저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 미국 부채 위기로 인해 다음 경기침체가 과거보다 훨씬 심각할 것이라고 경고하며, 시장 폭락 가능성을 강조했다. 은행 위기: 지역은행 실패와 예금 이탈은 약세장 초기 신호로 보이며, 시간이 지나면 더 커질 수 있다고 봤다. 다만 구체적 종목·가격 예측은 없었다. 미국 부채: 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이며 2008년 이후 부채가 급증해 다음 위기는 매우 나쁠 것이라고 주장했다. 영국의 1976년 IMF 구제 사례를 들며 미국도 장기적으로 과거만큼 강하지 않을 것이라 봤다. 북한·우즈베키스탄: 북한은 부채가 적어 기회가 있다고 했으나 현실적으로 투자 불가능하다고 인정했다. 우즈베키스탄에 투자 경험이 있으며 국가별 선별 투자를 강조했다. 금·은: 실물 금·은은 위기 시 보험 역할을 하므로 모두 일정량 보유가 좋다고 봤다. 현재 은을 더 사고 싶다고 했으며 은은 고점 대비 50~60% 하락 상태라고 언급했다. 금은 역사적 고점 부근이라며 하락 시 추가 매수 의향을 밝혔다. 암호화폐: 비트코인 등 암호화폐는 투자하지 않았으며, 디지털 화폐가 미래에 법정화폐를 대체할 수 있으나 정부가 통제권을 쥔다고 봤다. 단기 국채: 신뢰할 수 있는 국가의 국채는 위기 때 생존 수단이 될 수 있으나, 아이슬란드 크로나 사례처럼 국가 선택이 중요하다고 강조했다. 달러 패권: 어떤 통화도 100~150년 이상 정점에 머문 적이 없으며, 미국의 외환보유고 동결 등 정책이 탈달러 움직임을 가속한다고 봤다. 신흥국·원자재: 과거 10~15년간 대부분 국가가 상승했으나 주요 신흥국 중 뚜렷한 기회는 찾기 어렵다고 했다. 일본 주식은 보유 중이며 결국 상승할 것으로 봤다. 농산물은 장기 부진이 계속되었으나 가장 나쁜 자산에서 기회를 찾는 방식을 제시했다. 채권·주식·부동산 등 많은 자산이 버블 상태라고 봤다. 초보 투자자: 아는 분야에서 시작하고 핫팁을 피하며, 잘 아는 분야라면 인덱스 펀드가 효과적이라고 조언했다.
다듬은 글
hello everybody and welcome to the Vancouver resource investment conference Channel my name is Jesse day we're counting down to the next vric January 21st and 22nd but of course we're bringing you great guests each and every week and speaking of great guests today's guest is a legendary investor best-selling author co-founder of the quantum fund and creator of the Rogers International Commodities index among many other accolades Mr Jim Rogers thank you so much for coming on oh Jesse I'm delighted to be here delighted to have you and I want to get started with getting your take on the crisis in the banking sector the failure of regional Banks depositors fleeing those banks for too big to fail names such as JP Morgan and also fleeing those accounts to look for yield in money Mark Market funds short-term treasuries how big of a problem is this is this a systemic problem are we going to see more bank failures up ahead and what will be the end result of all of this well the way bear markets start or economic problems are the users aren't small someplace where people are watching a few weeks later a few months later they get bigger and bigger and then eventually it's on the evening news and everybody knows there's a problem this is not quite to that state yet but no it's another sign that eventually we're going to have another recession which we've always had and it's probably going to be very bad because there's so much debt in the system now so you should be worried but no I guess not Jesse because it's good for you you have job security somebody has to report all this so because this is very good for you you're going to tell us all what's happening right so speaking of the debt situation it seems like the U.S has a completely untenable debt situation there's been a fight in Washington over raising the debt ceiling but it seems like a big clown show how long can the fed and the government kick this can down the road or are we coming to the end of the road well Jesse you're exactly right the United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and it but it's been building for a while we had a problem in 2008 because of too much debt but Jesse as you know the dead has skyrocketed since 2008 so the next time we have a problem it's going to be very very very bad uh can they continue well I mean if you look at Britain 100 years ago it was the number one country in the world it's still there it did go bankrupt you know the Britain actually went bankrupt in 1976 had to be bailed out by the IMF down from being number one 50 years before so the us is going to be there uh you know in 50 years at 100 years but it's not going to be what it was 50 years ago I don't like saying that I'm an American citizen but I have to face facts so you've mentioned that you see a big market crash up ahead potentially the biggest in your lifetime do you think this is going to be a global phenomenon or are there any parts of the world that could be more resilient to the effects of a recession well the U.S has a problem the world has a problem I mean some people North Korea will have less of a problem than many places because North Korea doesn't have so much debt nobody will lend money to North Korea but most of the world will be affected one way or the other and could there be a light at the end of this tunnel so to speak um after every recession after every massive bear Market throughout the history of the stock market it is Then followed by economic recovery and a bull market so is that the same thing or could we be in more of an extended recession or bear Market than we've seen in the past well it'd be the worst in my lifetime I'm sure of that because the debt is so so so much worse than it's ever been in my lifetime uh and will the world recover yes the world will recover uh some people will come out better off and some will come out worse off I I'm afraid the U.S will come out worse off because the debt is so unbelievably high and that will have consequences but some people come out better I'm not sure who I'm looking every day I mean I haven't made investments in Uzbekistan news back and stand will probably come out better but much of the world will come out worse yeah I have heard interesting things about Uzbekistan and an investment in that country as well recently um from some other people so what role do you think gold and silver will play in this economic crisis this debt crisis that we're facing is it important that everybody have some physical gold and silver on hand to protect themselves from inflation currency to basement and and have some sound money in your view uh I have some silver I have some gold as well I'm not buying at the moment but I will buy more if they go down uh yes everybody should have some silver and gold throughout history all of us peasants we know that when things go bad we better have some silver in the closet you better have some gold under the bed because they if nothing else will come through the very bad times they may not make you a fortune on the other hand they might depending on what happens but no in my view everybody should certainly have some gold and silver as an insurance policy if nothing else yeah absolutely agree with you do you have any thoughts on cryptocurrencies on bitcoin you know they they crypto seemed to be the new hot Trend we saw quite a rise in in that market and then uh catastrophic collapse um what what do you say to those people who look to something like Bitcoin as sound money and potential competition for precious metals well I everybody should invest in what they want and what they know about I have no investments in crypto long or short and never have uh in my and the crypto people will tell you that it's going to be the new money and every country is working on computer money probably what you will and computer money is certainly going to replace other money eventually not now but that everybody's working towards that but yes when the U.S says okay guys this is your money now I don't think the us is going to say but if you want to use that money over there you can use that money too you know they don't like to lose control their Monopoly so as trading Vehicles sure uh although many have already disappeared and gone to zero but I do not see their computer money replacing government computer money because the governments have the guns I don't particularly like the fact that the governments have the guns but I have to face facts yeah that makes a lot of sense so I I touched on depositors taking their money out of banks in search of yield do you think that short-term treasuries which are paying up to five percent are a good place to park cash and potentially wait in this uncertain Market environment well throughout history and sound treasury bills in sound countries have been ways to get through hard times in difficult times you have to be sure you have the right treasury bills if you have the wrong country you can suffer badly there are many people in 2007 who saw problems coming they put a lot of money into Icelandic krona of yielding High giving high yields but then ryceland went bankrupt so it didn't do much good in fact it hurts you it'll be sure you have the right country when you have the treasury bills but treasury bills certainly historically have been a way to survive what's up guys quick break my name is Jay Martin I'm the CEO of Cambridge house and the host of The Vancouver resource investment conference I wanted to quickly Point your attention to a link right beneath this video where you can subscribe to our new Weekly Newsletter if you want to better understand the minds of the best investors in the resource space subscribe to this newsletter I author it personally every Sunday and I love writing it hit that link below to subscribe all right back to the interview is this a time to strictly be patient and play defense to focus on preserving wealth and do you think that after the bear Market the crash has shown its full force they'll be buying opportunities up ahead in certain sectors I know they will be buying opportunities there always are and there are I hope there always will be I hope we both live long enough to see many many many bear markets and buying opportunities yes but one must be careful as the U.S is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and so when you somebody like the US goes in has problems especially next time or the next few times it's going to be very serious because the debt is so high and there will be dislocations 100 years ago Britain was the number one country in the world they went bankrupt in 1976.
well if you own British assets you had to be extremely careful because they went from pop to problematically now not everybody in Britain collapsed I mean the Beatles never left you know the Beatles they didn't had a very prosperous time so if you pick it right you can come through no matter how bad things are right that's great advice um I want to get your take on the trend of dedolarization that seems to be occurring we're starting to see Nations trade outside of the US dollar for energy is this going to have a measurable impact on the dollar status as a global Reserve currency or is the US dollar stronger than that well no currency in history is stayed on top for more than 100 150 years or so and the US has been on top for several decades unfortunately Washington is doing things which will accelerate to turn away from the dollar you know the world's Reserve currency is supposed to be completely neutral anybody can use it for anything but Washington is changing that status and if they get angry at you they cut you off and they either confiscate your dollars or they just say you cannot use them so many people including our friends are saying wait a minute wait a minute this could happen to us too and so it's accelerating the move for people to find something to compete with the US dollar it's always happened in history and unfortunately it's accelerating now because of Washington's actions yeah and it's definitely opening a Pandora's Box there because once you start seizing FX reserves in the case of of Russia for one reason it kind of opens the door to doing it again so countries are starting to think well what if we do something the US doesn't like and and that could change given who's in power and a number of other factors so I definitely hear what you're saying there um you know we're hearing a lot about the emergence of a new multi-polar world where the Legacy brand Western countries are in Decline and Eastern countries and other developing Emerging Markets are starting to rise we're seeing people move from poverty into a new middle class in places like India so how much Credence do you give to this View and at the moment you touched on Uzbekistan earlier are there any other countries outside of North America that you see opportunity in at the moment well there are always people rising uh I see great opportunity in North Korea but you and I can't I can't do anything in North Korea anyway and it may not be wise at this at this juncture there are a couple of countries in Africa that are probably hitting bottom Zimbabwe may be hitting bottom but I don't see any major what many people we call serious countries rising at the moment most of them have had a very good time in the since 2009 because you know we hit the world hit bottom America printed money many people printed money so most countries have risen during the past 10 or 15 years I'm having trouble finding anybody that's a major country I own Japanese shares Japan will probably make new house but before too much longer but other than Japan and Uzbekistan I don't see many places yeah and then Warren Buffett taking a look at Japan and potentially investing there as well I believe at the moment and uh North Korea that would be the ultimate contrarian play if there was any way to get access to some sort of stock market there um so you you are the creator of the Rogers International Commodities index you've written books on Commodities best-selling books um so I'm wondering which Commodities at the moment do you see greatest opportunity and I know you've talked about agriculture in the past obviously we've discussed the precious metals um what what are your thoughts there well you know I mentioned silver if I were buying silver or gold I would buy silver now it's down 50 or 60 from its all-time high gold is near its all-time high I will buy more of both I hope uh but if I were buying today I would buy silver yes most commodity I mean if you look around the world oil has been very strong most Commodities have been strong in recent years except agriculture agriculture has been and is continuing to be a disaster so I would look there my way of doing it is to get out a list and see which is the bottom which is done worse and then that's where I started looking because that is sometimes a way to make money but it bonds I mean bonds are a bubble everywhere in the world stocks are have been forming bubbles may be still in a bubble you know property oh my gosh New Zealand South Korea many places properties above them it's hard to find some cheap for me it's hard to find cheap assets these days so what one of the questions we were getting at the last Vancouver resource investment conference we had a lot of new attendees a lot of younger new attendees and more than we expected actually and one of the the questions we got when it comes to Commodities and resources investing was where do I start what what how should I educate myself um for a new investor how would you suggest they begin their journey in in both investing in general and the commodity space well if a new investors and everybody stay with what you know even if you're a new investor you know a lot about something whether it's fashion or cars or something start there because you already are ahead of the game you you spend probably every day reading about cars or something so start there and when you succeed changes that you know will do well because you will be keen on you're very keen on fashion or cars or whatever that's where you start don't listen to Hot Tips Everybody Wants a Hot Chip oh Jesse if hot chips continue to the poor house please stay away from our tips stay with what you know now some people will say oh that's boring be boring if you want to be successful be boring don't worry about it and do you think something like an index fund or ETFs uh present kind of a good opportunity for a newer investor who maybe hasn't had the time to really dive deep into a sector to kind of dip their toe in the water and get broad exposure to a to a sector well I mean if you know about about the sector yes index investing has been demonstrated over and over again to be a much better way for many people to invest especially people who are new and learning but again if you are going to invest in a Metals index and you don't know anything about Metals I urge you not to do it if you learn about Metals then an index fund is a great way to invest many Studies have shown that index investing outperforms most professional investors most of the time well Jim thank you so much for joining us today so much wisdom shared and we really appreciate you sharing it with our audience today it was my pleasure just as you well know I hope we can do it again sometime me too you have a great day Jim thank you thank you thank you thank you be careful be careful
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