Market has 'all the ingredients for a face ripper', says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

요약 보기

연준 긴축 부담 완화와 유가·금리 안정으로 주식 강세 전환 기대. 지난주가 고통의 정점이었다는 판단. 유가 하락→채권금리 하락→주가 상승 흐름을 강조. 디젤 등 에너지 비용 우려는 남아 있음. AI 관련 주가 재상승 및 S&P500 8,000 돌파 가능성 제시. 심리지표(AAII 약세 우위)를 근거로 아직 매수 여력이 있다고 봄.

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01. And that brings us to the main question at the beginning of this hour. Is this the beginning of a new era for AI trading? Well, your first guest thinks this is the start of at least a strong rally at the end of the month. We'll invite Fundstrat's head of research, Tom Lee, who is also a CNBC writer.

02. Today can truly be called a stormy day. Not only with stocks, but also with cryptocurrencies. We'll get to that in a minute. Was there some catalyst I missed? What, what happened? You know, Brian, I think last week was the peak of the pain and pressure because the Fed was raising rates very aggressively and oil prices and interest rates were high.

03. And as you know, over the past few days and over the weekend, oil has cooled off, and rates have been behaving calmly. And now we have a maximally hawkish Fed that could back down. So I think there are all the ingredients here for strong growth, especially given how oversold we have been . Is this...

04. And I say this as an energy expert , I understand this, but how important is the drop in oil prices ? Because it reduces bond yields . Bond yields follow oil. So, oil is getting cheaper, bond yields are falling, and stocks are rising. Is this some kind of formula? Yes. I mean, yes, because, you know, if you look at the components of the CPI that are still overvalued, like air travel and transportation services, they're all energy-related.

05. And, you know, the JP Morgan report last week that they don't even have a baseline forecast for oil just told everyone: the price of oil is high, and deal with it. And I think that was also a peak pain point. Do you also consider diesel fuel? Because when you look at the price of diesel, and it was a shock for me even when filling up with unleaded gasoline to see that the price of diesel is higher than, I think, 6.80, when I saw 6.81.

06. Mhm. This is shocking. And I'm hearing from completely unrelated industries, like the gambling industry, that people are worried about what their construction costs will be because of the impact of diesel prices. Yes, and diesel, as you know, is widely used as an industrial fuel. I mean, yes, that's a problem.

07. And if there is a shortage, you can't really replace diesel. So I think there are good reasons why people should be concerned about energy. Yes, but today they are not worried. So, today, the topic of AI is back in full swing, and a little later we'll have Stephen Beard from Morgan Stanley on the program.

08. Well, let's...let's take a shower. That would be something. You know what? Stephen Bird, listen, let's add another voice to this important market day. Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets, who is also a CNBC contributor, will join us right now. Jay Woods, thank you very much for joining us . I know that deep down you are a technical expert.

09. You love graphics. So, was there a trigger again today, a catalyst? It happened somehow unexpectedly. Yes, it happened, and it's technology. I wrote an article this weekend and called the market a real game of nerves between the " bulls" and the " bears." We broke through the 7600 level last week after the Fed decision, then recovered, and now we are breaking through it again.

10. So you have to look at the leadership that Tom talked about. The "Magic Seven" is reaching new highs. And then look at those stocks that could lead to a rapid market rally. They are in our game. And now I want to cool down a bit on this rapid rise. Energy prices fell for one day today. Nothing has changed.

11. In your opinion, what has changed today? Nothing. We are risk-averse. There is hope that the Trump-Xi summit will go well. There are almost no earnings reports this week, except for Cracker Barrel and General Mills. Costco is an interesting company, but the real test of strength awaits us next week when Micron reports.

12. Micron is a stock, one of the ten largest in the world, that has the potential to grow by another 10%. I think this, along with the rally in the semiconductor and software sectors today, will bring us back to the old high around 7,800 points for the S&P 500, but I don't think technology alone will be enough to reach new highs and such a rapid rise.

13. This is a good rally, don't get me wrong, but not to the extent of the midterm elections, when we should be fully invested in this market. Yes, I agree with Jay . I think there's fuel here. I may disagree that the sentiment is still quite bearish. You know, last week AAII had more " bears", meaning the majority, and this is actually the lowest level of sentiment.

14. And I know that our clients have reduced their risks. There was a lot of risk-off because they don't want to buy stocks when the Fed raises rates. Therefore, I believe that people are at a disadvantage. I think this has the potential to push the S&P above 8,000 by the end of the month. But AMD has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion today.

15. Meta is up 25% this month, Intel is up 35% this month, and as I recall, it's up 11% today. So what gives you confidence that there is still room for growth here? Well, I mean, these are examples of companies that people have written off since late June, saying, "Hey, these are big players that AI has already outgrown." And then look how explosively they took off.

16. Many companies still have a lot of catching up to do. And, you know, AI stocks are still below their June highs. So not only do I think the leadership will come from there, but as you know, crypto movement usually leads the S&P movement by about a month. And you know, crypto made a pretty big jump in August, and I think that's why we're seeing such a surge in stocks in September.