저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 에드 야데니는 AI 조정에도 S&P500 연말 목표 7,900을 유지하며 '신중하되 과도한 비관은 아님'을 권하고, 미국 비중은 중립으로 낮추고 해외(특히 신흥국)에 관심을 둔다. [시장 전반·목표치] S&P500 목표를 기존 8,400에서 중기(내년 중반)까지 7,900으로 하향. 2026년 예상 주당순이익(EPS) 425 수렴 가능성 강조, 현재 424.19로 근접. 2028년 EPS 추정치 492.62, 2030년 500 가정 시 10,000 도달 논리 제시하나 2028 추정치는 지나치게 높다고 평가. [AI 섹터] AI 기술 자체는 실재하며 지속 가능하다고 봄. 다만 데이터센터·칩 투자에 대한 매출 수익성 우려(가트너 등)로 AI 채권 시장이 흔들리는 중. 중국 오픈소스 모델 가격 경쟁이 반도체 마진을 압박할 수 있음. 반도체는 경기순환주 성격이 유지되며 이익 정점에서 PER이 가장 낮다고 설명. 조정 구간이 기술주 매수 기회일 수 있다고 언급. [금리·인플레이션] 미 10년물 국채금리 5% 상회, 실질금리(TIPS) 2.9%로 높음. 금리 상승은 주로 실질금리 주도이며 경제 성장 호조를 반영한다는 해석. 시장 기반 기대인플레이션은 2.5~3%로 안정적. 미 재정적자는 연간 1.99조 달러로 지속 불가능하다고 경고하나 위기 시점은 불확실. [채권 시장·유럽] 프랑스 국채 금리 상승과 독일 대비 스프레드 확대를 주목. 그리스는 2010년 40%에서 안정화된 사례를 언급하며 프랑스의 재정 문제 해결 압력 가능성을 제시. [지역 배분] 글로벌 시장 비중을 '시장 비중(중립)'으로 하향 조정. 미국은 MSCI 내 65%로 과도하다고 보고 중립 유지. 유럽은 프랑스 우려로 관심 낮음. 신흥국은 매력적이나 한국·대만 강세로 왜곡. 일본은 부진. 전 세계 기업 이익 호조에도 PER은 하락(FEMO 대비 FOMO 약함). [중국] 수출·수입은 급증하나 실질 소매판매는 1년째 정체. 고령화와 부동산 자산 가치 하락이 소비를 억제. 부동산 지수 급락 및 신용 시스템 붕괴 가능성을 잠재적 쇼크 요인으로 지목. [실적·기타] 3분기 실적 시즌 호조, 4분기 성장률 추정 29.8%(평가이익 제외 시 약 25%). 러셀2000은 경기침체 우려와 금리 상승에 민감해 부진. 나스닥100 매수 후 승자 독식 구조 기대. 금은 중앙은행 매수 기대에 기반한 강세 논리를 유지하나 최근 금리 상승으로 조정. 중동 전쟁 확대·호르무즈 해협 긴장이 유가 상방 리스크. 연준은 금리 2회 인상 후 중립금리 도달 예상.
다듬은 글
Hello everybody. It's actually Sunday evening October 18th at 9:49 p.m. here in Long Island. And um I wasn't expecting Max to join me, but he insisted. So, Max Max is here with us. And I'm doing a lot of marketing or visiting with our accounts around the country this time of year. It's kind of the season for it.
And as a result, I'm not going to be able to do this live on Monday. So, hence we're recording it now and you can uh tune in tune in whenever you like, but I'm sure many of you will be looking for it on Monday and um not much is likely to change between now and then, but you never know. Things are happening off awfully fast these days and certainly the markets can make your head spin, especially with what's going on in AI.
The AI trade has totally gone bonkers last week and maybe the week before that. Um I think everybody's basically has AI fatigue. Every single day there seems to be some something new about AI that changes everybody's opinion. Uh and right now I think there's a lot of concern that has been expressed by out research outfits like Gartner that when you project how much the hyperscalers and neo cloud companies are planning on spending on databases that the revenue projections you've got to meet just seem awfully unrealistic.
And so all of a sudden in the bond vigilantes have been focusing on AI bonds. Isn't that interesting? Uh for for the past few months we've all been kind of focusing on the issue of sovereign debt, government bond yields here and other places. It certainly looks as though there's still a problem and over in Europe, particularly in France, with regards to the issue of uh the debt the debt crisis that they're that they're experiencing over there.
Uh but here in the United States the AI correction uh or well, I guess for some stocks it's more like a bear market, but the AI correction has kind of brought safe haven buying back into the bond market. So the bad news if you own AI stocks is they just got whacked pretty hard the past couple of weeks.
The good news is if you were worrying about bond yields going up up and away to levels that would hit the economy, maybe cause a credit crunch and a recession, looks like we got a reprieve on that. And suddenly bonds with a 10-year bonds with a handle of some something a little little over 5% suddenly look very very attractive.
So you know, I I'm I remain positive here. I I did write on September 15th that uh uh we should all proceed with caution. Uh had concerns about the bond market, had concerns about higher for longer oil prices as oil prices went back up and the uh risks of re-escalation in the war Well, it never really de-escalated when it comes to uh uh the Strait of Hormuz.
Uh there's still a lot of uh uh commotion military commotion going on with uh the Iranians trying to take out cargo ships. And one mine uh one one ship hit a mine and and sank. Uh but the concern is uh uh President Trump has said that uh he will uh address the Iran issue after the midterms. Well, uh he could surprise us and do it beforehand.
Uh of course, the Iranians could surprise him and say they're they're not going to wait until the uh until Trump decides what he's going to do after the midterms. Uh they might launch a late October surprise. It's October 18th. Uh there's a few more days between now and the midterm elections that could be affected uh by another flare-up in in the in the Middle East.
Um and then of course, um there is the the debt question. Uh it's been around for a while. The latest uh numbers, I think it's through the um the 12 months through September, the uh federal deficit is total $1.99 trillion. I I mean, what are we doing running $2 trillion deficits in a growing economy?
It's just uh it's not a sustainable course. Everybody agrees with that. The only question is um when is it really going to cause trouble? Um maybe it's doing so already with the bond yield being up above 5%, but our view is that uh the bond market in the United States to a large extent reflects better than expected economic growth.
And that's confirmed by the TIPS yield. Um Just about all of the increase in the bond yield, the nominal bond yield for the 10-year US Treasury uh so far this year, almost all of it has been attributable to the TIPS yield. And nobody really has a particularly good model of what it is that drives the TIPS yield.
But in over say over the past 3 years it seems to be tracking very closely with the weekly economic indicator that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York puts out which shows the year-over-year percent change. It's it's a proxy for the year-over-year percent change in quarterly real GDP. So we don't really have to wait around for the quarterly real GDP.
We can kind of follow this WEI weekly economic indicator to get at some handle on the growth rate of real GDP on a on a weekly basis. So again the TIPS yield is tracking that very very closely. And the TIPS yield itself is running uh uh extremely high at 2. 9% um And so And the difference of course is widely viewed as a inflation proxy.
So the inflation proxy itself has been running around 2 and 1/2 to 3%. Doesn't look as though from market-based measures of inflationary expectations that the problem here is that inflationary expectations are getting elevated which is interesting cuz uh well I mean we we saw an example of that last week, right?
CPI and the PPI came out hotter than expected. Now of course coincidentally with that the AI trade started to unwind. Um And maybe that kind of offset things, but um if you're buying a 10-year bond and believe it or not there are actually investors who buy a 10-year bond to hold for 10 years uh you have to have some inflation expectation and uh that's not necessarily going to be affected by the latest CPI and PPI.
It looks as though investors again based on market indicators of inflation expectations are staying pretty calm about inflation to the half to 3% seems kind of what what what they're betting on. So So where where else do we have to well let's where does this all take us in terms of the stock market?
Well, we're feeling fairly good about telling you to turn somewhat cautious. So we didn't tell you that it's going to be a bear market. We didn't tell you that it's going to be a correction. Cautious is really more a pullback and cautious covers a lot of scenarios from just the garden variety pullback to a correction to a a bear market.
But so far I think it's been good advice and then last week we wrote continue to be to proceed with caution with regards to this market. On the other hand it is with this pullback, we are getting some interesting buying opportunities and particularly in the technology area I would think. Look, I I think it's very hard to uh figure out the best way to invest in the AI phenomenon.
AI itself is not going to fail. AI is the real deal. It's a sustainable technology. It's a probably a revolutionary technology in all sorts of ways especially once you we combine it with other technologies like humanoid robotics, automation too much into the hype mode that people like Elon Musk get us into.
But it's the real deal. The question is how do you invest in it? And you know, one of the issues is the big issue is all this money that's being invested in data centers and chips. Is that going to deliver a revenue stream that will pay for that that will give it a decent rate of return? And we're kind of still got some issues.
Not still, but there's an ongoing issue with Chinese open source models and they are much cheaper from everything I've I've read about them. And so there is it's it's a competitive marketplace and competitive marketplaces margins don't stay as high as we're seeing in some of these areas of the AI trade, particularly semiconductors.
You would think that capacity will expand and and we'll get more semiconductors. And indeed the semiconductors are trading the way they always did in the past as cyclicals so that when their earnings are at a maximum, that's when the PEs are the are the lowest. And there's still an open debate about whether semiconductors are still cyclicals or whether they are now more secular in nature in terms of their their earnings.
Nobody knows for sure and so as a result of that when the market when these stocks have done as well as they have, naturally there's going to be profit taking along the way. Well, let's look at some some charts. You know, the the bottom line is the bottom line. We're we we moved out of our 8,400 forecast for the S&P 500 back in September 15th when we started saying let's be proceed with caution, we moved that out to the middle of next year.
We're using 7,900 now, which looks pretty bullish right now given this the setback in the market the past well, the past week for sure. Um and we still think the economy is in good shape. Still think that earnings are haven't changed our earnings outlook. It's really more the the issue of the of valuation.
Let's look at some charts as we typically do. All I got to do is find the sharing button. There it is. So, there we go. And and for a change we're actually going to start with our global market call. You know, uh weekends uh then I don't know how it happened, but we seem to be have more work to do during the weekends than during the week.
Though we're always we seem to be working 24/7 these days. There's always something to write about and that's what all of us enjoy it doing at your Danny Research writing and uh after thinking about what's going on, sharing our thoughts with you and getting feedback. Um so, um on the weekends uh we typically we for a while there we were just writing US market call focusing on the US market.
And then it dawned on us that maybe it's a good idea to keep abreast of what's going on globally. So, now we have global market call and now we also have uh US sector call, which is basically overweight or underweight the sectors in the S&P 500. And then of course as as always we have the um uh the week ahead uh quick takes that we put out.
And then on top of all that we toss out an advanced copy of the morning briefing on Sundays. Um I hope it's not too much. Every time I I travel and talk to our accounts, I ask them are we writing too much? And then everybody seems to be telling us that they're satisfied with what what what they're getting.
Well, um it is somewhat satisfying to see bond yields taking a a drop around the world. They have been remarkably synchronized um around the world. There's been some widening significant widening in the spread, I should say, in recent weeks. As you can see, this is French uh bond yields, 10-year sovereigns versus uh German bond yields.
This is Italy. And this is Greece. Uh uh Greek yields are actually below uh the um yields in France and Italy. Uh it's important to keep that in mind. It wasn't that long ago in 2010 when um the Greek bond yield uh got up to 40%. And they got up to 40% uh uh as the bond vigilantes try to get the attention of Greek politicians to put Greece on a more sustainable fiscal course.
And And apparently they've done that. And they uh the Greek economy has benefited from that. Uh the bond yield has come down substantially. Now, I think we potentially have the same thing brewing, particularly in France, where French bond yields are going up. And the spreads are widening dramatically.
And the question is what bond yields is it going to take to get the attention of the French politicians that they've got to uh put France on a proper course. And as you know from recent events, it's pretty hard to for the politicians to do that cuz every time they they they talk about uh little fiscal conservatism, um you get uh riots in the street.
So, it's a situation obviously needs to be watched. Um meanwhile, um uh well, I the the title of this piece, by the way, uh is kind of important relative to uh those of you who like to uh stay abreast of what we're thinking. We're actually downgrading go global go global uh to market weight at the end of last year.
Uh we suggested uh uh going from um underweight go global to uh overweight go global. Um Another way of putting it is instead of being overweight the US, uh we recommended uh switching to uh looking for opportunities overseas. And um uh we had been in the uh stay-home camp uh since 2010 uh through the end of 2025, and worked great until 2025, and then the go global started to outperform.
And uh we we looked at things and seemed to us that that was that the US was getting kind of pricey, getting to be kind of um over overweight uh in the actual uh um mar- MSCI. So, here's here's the chart we were looking at back then, and we update on a regular basis. This is market cap shares of all country world MSCI.
So, this is the US, and you can see that that peaked back here in early 2025. Uh the Economist wrote a couple about two or three cover stories about American exceptionalism back here. And then, of course, in 2025, uh that whole thesis uh was um wasn't discredited, but it was it was tested. And now, well, maybe the US still is exceptional.
So, this thing's back up. But, I just I don't know. I I still don't feel uh like I really want to recommend overweighting uh the US to the rest of the world when it already accounts uh for 65% of the MSCI. So, we're basically saying neutral. A market weight the US, which is still quite quite a hefty position.
And then Europe with what's going on in France we uh we wouldn't be too excited about that part of the world. Emerging markets still look interesting though they've been somewhat distorted by the extraordinary performance both up and down of South Korea, also Taiwan to a certain extent. And Japan has been kind of like lackluster as you can see here.
Um let's see if there's anything else. Oh yeah, meanwhile the global economy is doing awfully well. This is the all country world ex-US forward revenues and and forward earnings per share. Look at that, that's quite quite impressive. Uh but some of that is uh the um uh This is forward earnings per share.
So, some of that is obviously South Korea and Taiwan, but not all of it. And the overall revenues picture is also quite quite strong. Uh And it's just kind of the same story when you look at the rest of the world. Uh the the world ex-the US the forward earnings have been strong. The stock market's at a double-digit gain, but the PE's gone down.
So, it kind of around the world as earnings have been better than expected. Uh investors haven't been chasing them. So, FEMO has been offset by FOMO. FEMO is fabulous earnings momentum. FOMO's fear of missing out and you're not seeing you're seeing less fear of missing out cuz nobody's chasing PE's up.
They're actually the PE's are going down. Um meanwhile the speaking of PE's, this is Uh, the US MSCI PE versus the world. So, things are definitely getting getting cheaper. Uh, so it's been an unusual market as we all know. Um, earnings have been uh, fabulous. Um, and yet the PEs have gone down. Uh, we have a piece here.
Uh, every now and well, I guess every every week we like to have some kind of a focus on on some areas. So, this is a China focus. Uh, China's exports are absolutely soaring. So, are their imports. So, um, you can argue that some of the strength of the global economy is attributable uh, to China. Not only are they selling more to the rest of the world, but they're also buying more from the rest of the world.
However, um, the um, domestic consumption remains very weak. Uh, real retail sales are actually uh, flat. Inflation adjusted retail sales are flat. They've been that way for about a year. Um, so they can't get consumer spending going. And that's because it's a rapidly aging population. And meanwhile, they still have a tremendous amount of their wealth.
The consumers have a tremendous amount of their wealth in uh, real estate. And you can tell we we watch the real estate stock index over there. And uh, I don't know. It looks like it could take a a dive here. Uh, China could be the next kind of surprise in terms of what could what could be a shocker out there.
And it could be that uh, China's credit system kind of kind of implodes. And the stock market generally speaking over there is uh, has has been weak. Let's move on here back to the US of A. Um, yes, AI is too big to fail is our title. Uh, it it it sure felt like it was failing last week. But uh, we're trying to uh, our position is that it's it's the real It's you know, some companies like Coreweave and others are kind of get getting punished here by the bond vigilantes with higher bond yields, but that's a good thing.
Isn't that what we want? We want the capital markets to be free to express an opinion and to judge what credit ratings really should be. That you know, by the time Moody's and the others get around to it, the market's already got it kind of figured out. So, we want the cost of capital to be too high for highly indebted companies where the concept hasn't been proven to be a sure sure money maker.
And that's again, that's that's a good thing if it slows down some of the excesses in the AI trade. And again, I think that the market that in turn has actually brought sovereign or government bond yields down. The the two-year stopped going up, it's kind of flattened out. Yield curve is flattened out as well.
Now, let's do what we do every week and look at earnings and it's it's still FEMA, it's still fabulous earnings momentum. This is the 20 2027 estimate. Up up and away. The forward earnings is what drives the market. PE times Z is forward earnings times forward PE. And so, we will converge to that, we think we're going to get to 425.
Let me make this a little bit bigger for my eyes and let me put on my other glasses. So, what do we have here? So, we've got Oh, look at that. We got 424 and 19 cents. So, we're we're just a couple of pennies away from 425, which has been our forecast. So, we did lower our our PE assumptions for the rest of the year, but we stuck uh with our 425 and looks like so far so good.
We're forward earnings will converge to that. Uh this is the amazing thing and then we discussed this uh last week. I asked Joe Abbott to update this chart with uh 2028. Uh we usually do that around September and so here we go. And you can see the 2028 estimate is um talk about exuberant. The question is is it irrational exuberance?
And you can see that um that number is up to $492.62 for 2028. Okay. Now, we're we're we're forecasting $500 for 2030. We think the market will be discounting 2030 at the end of 2029, the end of the decade. Um and so if it's if at the end of 2029, it's discounting $500 for 2030, 50 * 20 is 10,000. That's how we get to our uh forecast that uh what we'll get that by by the end of the decade, but I mean I I just uh think this number is way too high uh for that the analysts who are getting a bit irrational exuberant.
On the other hand, um they do have a tendency to be right as long as there's no recession and I'm definitely in the no recession camp already 2020s and all that. Well, here we are in the third uh quarter earning season. We got the bank earnings uh kind of a mishmash, kind of a bit of a mix, overall decent.
Um didn't really change uh last week's uh number for uh third quarter growth of 24 24%. Though I I mean this is interesting. I'm not quite sure what took this up, but they went to 29.8% for the fourth quarter And they're not putting in mark-to-market assumptions. That's not what they do. That's what happened back here when actual results during the second quarter were boosted dramatically by mark-to-market for Alphabet and um Alphabet and Amazon, the two A's.
Uh so this 50% number is more like 25% excluding that. Meanwhile, a little bit of uh pause here maybe if you take a magnifying glass. Uh but it sure looks as though we're still up, up, and away for earnings. Uh small mid caps and uh and large caps. So why is Russell 2000 acting so poorly? Cuz it's tends to be sensitive to recession concerns and the upturn in um uh in bond yields for a while was doing that.
Now maybe the um uh mess in the AI trade has got them spooked. Um people ask me about uh you know, well how do you how do you trade the how do you invest in AI? And my bottom line is it's just too hard to figure out who the winners and who the losers are. So let's just uh buy the Nasdaq 100 and put it away figuring that the winners will um continue to win to to grow and win and the losers will just uh drop out of the race, maybe go out of business.
The PEs are down. What else here? Um Yeah, well some of you really like this chart. This goes back to the beginning of the bull market in October of uh '12 uh 2022 and you can see this is uh the S&P 500 uh is uh is has gone up, up, and up. Um and uh increasingly it's been the forward earnings. Uh the FEMO that's been driving it.
So this is female and this is FOMO going the other way. Let's see. Oh, um, yeah, I mean, everybody complains about the concentration, but I mean, if you look at this chart of the MAGs versus XMags, uh, the XMags are still ahead for the year 14.1% uh, while the MAGs are up 10.2%. Now, of course, the XMags include some semiconductor names in there that aren't in the MAGs.
Uh, sentiment that's kind of kind of kind of mixed. And I think that's Yeah, oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's Let's look at copper. Uh, no signal from copper yet that uh, was going on uh, in the equity market and AI is disturbing the outlook for copper, which is, I think, very AI sensitive. And uh, then I wanted to go Oh, this is obviously so the the everybody's becoming an expert on diesel and where it's produced and what the price is, obviously cuz it has an inflationary impact.
Uh, I just wanted to go to gold here. I'm not giving up on gold yet. Uh, I've uh, confessed to you many times that I'm no expert on gold, uh, but when it broke above 2,000, we turned bullish figuring that the only thing uh, that we knew that uh, made that was bullish for sure was that the central banks are uh, particularly uh, Russia, China, Iran, uh, the central banks of countries that we don't get along with are buying gold.
Uh, so, that worked pretty good, got us up to about 5,500. Then the war broke out and uh, some central banks like in Turkey had to sell gold because their currency was under attack uh, from higher oil prices and their vulnerability to that. Uh, and then the recent backup in bond yields globally that uh, also dropped on gold.
Although, uh, why gold should depend on interest rates when uh, it's central banks that are buying gold and not people that are buying them and have to pay an interest charge to store it. Um or finance it. Uh but I just want to bring to your attention kind of an interesting pattern here during this bull market about halfway through.
We had that little hiccup, another hiccup over here in this bull market, another one over here. So, that's it. Maybe what it's going to take is for the bond yields to stabilize and then the central bank buying will start pushing this thing higher. Oh, that isn't it. There's also the topic for the morning briefing today was question for the Fed, where's Waldo?
And a good part of it was written by Elias and did a really good job, I thought you might want to have a look at it. But it kind of reprises everything we've been saying about the neutral rate and where the Fed is. We think two more rate hikes should get us back to neutral and then ask us again. We think that that could be it.
So, again, I'm actually recording this Sunday evening, October 18th. Max is listening very attentively, as you can see in the back. Um doing some traveling to visit accounts various parts of the country the past few weeks going through the end of the year. Uh so, this time around I decided to record.
So, be no no Q&A, but uh you can always send me an email and we can always write about it. Thank you, everybody. Have a good week.
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