Don’t Sell at the Bottom Ever Again (Do This Instead) | Howard Marks | Stocks | Investment

요약 보기

시장 단기 등락은 기업 실적보다 투자자 심리에 좌우되며, 기업 이익은 레버리지로 경기보다 변동성이 크고 주가는 감정(공포·탐욕)에 의해 이익보다 더 크게 출렁인다. 몬스터 음료는 2001~2007년 약 130배 상승하는 동안 20% 이상 조정이 8번, 50% 하락도 있었으나 감정적으로 매도하지 않은 투자자만 수익을 얻었다. 따라서 감정 통제가 투자에서 핵심이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. The market was up 200 because today people became more optimistic or it's down 200 because people became more depressed. It is psychology that determines The memos don't contain forecasts. They don't generally contain a dissection of of securities, individuals or groups or anything like that. Most of what the memos are about is investor behavior.

02. I was talking with Professor Minnis before we started and we talked about the fact that the the economy if you graph it out kind of looks like this. It's an upward sloping line that grow it has an innate secular growth rate underlying and small fluctuations. So the economy grows 2% a year on average.

03. Sometimes three, sometimes one, sometimes maybe four, sometimes maybe minus two. But clearly the range of outcomes is is modest. So if you do it on the right scale the fluctuations are small. Then if you graph corporate profits, they look like this. Corporate profits fluctuate much more than the economy even though most of the movements in corporate profits are determined by the economy.

04. Why why do they fluctuate more? And the answer is that companies have leverage. They have financial leverage which means that a certain change in the in the profits of the company at here after paying off the bond holders makes the return to the shareholders much more volatile. And they have operating leverage.

05. Since a bunch of the costs are fixed, if the if the volume doubles, the profits quadruple. If the volume goes in half, the profits disappear. So companies are leveraged and profits are much more volatile than earnings. Then if you graph the stock market, it looks like this. You know, up and down crazily.

06. Um and that's what investors really care about in the short run. Why are stock prices so much more volatile than corporate profits which if you think about it when you buy a stock, all you're buying is a share of corporate profits, shouldn't they reflect the same volatility? Why should the the price of a share of profits be more volatile than the profits themselves?

07. And the answer is that you know, Richard Feynman, the great physicist, once said that physics is easy because physics would be much harder if electrons had feelings. The market is composed of one thing. Any market. People. People have feelings. So they get excited and they bid the value of a share of corporate profits very high.

08. Then they get depressed and they price it very low. So it naively people think that the changes in stock prices are determined by corporate events. By fundamentals. And if you watch TV the announcer says the stock market was up 200 today because Tesla had a great announcement. Or the stock market was down 200 today because it looks like inflation is is raging.

09. The proper answer is the market was up 200 because today people became more optimistic. Or it's down 200 because people became more depressed. It is psychology that that determines. So what a lot of my attention in my senior status is directed at trying to figure out what's going on in the market today in terms of investor psychology and behavior and what does that tell us about the proper behavior for ourselves.

10. Before you skip this video, listen to this 130X stock story. Let's look at Monster Beverage, one of the greatest multi-bagger ever. Between 2001 and 2007, this stock delivered around 130X returns. Now here's the interesting part. If you look at the EPS growth during this period, it was steady, gradual and consistent moving upwards.

11. There were no wild swings, just strong business performance compounding over time. But when you look at the stock price chart, the journey was anything but smooth. During this 130X run, the stock corrected more than 20% eight different times and at one point it even fell more than 50%. Think about that.

12. The business was growing steadily, but the stock price was extremely volatile. Why? Because markets are driven by human emotions, fear and greed and not just fundamentals. And here's the real lesson. If you had reacted emotionally to these corrections, you would have sold early and missed the entire multi-bagger.

13. Only those investors who stayed calm, ignored the noise and held through the volatility were able to achieve those 130X returns. That's why in investing, controlling your emotions is not optional. It's everything.