저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 경기침체는 임박하지 않았으며, 경기는 '롤링 리커버리' 국면이고 S&P500은 단기적으로 4,600 부근에서 박스권 흐름이 예상된다. 인플레이션: 주거비(shelter)를 제외한 헤드라인 CPI는 전년비 약 2%, 식품·에너지 제외 근원 CPI에서 주거비를 빼면 약 2.5%로 3% 이하다. 주거비는 끈적하지만 신규 임대료 상승률 둔화(apartmentlist.com 기준 전년비 하락)로 둔화가 시작됐다고 봤다. 금리·연준: 시장은 연준의 금리 인상이 이미 끝났다고 선반영한 것으로 본다. 연준이 연말까지 쉴 수 있다는 시각에 동의한다는 취지. 주식 전망: S&P500 목표치 4,600을 예전에 제시했으나 7월 31일 이미 도달해 약 5개월 빨리 달성했다. 밸류에이션이 높아 목표치를 상향하지는 않으며, 실적이 주가를 따라잡을 때까지 연말까지 4,600 아래 근처에서 횡보할 것으로 본다. 내년에는 또 한 번 좋은 해가 될 것이라고 전망. 경기 지표: 애틀랜타 연은 GDP 나우 추정치는 약 4%지만 일부만 신뢰. 지난달 고용은 20만 명 미만으로 둔화 조짐. 침체 우려는 연기됐을 뿐 사라지지 않았다. 리스크: 연준이 단기금리를 500bp 넘게 올렸고 모기지 금리는 7% 이상으로 재상승. 신용 여건(은행 대출 태도 조사)이 경기 과열을 막는 요인. 은행권 신용 긴장(3월 은행위기, 무디스 등급 하향)도 제약 요인. 소비: 소비는 서비스에서 재화로 무게가 옮겨가며 완만하게 유지될 전망. 애틀랜타 연은 소비 추정치 약 3.5%는 6월 수치가 강했던 영향이 크다는 해석.
다듬은 글
today's read confirms inflation is still on a downward Trend and that the FED can take the rest of the year off let's bring in that yard Dani of your Danny research Ed I don't know that they're going to necessarily immediately say uh that they're that they're taking the rest of the year off but it's certainly in wait and see mode uh and I guess you're not afraid as many are that we're going to get to a sticky place in terms of inflation and and the fed's going to have to to tighten things a little more I think we're we're past the sticky side of things because if you look at the CPI headline inflation rate excluding shelter which includes that uh annoying component called rent we get a two percent increase and a year-over-year basis if you look at the CPI core rate excluding food and energy and then take out shelter you get two and a half percent so we're actually below three percent on these kind of measures and so it's really all up to shelter and shelter has been sticky but I think it's starting to come down and it's coming down because uh it's starting to reflect the that the fact that inflation on new leases has come down sharply it's actually down on a year-over-year basis according to apartmentlist.com it's true you'll have others talk about 4.4 annualized wage growth and the fact that we have a lot of these Union contracts getting changed through and Diesel costs can get passed along into core Services however all that being being the case uh has the market already kind of gotten to that spot where it's assuming that the fed's just about done and we have the soft Landing in place or is there more upside to be gathered from that that being confirmed Mike I I've I've been forecasting 4 600 on the S P 500 by your end we got there in on July 31st so we got there about five months early so now what do I do I don't really feel like uh it's appropriate to raise my target here because valuations are stretched and I do want to see that earnings kind of catch up with the with the market so I think we're going to be kind of trading around this level just below 4 600 around 4 600 through year end and then I think we have another good year next year but for now I think that the market has discounted the likelihood that the FED has finished raising interest rates for now and that inflation is going to continue to moderate and that the economy is going to continue to hang in there pretty well it is remarkable given that um you know one month into the third quarter you have the real-time Atlanta fed estimate for GDP growth pushing four percent nobody really accepts that on its face however even with that you have plenty of folks saying deceleration is is observable elsewhere and you know we got under 200 000 jobs last month it's probably headed down from there in other words the recession uh call has mostly been deferred and not taken off the table does that make sense at this stage well I think you've got fewer economists uh predicting a recession but you're right I mean we're we're not out of the woods yet the fact is the Fed has raised the uh short-term rates by over 500 basis points the fact is mortgage rates are back up over seven percent uh so there's still some uh kind of uh restrictive policies out there and we saw that in the Moody's downgrade at the banks we saw that in March in the the banking crisis and we've seen it in the sluice the senior loan officer's opinion survey that the FED puts out so credit conditions are going to keep the economy from booming here but I don't think we're going to go into recession I think we've been in a ruling recession hitting different Industries at different times I think now we're actually probably seeing something of a rolling recovery particularly in the good sector I think the worst of the recession in Goods as uh is behind us and from here on consumers are probably going to be a little bit more even in their spending they've they've gone on a flying binge in Services after they're buying pigeon Goods now I think Services slows Goods picks up and then the consumer continues to spend I mean consumer spending according to that at Atlanta fed uh survey you mentioned uh is tracking at three and a half percent and I think a lot of that is as Steve Lisbon has said it's a lot of it's because the June number ended up in a strong note and you're kind of comparing averages over averages so these are legitimate numbers
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