저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 경기 침체 우려는 약하며 S&P500은 4600까지 상승 가능, 강세장이 이어질 것으로 전망. 인플레이션 및 금리: 11월 CPI는 양호했다. 주거비를 제외하면 약 1.5%, 식품·에너지·주거를 모두 제외하면 약 2% 상승으로, 인플레이션은 연준 목표 수준에 근접했다. 주거 인플레이션은 확실히 둔화 중이다. 시장 전망: 현재 랠리는 지속될 것이며 S&P500 목표치 4600은 너무 보수적일 수 있다. 4600 돌파는 내년 초 좋은 랠리의 발판이 될 수 있다. 10월 12일이 저점이었고 약세장 스토리는 사실상 끝났다고 본다. 경기 및 소비: 고금리에도 경제는 회복탄력적이며 소비자와 노동시장(구인 공고 다수)이 견조해 경기 침체를 우려할 필요가 낮다고 본다. 금리 전망: 연준은 내년 50bp, 두 차례 인하를 시사하고 있으며 이는 합리적이다. 설령 금리가 현 수준을 유지해도 경제는 감당할 수 있다. 고금리는 고정수익 투자자에게 이익을 준다. 자금 흐름: 현금에 쏠린 자금이 주식·채권으로 이동할 가능성이 있으며, 이것이 시장을 더 끌어올릴 수 있다. 다만 필수는 아니다. 실적: 3분기 기업 실적은 사상 최고치를 기록했다. 4분기 추정치는 하향 조정 중이나 내년 실적은 강할 것으로 본다. 2024년 EPS 전망은 250달러, 2025년은 270달러로 기존 낙관적 입장을 유지한다. 단기 시장: Russell 2000 급등(5.15%)은 지속성 확인이 필요하다. 산타 랠리가 이미 시작된 것으로 보인다.
다듬은 글
good to see you welcome back thank you very much I'll just ask you first for your thoughts on on what's Happening Here well the CPI was a great report um you know I'm a big uh believer that you should always take out wasn't what doesn't support your story and if you take out Shelter From the CPI it was up like 1.5% if you take out food energy and shelter it was up 2% so we've already got inflation pretty close to where the FED wants it they actually wanted at 2% so we just have to wait patiently here but shelter inflation is definitely coming down I think the market read it the right way and I think this rally is going to continue my urine Target is 4600 and it's turning out to be too conservative the way things are going and I think if we if we actually go up to 4600 that's actually a breakout which could set us up for a good rally into early next year you mentioned stories um the be story can we say it's dead or is it too early I've said it's dead for a long time I mean I thought October 12th was the low I even thought that the bare Market wasn't going to be long sustainable but uh I think the bare the bare story requires a recession as you said Scott and it's hard to see a recession out there uh with the economy uh continuing to grow quite well in the face of what has been a very significant increase in interest rates the economy is resilient that's really the bottom line of it the consumer is resilient and as long as the labor market continues to show lots of job openings I don't think we have to worry about a recession and I think that takes away from the bare story and now with this rally in the with with interest rates coming down that helps on the valuation side you know the third quarter earnings reporting season is just about over and the result is going to be that the earnings just Rose to a record high so all very impressive right but I mean you could you could say couldn't you that okay the economy remains resilient I'll give you that um but what happens if rates remain remain elevated right that the FED is just not fed's not going to cut right because Pal doesn't want to be Arthur Burns so what what happens when you put still resilient economy with still elevated rates 1 plus one what does that equal for the stock market well I I I in my forecast I don't really have to have interest rates come down sign significantly I think uh you know it's always everybody wants to be a contrarian and bet against the FED I've actually been betting on the FED that the fed's going to get it right and right now they're talking about two rate Cuts 50 basis points next year I think that's very reasonable and I think the economy can live with uh with these levels of interest rates it's already proven that it can do that I think if rates stay here it would really be a an indication that the economy is actually pretty doing pretty well and rates at these levels are a real windfall for fixed income investors that's one of the reasons by the way that uh High interest rates haven't been all that negative cuz there's a lot of people who were basically suffering when interest rates were close to zero and now they're getting quite a windfall in net interest income you think we get people to move out of cash and into equities and if so when well I think as you mentioned before it's not essential that that happens there's uh there is a lot of cash out there um and it may might not take that much to to move the market higher but but uh yeah I think the market could very well convince some people that they've got a misallocation in their asset portfolio too much cash and not enough in bonds and stocks yeah one day also doesn't make a you know doesn't a broadening make you know I'm looking at the Russell I I I've just been astounded by the move today it's up 5.15% you need some level of sustainability behind that before you can declare this still yeah um you know a broadening market right right well I'm I'm not a technician but technicians certainly must be marveling at today's action and the action really since October 27th when the uh correction was over we had a this has been a classic uh bull market since October uh 12th this is the third year of an election year and uh that's usually a very good year uh we had an amazingly strong January barometer at the beginning of the year we had a weak September and October and now we're getting a very strong November I think we're already in the Santa Claus rally and uh it may surprise even The Optimist like myself but I mean it's not like earnings were fabulous right I mean they are they are somewhat lackluster and maybe the projections for next year given lag effects and the like are are still a little too elevated no I think they're they're quite good I mean as I said uh we're talking about record earnings in the third quarter and I know that analysts have been shaving down their estimates for the fourth quarter because they've been getting some cautious guidance from companies but companies have to do that in the kind of environment we're in um you know as as an economist as a forecaster I think uh next year is going to be a better year and I think earnings are going to be strong look Scott I've been at the top end of forecasters on earnings I thought 225 this year 250 next year and 270 for 2025 and uh I've been saying that for over a year and for over a year I've been kind of wondering whether I should lower it and I haven't because the economy continued to perform pretty well as I thought it was actually again everything has been working out better than optimists like myself have been thinking I mean third quarter economic growth was fantastic I wobbled a little bit uh last time I was with you thought well maybe we'll get to 4,400 and now of them a sudden I'm back there like no no I gonna see 4600 like today or you know not today but the next few days is quite possible
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