저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 연준(파월)의 팬데믹 대응이 경기를 과도하게 살려 현재의 고인플레이션을 낳았다는 주장. 팬데믹 초기 연준의 금리 인하(3월 두 차례 합계 약 150bp, 제로금리)와 3월 23일 대규모 지원책 발표가 기업 파산을 막았다고 설명. 카니발 크루즈는 연준 지원 덕분에 약 7,200만 주를 주당 8달러에 매각하고 19.5억 달러 전환사채, 40억 달러 회사채를 발행했다고 언급. 항공사에는 의회가 540억 달러 지원. 보잉은 4월 말 250억 달러 규모 공모를 지원 없이 진행. 화이자 등 백신 개발 속도가 예상보다 빨랐던 점도 언급. 현재 파산 건수가 2010년 이후 최저 수준이라는 S&P Global 데이터를 제시. 2022년 부채 10억 달러 이상 상장사 파산은 Revlon, GWG 두 곳뿐이라고 설명. 해고와 파산이 없어 고용시장이 과열되고 있다는 논리. 주식시장은 자본 조달이 얼어붙어 있지만 AMC 등 한계기업도 개인 매수세로 버티고 있다고 평가. 연준 금리 인상이 아직 대규모 해고를 낳지 않았다고 봄. 이베이(Gene 질의)는 펀더멘털 악화와 2009년·1999년 같은 낡은 사이트 느낌으로 부정적 견해를 보이며 Etsy를 선호. 암호화폐 채굴기 판매 현황도 언급. 시장 조정 중 Reit 악재와 베어마켓 랠리 이후 추세 점검 필요성도 언급. 다우 351포인트, 나스닥 2% 급락 등 당일 시장 하락 언급. 향후 1~3개월 자산별 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Quick America I've been with my friends but to explain how days like today can happen I've been thinking maybe what happened here is we did such a good job saving the economy that it just can't be derailed by a few measly large raid Heights I mean that is the reason why the market got slammed again today Dow plunging 351 points on campus it was that really it was much lower one point the SB Plumbing 1.44 but the NASDAQ nose diving two percent worst two-day decline in more than a month we have simply had too much of a good thing and a lot of those good things come about because we bounced back so quickly and strongly from the pandemic and that momentum is proving very hard to break it's almost like we forgot there was a pandemic it is difficult to remember what it was like in the spring of 2020 at the height of the pandemic I can't blame anyone for wanting to block out that whole episode we lost one million people to a virus we never heard of a few months before but j-pal knew how bad it was when things started getting really scary March 3rd he slashed the federal fund shape about 50 base points to a range of one percent to 1.25 then 13 days later came out in 13 days he cut another 100 base of Sports Talk take us down to the zero to 0.25 range yeah things just kept getting worse and worse they say a picture is worth a 1 000 words so why don't we do this if you want a picture that captures the Kobe crash I'm gonna put one up look at the stock of Carnival The Cruise Company we started freaking out about people getting sick on these ships so people stop booking them and then the government ordered the ship's grounded suddenly these heavily indebted behemoths with tens of thousands of employees were teetering look at this decline that's 54.
all the way down here talking about nine yeah that's right and this is just a single digit digit right here it showed no real sign of bottom either because there was a genuine fear and a fraction logical fear that this thing was going to go under it actually made sense that that if it did then on March 23rd something happened Jay pal veggie pulled out all the stops he issues a press release which sure seems mild-mannered not unlike him quote Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy end quote Oh but it was the furthest thing from being mild Powell basically declared war against bankruptcy in any form remember we were looking at Double Digit unemployment back then so he wanted to cushion the blow by preventing layoffs particularly to public companies the easiest way to do that is for the FED to make so it's incredibly easy for businesses to borrow money remember that became the problem with listeners after that there were a slew of different facilities that he put into place a lot of them were like what should have been done and wasn't until the end of the financial crisis done two way to prevent a lost decade for the economy palette read about the Great Depression was a great student of he lived through the Great Recession he didn't want to preside over some great pandemic cataclysm he sold Mass Labs on the horizon so he quickly moved the storms to bleeding yes that's terrific we forget that it drives me crazy that we forget that Powell solved the mass unemployment problem but he and a much more profitable to Congress than he thought created a new problem the inflation problem that we're now dealing with when is The Ground Zero of the pandemic Carnival let's go back to that we're suspended business on its Princess Cruise Lines on March 13th was suddenly able to sell because of that statement I read you from nearly 72 million shares at eight bucks at just weeks later while also issuing 1.95 billion dollars worth of 5.75 convertible senior notes and four billion dollars worth of 11.5 percent singular notes Carnival never been able to raise that money without Jay pal and his fed backstop it saved this company from going under the company would have definitely filed for bankruptcy and you know what happened how about this a hundred and twenty thousand jobs saved by pal like anybody cares now and that's just one example you make the same point about the whole Cruise industry at the exact same time Congress gave the airlines 54 billion in relief keep them from going under the situation remained dire until the end of April when Boeing another teetering Enterprise came to Market with a monster 25 billion dollar bottle offering no government assistance needed assigned the capital markets were finally thawed and business could continue despite the pandemic of course back then we had no idea how long the coveted economy would last I become what we did we didn't know two would have known modern who the heck was Modern I was the only guy ever had him on TV before hey Pfizer okay well that Pfizer was not known as being a breakthrough Drug Company who would have thought that they would have the vaccines before the end of the year I've gone back and looked at hundreds of articles about the virus from that period and I couldn't find one story arguing that we could get a vaccine faster than four or five years I mean I had the mumps I mean that doesn't even sound like a disease anymore but it took them five years to develop a mumps vaccine and this thing was killing people left and right defense liquidity injections seemed minuscule versus the scale of the threat and I'm not even talking about all the stimulus checks or the more tournament evictions or the child tax credits or the suspension student loan payments the result we beat the pandemic so quickly the checks were still in the mail when the world started going back to normal cash balances went Sky High now we're paying the price for all of that largesse but I would tend to think it's more of all that oxygen because the economy came back too quickly and now we've got inflation all over the place the Federal Reserve is frantically trying to stabilize the situation they want to Tamp down on wage inflation because wage inflation is systemic but business is so darn healthy nothing they do seems to matter if there's so many Radars you'd think that we flooded with packages and layoffs that's what they thought no and I'm going to give you a staggering statistic that you've not heard from one that is just going to blow your mind that people should be talking about bankruptcies bankruptcies both public and private are pacing at the lowest level right now after all these rate highs the lowest level since 2010 according to s p Global lowest is 2010 almost no one's going bankrupt which means not enough layoffs to cool down the overheated job market amazingly only two companies that have more than a billion dollars in liabilities and Republican traded have filed for backseat in 2022 with more than one billion liabilities Revlon and gwg holdings hardly major employers too that you're really not focused on all these rate hikes have yet to cause Mass firings and mass filings and that's just not going to cool the economy it is true that Equity markets are pretty much Frozen right hardly any companies have been able to raise money right here why well I mean there's just not enough money around the stock market's scared to death just like we had today that's what's happening yet even the most marginal newly public Enterprises just keep chugging along you think some of these SPAC names have run out of money soon right I mean come on so many are horrendous but they haven't run out of money can you imagine until Sam bankman free came along with his FTX crypto collapse there were only a handful of sizable private bankruptcies and they were all absorbed very quickly how about this be simple the government did too good a job bailing us out during the worst period of the pandemic and CEOs have cleverly managed to beat back bankruptcy as things have come more difficult if there were ever a candidate to go bankrupt on pandemic it would be the movie theater Changed by Adam Aaron the redial CEO of AMC managed to raise money by summoning a full Planet of Apes eager to bid the stock up in a buying frenzy that's how a company with 10 billion dollars in debt and Lease liabilities can stay alive in an industry that should never been able to survive a pan damn it and by the way anyone who bought the stock above seven has been crushed but the institution's been preserved and it should have been torn asunder all that said I'm sure there'll be many layoffs after Christmas I don't want to finger point the retailers who've been uh most likely to be thrown to bankruptcy when the holidays are over but I do want people to realize that in a way our current High inflation economy is the higher qual the high quality problem left over from what had to happen our leaders did a great job of saving struggling businesses if anything they did their job too well let me ask you though would it been better if they saved these companies or let them all go we had a low inflation recovery after the Great Recession I'm liking this High inflation recovery from covet a lot better here's the bottom line hindsight is 2020 but j-pal was dealing with the unknown back then and he did it with gusto the result the Lost unemployment rate in decades paired with the highest inflation rate in decades you win some you lose some Gene in California Gene hi Jim thank you for taking my call and for all the advice you've offered over the years oh thank you long time fan um I was calling you today about eBay I um in taking some computer advice decided to go through all the stocks in my portfolio looking at the fundamentals and was surprised at their earnings loss I um I've held it for a long time through the PayPal spin-off I've got to tell you Gene it's a faltering business I mean it's a good one I was on the site the other day counting by the way crypto mining devices seeing who's selling those and you know what it's so so it looks very it looks very 2009 the site or maybe 1999 it's kind of embarrassing correctly I like Etsy much better Jay pal was dealing with the unknown at the height of the pandemic and you know what he did a great job with gusto the result we got the lowest unemployment rate in decades but it's paired with the highest in place of eight decades you know what it could be a lot worse old man tonight there was a one-two punch out in the Reit space last week that had investors worried so what should you make to the cohort now and is there still opportunity to be had I'm gonna take a closer look then with the major averages flowing today should we be worried about this tape as we exit bear Market rally mode I'm not sure but I'm gonna go up the charts to find out and you know what someone called about super micro Computing after the end during the light around oh man what a monster I'm gonna turn in my homework g
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