저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
조엘 그린블랫의 마법공식(ROIC 기준 품질 순위 + 이익수익률 기준 저평가 순위를 합산) 소개 강의. 그린블랫 펀드 Gotham Capital의 20여년간 연평균 약 40% 수익을 언급하며 방법론의 우수성을 설명. 포트폴리오는 20~30종목 동일비중, 연 1회 리밸런싱, 금융·공공재(에너지 등) 업종 제외를 제시. 단기 부진이 있을 수 있어 장기 인내와 규율이 핵심이라고 강조. 특정 종목이나 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Think about it. What if we were to turn Warren Buffett's genius into a sort of cake recipe? That's right, today we're going to delve into exactly that: the investment philosophy of a true market legend, Wellell Greenbled. To begin with, just look at this number, 40%. This was the average annual return that Joy Green Blade's fund, Gotham Capital, managed to deliver for over 20 years.
It's a performance that has consistently outperformed the market. And a result like that, let's face it, isn't luck, it's method. And it all starts with an idea, almost an obsession, which was to solve that question that everyone who invests asks themselves. It doesn't matter if you're just starting out or if you already have years of experience.
Green Blatt didn't just want a hot tip, you know? He wanted a system, a real method for deciphering the market. The question itself seems silly because it's so simple, right? How to find the best stocks to buy. But the answer Greenblatt wanted was radical. His idea was to eliminate intuition, guesswork, luck, to take all of that out of the equation.
He wanted to create a method that was purely logical, that anyone could replicate. And the inspiration for this came from another master. And the basis of it all is right here in this quote from Warren Buffett. It's much better to buy a wonderful company for a fair price than a fair company for a wonderful price.
This principle is the foundation of the entire Green Blatch philosophy. The ultimate goal is very clear: to find excellent businesses that are being sold at a good price. OK? But here's the real trick . How does one grasp a philosophy like that ? A wisdom that seems almost like an art, transforming into a cold and objective mathematical formula.
The big challenge was this: to create a system that was motion-proof and that would allow anyone to apply the logic of the buffet. So, let's take a look at the recipe for this so-called magic formula. It is based on only two ingredients, two concepts. And the curious thing is that, looking at them separately, they seem quite simple, but when you combine the two, that's when the magic happens.
And the beauty of it all lies precisely in its simplicity. Basically, the formula divides the problem into two major questions. First, is the company good? And secondly, is the stock cheap? To answer each of these questions, we're going to use a very specific metric. For the first question about quality, the tool is HOIK, or return on invested capital.
Think of it this way: ROIK shows how good a company is at taking the money invested in it and generating more money, more profit. The higher the ROIK, the better the business. Simple as that. Now, for the second question about the price, the tool is earnings, and what does it do? It basically shows the company's profit compared to its total market value.
Umning zield alto means that the stock is cheap. It's like we're looking for a clearance sale on the stock market. Beauty? Now we have both ingredients, one to measure quality and the other to measure price. So how do we turn this into a real action plan? It is precisely now that theory becomes a practical tool for choosing actions.
And the process is completely mechanical, it's almost like a competition. First, we rank all the companies based solely on quality, or ROIC. Those with the highest ROIC are at the top. Then we'll do a second ranking just looking at the price, the Zield. The cheapest ones are at the top. Here comes the final part.
We add together each company's position in both rankings. Those with the lowest total, well, those are the champions. It's a way of finding the best of both worlds, without any guesswork. But be aware, having this list of champions is only the first step. It's no use having the list if you do n't know what to do with it.
The next step is just as important: How do we build an investment portfolio in a smart and disciplined way using these results? And for that, there are some very clear rules. First, don't put all your eggs in one basket. The idea is to assemble a portfolio with 20 to 30 stocks from the list. Second, invest the same amount of money in each of them to diversify the risk.
Then, once a year, you have to rebalance your portfolio. And lastly, perhaps the most difficult, is having patience and sticking to the strategy in the long term. Oh, and one very, very important point: the formula does n't work for every type of company. We need to exclude certain sectors, for example, financial companies like banks and insurance companies, and also public utility companies, such as energy companies.
Why? Because their financial structures are very different, and this ends up distorting the indicators that we use. The comparison wouldn't be fair. OK? Up until now we've talked about mathematics, formulas, and rules, but now comes the most important part of this whole story. And believe me, it has nothing to do with numbers, it has to do with our minds, with our mentality.
And that's what ultimately separates those who succeed from those who fail with this strategy. Now comes the million-dollar question, right? If this formula is so good, so brilliant, is it infallible, does it work all the time? And the answer, which may surprise you, is no, absolutely not. And the craziest thing is that this is precisely why it works so well in the long run.
Yes, that's the harsh reality. The magic formula can indeed underperform the market for several consecutive months or even for years. Her strength lies in the long term, but to reach that long term, a person needs to persevere through periods when it seems like nothing is going right. The market can remain irrational for much longer than we imagine.
And this is where we discover the real secret ingredient. It's not about HOY, it's not about Earning Zield, the secret is patience and discipline. The formula only works in the long term because in the short term it will fail. And it is this flaw that tests our conviction. The vast majority of people simply can't take it anymore and give up, usually at the worst possible moment.
So, at the end of the day, the big lesson here isn't even about finance, it's about human behavior. The biggest challenge is not understanding the mathematics behind the formula. That's the easy part. The real challenge is having the discipline to follow the formula, especially when it's not working. And that is the real magic behind Joel Green Blatz's philosophy.
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