저자: Kevin · 외국인
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23andMe의 VGAC(Virgin Galactic) SPAC 합병 관련 첫인상 분석. 매출은 2019~2021년 감소 추세이나 2021년 1월 판매량은 2019/2018 대비 개선. 회사 계획상 2024년 매출 4억 달러·매출총이익률 58%를 가정하며 구독료(연 29~30달러) 모델로 수익화 예정. 발표 자료의 예측은 과장 가능성이 있고, 낙관 시나리오(2025년 매출 6억 달러 가정)에서도 주당 이익 기준 약 100배 PER로 과도한 투기성. 합병 직후 매도 압력 가능성을 언급하며 투자 판단은 몇 분기 후 실적 확인 후로 유보.
다듬은 글
hey everyone kevin here in this video i want to go through some of my first impressions on 23 and me and their virgin galactic spec vgac is it worth investing in what valuation are you investing in why is it down 8 today what's the story here well let's get right into it first i think it's helpful that if you don't know what 23andme is yet let me give you a very quick and basic primer using myself as an example as a customer of 23andme basically you spit into a test tube and they run your dna and over time that dna becomes more and more or the conclusions from that dna becomes more and more accurate see when i first used 23andme i was considered maybe at most 67 or 69 percent german it was something like that and over time as more people use ancestrydna or 23andme or all these dna websites whatever which you're giving all your data to basically you gave them your whole genetic code right although your doctors probably already got to that first but who knows we're not going to get conspiratorial here but what's cool is over time that data becomes more and more accurate as more and more people use it because they're able to put more of the puzzle pieces of your dna linkages together it's like oh here's a marker from the year 200.
oh we keep seeing that year 200 marker come up and people who used to live here and that's how they're able to more narrow down that map because once you have a marker on your genetic code it stays there which is really cool for seeing sort of your family tree expand it's basically like the puzzle pieces are there we just have to find them all to put it all together and that's kind of what 23andme is doing and by doing this they're able to potentially help people identify their risks for certain cancers or their risks for you know activity or allergies or whatever it gets better and better over time the q a people there's so many things you can do in this see your next reports sleep movement asparagus odor detection cilantro taste aversion uh i i don't know all a fear of heights i mean they try they survey people on all this crazy stuff and you could spend a a ton of time in here uh trying to learn about what you're most likely uh you know gonna be affected by verse not affected by but anyway what i want to show you is remember how i said my ancestry report used to say like 69 in german now if i go into my ancestry you can actually see him now uh 89.9 french and german up to well now 99.9 uh european i actually used to have .01 uh jewish it was like they had a little bit of israel in there and that went away in the latest update and now it's just literally just solely putting me up here in this sort of french and german area but what's interesting when i click on french and german and now it actually narrows it down even more like there's there's not even any blue region in france it's literally just these different areas in germany here uh and it's sort of interesting because uh i was uh if i zoom in i don't think i could zoom into germany anymore oh i can look at that i was actually born in this region right here north north reinvestment anyway uh yeah so okay cool so the app gets better over time i get it cool do we want to invest in the company well that's the big question so we got a slide deck i'm not going to go through i look i hate slide decks because slide decks are like just pure marketing to try to brainwash you to invest in the company uh we're just going to mostly look at the bottom lines here just to determine does it make sense for you to invest in this company and sort of my opinions on this so okay so investor presentation uh basically they're thinking of merging with vgac but mergers can fail it's a spec i think they say like 80 80 to 80 percent of mergers actually happen with these specs once they're announced uh this is a big data play right the more they can actually get people's dna the more they can sell your crap they give you cool charts and graphs and you just sold your life's worth of data essentially at least in dna i don't want to sound depressing but this is a big data play and they're basically telling you hey uh we haven't really figured out how to monetize this yet but we're sure we will in the future that's the goal uh and uh you know they go hey look at all these customers we have we have 10.7 million customers i don't really know why they're comparing us to regeneron but they are so uh you know then they complain about the healthcare industries uh this is kind of cool this is worth looking at i just highlighted the parts that i think are worth looking at uh these are some things where they're able to now with 99 accuracy determine your risk factor for things like breast and ovarian cancer uh corollectal cancer i mean these these are nice things to have a heads up on you know uh it could increase your likelihood of wanting to get screened or maybe taking preventative action there's some cool benefits to actually doing the service and i'm not sponsored by them i don't have an affiliate link down below i'm just looking at this solely as an investor here you know they do like uh ancestry like relative trees here maybe you could find relatives you didn't even know you had uh you know i've only found like a fourth generation connection through the tree never even reached out to him or anything yet but but i you know a few years ago when i took this actually like six years ago when i took the test i uh i didn't have any connections so it's interesting it does grow over time so like if you take one of those tests you do uh you do kind of like like it's sort of this renewing subscription that you don't have to keep paying for which is great uh but anyway you know okay it helps people take positive action after having their genetic data or it gives you increased likelihoods for atrial fibrillation or whatever other things in here the slide deck cool big consumer demand like keep in mind that this this particular company went like viral in 2017 and 18 and this is going to be a problem when it comes to our sales data which we'll look at in just a moment but you can look this slide deck up too if you want to look at this in more detail just google 23andme slide deck but i want to get to the the parts that matter so we're going to quit flopping around here and let's get to the parts that matter and make some conclusions here so here's the thing 23andme financials little bit concerning obviously that when we look at their revenue here we've got this decline in revenue right we've got a decline here from 2019 to 2020 we've got a decline to 2021 we've got a decline so we've really got this declining revenue maybe potentially after that viral wave that we saw in 2017 to to now this potential forecast for increasing revenues the problem with these slide decks is you always have to remember forecasts are forecasts and of course if they're going to be selling a spec they're going to be excited about their forecasts i get nervous about forecasts i like actual data and actual sales and i have to say over the last three years their website data it leaves something to be desired uh here's their oh we're still on on this hold on one sec let's grab this here uh we're gonna jump on over to look at the analytics for uh 23andme and generally when i like investing in a company like etsy or pinterest i like seeing you know straight up growth that's that's what i want is basically nothing but a growth well at 23 and me we've got uh yeah a little bit of that decline still and again this could be from that virality that we saw in 2017 to 2019 but the trend line has been difficult to go back up we do continue to see sales go up leading into january that's often i think because people are maybe a little bit more health conscientious so maybe you get that sort of cyclical bump but we're not close to seeing the 2019 cyclical bump we're not close to seeing the 2018 bump we are exceeding the 2020 bump right before the pandemic so maybe that's good maybe this is a an indication that their inflection point is correct that we are going potentially into that growth mode again we'll see the service is getting better and better it's something i want to keep an eye on i like that their margin keeps going up in terms of how they're able to produce revenue right now we don't have a full earnings release from them yet so we only have bits and pieces that we can puzzle together here but they are indicating an increasing gross margin which is good uh and uh at the same time as their projections for revenue are going up they're actually thinking they're going to spend less on sales and marketing which is interesting to me that their sales and marketing is going down but they actually expect this increase in revenue we'll see how that actually goes now when researching 23andme a little bit more i've noticed that the package that i bought was the 99 package which does for free update my geographic regions and my family tree and dna relative finder but i actually don't get all of the benefits that i could be getting if i had their membership so this is how they're trying to monetize this package a little bit more they're trying to essentially charge people about 30 bucks a year so that you could get the latest and greatest reports on research and really what 23andme is doing here is if we go back to their slide deck is they're suggesting that hey our future revenue estimates assume that we're going to be able to get a hundred thousand people to sign up in 2021 for this 29 a year package we think we're gonna get six hundred thousand users between 2021 and 22 another 900k users and another 1.3 million users over here between 23 and 24.
these are estimates we don't know that so you're going into the spec again you're getting in really early and we don't have all the actual proof in the pudding of are they actually going to be able to convert people are people just going to pay 99 bucks one time get their dna and go do i want to pay 30 bucks a year i don't know i could buy quite a few uh iced coffees from from starbucks for that so i don't know then we get to the financial summary so it makes sense that if they're going to charge a yearly fee that their margin is going up i always like to know why why does the company think their margin is going to go up and it really seems like once they get into this annual service that's when they think their margin is going to go up now what we're going to do here is we're going to zoom into this section down here so this is revenue and gross margin uh revenue is right here so this is revenue this is gross margin 58 this is some of the data they give us uh then they say consumer and research services they're going to spend 71 million on this in the last slide for 2024 we found out that they're going to spend right here 85 million in 2024 on marketing so what we can do is we can puzzle some of these pieces together and we're gonna go down just to this corner right here and go okay they're gonna have they're assuming they're gonna have 400 million in revenue 58 gross margin and we already know they estimated on the other slide they'll have 85 million in marketing then they're going to have 71 million in other expenses and that would lead them to uh or consumer research expenses that would lead them to being negative 78 million dollars that means somewhere and they're not putting it on this list here they're also spending another 150 million dollars on other items which in my guess could be uh administration you know distribution whatever somehow they're spending another 154 million dollars so this really puts a picture together for us that they're assuming in 2024 they're going to have 400 million dollars in revenue with a 58 gross margin minus 85 million in marketing that's what they told us on the other side minus 71 million in customer research that's the number they gave us then they told us they'll be negative 178 so we're assuming 154 million is going to something else a cool thing that i can do now is i can try to forecast let's say we take those same numbers and we try to make them profitable okay we make this company profitable we assume they have 600 million dollars in revenue we take off the same 58 in margin that brings us to 348 million of money left over minus let's assume the same 85 million in marketing the same 71 million dollars that they spent over here in customer research and the same 150 million dollars 154 million dollars in other expenses we're just assuming everything from 2024 to 25 is flat but their revenue goes up by 50 let's just say that would leave them with about 38 million dollars in revenue this back you're investing in only gets about 11 so vgac only gets about 11 of that and it's worth 25 million shares so 11 of 38 million a lot of numbers going on here we're gonna pull some of the bottom lines together him uh 11 of 38 million dollars so 38 million one two three times 11 leaves you with about 4.18 million dollars in revenue to be split by 25 million shares which means each share has about 16 cents of earnings in 2025 if they grow 50 which means you are paying at 16 a share of this back you're paying about a hundred times earnings assuming that this company between 2024 and 2025 can grow uh 50 that's assuming that we can delete all this now now now we have all this that we kind of walk through let's draw some simple conclusions because i know sometimes this can be a little complicated to follow so bottom bottom lines are that assuming all of their assumptions here and projections are correct that they can grow their subscription model like this that they can grow margin like this that they can grow their business by spending less money on marketing and that they can grow 50 between 2024 and 2025 then maybe you are paying 100 times future earnings in 2025.
folks for me a little too too speculative a little too speculative it's one thing if i say i'm going to spend 100 times earnings at tesla because they're on the trajectory to actually produce these vehicles and i know people are buying the vehicles and i know they're having that margin we're projecting that people are going to sign up for this subscription service so don't get me wrong i love 23andme i love the service i think it's great i think it's brilliant i think they're going to find some amazing ways to make money in the future 10 years from now this company could be a phenomenal company to invest in do i want to put money into them now without having some more of that validation honestly i'm probably gonna have to wait a couple of years to really get excited about 23andme these are just my first impressions we'll see how my opinion changes over the next few quarters when they actually report earnings as a public company after they actually have their their merger we'll see i think after the spac merger it's always possible after a merger you see a little bit of a sell-off for me to get an 11 stake or even substantially less obviously than 11 it's it's really 11 uh you know one 125 millionth of 11 percent as a one-share stakeholder for me to actually get here start buying this company i don't know i think it's too premature a lot of pro formas a lot of excitement a lot of money going into this company with a spack it's this is a great opportunity for 23andme but for me as an investor to come bail this out i shouldn't say bail this out for me it's a little bit too early my thoughts my two cents what did i miss what did i get right let me know thank you so much for watching these are just my first impressions as usual this is not financial advice this is just some dude with a runescape t-shirt babbling about 23 in me so take it for what it's worth
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