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피터 린치의 6가지 주식 분류(저성장주·우량성장주·고성장주·자산주·턴어라운드주·경기순환주)를 설명하고, 투자자가 자신의 포트폴리오 구성을 목표에 맞춰 점검하라고 권함. 분류별 특징: 저성장주는 수익률이 낮지만 배당·자사주 매입으로 수익을 얻고, 할인 매수가 중요하다고 설명. 우량성장주는 연 6~10% 성장, 저점 매수 후 30~50% 수익 실현 후 매도 고려. 고성장주는 연 15~25% 성장과 확장 가능성이 핵심이며, 25% 이상 성장은 경쟁 과열 위험이 있다고 지적. 자산주는 숨은 자산을 가진 기업(예: BT, Dropbox 사용자 기반), 턴어라운드주는 실패 위험이 크지만 성공 시 보상이 크다고 설명, 경기순환주는 매수 시점이 핵심. 진행자 본인 포트폴리오는 저성장주 약 20%, 우량성장주 약 20%, 고성장주 약 30%, 자산주 소량, 턴어라운드(Walgreens), 경기순환주(Shell) 약 10% 구성이라고 소개. 투자 기간에 따라 구성이 달라져야 한다고 강조하며 법적 투자 조언이 아님을 명시. 종목 관련 가격 방향 예측이나 구체적 매수·매도 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello everyone and welcome to finance at jcl i'm glad you could join me today and the topic for discussion is the six types of stock as described by peter lynch in his outstanding book one up on wall street now this is gonna be useful for you i believe because it will help you categorize the stocks in your portfolio and then have a look at that compared to your investment objectives and see whether you've actually got the right composition in your portfolio because it's going to be different depending on your individual circumstances so therefore this isn't financial advice it's just sharing the information in the book i'll also demonstrate the makeup of my portfolio in relation to the six types of stock so let's go but if we start off there are four sorry three types of growth stock there's the slow grower which you can see is a very much lower potential return but quite low risk there's the stalwarts then you've got the fast grower right at the top and you've also got three other types which is your asset place cyclicals and turnarounds we'll have a look at the detail of those but what you can see here is turnarounds very much like the highest risk but there is a high potential return but the highest potential return is probably from fast growers i've got an arrow in that one because actually these where you get your 10 20 100 magazines they're probably off the scale of this graph so that's that's the six let's have a look at the detail of them so the slow growers um starting off with their kind of mid single single-digit earnings growth rates and of course the earnings growth rate effectively in the long run determines the stock price and this can happen with fast growers that have kind of got to the peak of their markets and they can turn into slow growth the whole thing you know it's a dynamic situation companies aren't just stuck in one category they can move around over time and something to look out for a slogan is something called what peter lynch calls diversification which is where they got money they don't really know what to do with it the management of the company they buy other businesses or invest in things that they don't really know anything about if you are going to own these stocks they should be paying a very high dividend or at least buying back shares so that's how you get your return you're not really gonna get much return from the share price appreciation you can't go periods are sort of ten years without the stock price uh moving at all really so you don't really want too many in your portfolio unless you think they're going to change or you can actually buy them at a discount so i have several slogans in my portfolio i bought them at um at least a 50 discount to what i think their value is so kind of gone to what you might call the medium growers or the stalwarts as peter lynch describes them this is where you've got kind of six to ten percent growth rate in earnings they tend to be very large corporations and they also tend to have very low risks of failing so these are big names that have been around for a long time and the best way to make money from them is to actually buy them when they have a dip you can make 30 to 50 in a couple of years and if you do make 30 to 50 a couple of years that should be deemed as a very good return and then you should consider selling them as a general rule of thumb and then they do also because they're big corporations to low risk failure they do offer protection during hard times and again look at the ones that diversifying so they've been around for a long time they start trying out new markets they know nothing about have keep a lot generally best to avoid those companies now we get on to the most exciting which is the fast grower are you looking at something that's growing at maybe 15 to 25 on earnings and these the guys that are really going to make you the money but a couple of things to look out for with that growth rate the growth rate is above 25 percent then there is a big risk that actually becomes so exciting and so appealing it's almost like a hot industry and the amount of competition increases so you want to avoid that if you can find a fast grower in a boring established industry that's even better and they should also have a usp to be growing this fast as well now the other thing to do with these no businesses can grow 25 cents a year indefinitely they will have to stop growing eventually so you need to have a think about what their kind of maximum size is and how well they can scale they're a very young company their risk of scaling up so you need to find something that has scaled up if you think about an american uh department store you don't just want one that's in one city or one state have they been in five states and has it worked in those five different states if so they've got potential to exponentially grow to the 50 states for instance keep that in mind and these are guys that get you your 10 baggers 20 40 100 even 200 and you don't have to go in straight away you can wait at that early period until they have made a profit proving the concept works then you can go in and still make 10 20 50 times and there isn't that compulsion to go in right in the beginning to make 200 to 500 times you can reduce your risk of it by waiting we don't need a couple of these to make an amazing portfolio especially if you have a small portfolio um you know three of these in your lifetime you could make absolutely massive amounts of money and the way to identify them is not just with that growth they need to have profitability and a good balance sheet so they can withstand the scaling up and they've got the financing to do so at the end of the day it's all about earnings and those earnings keep growing the share price will keep growing on average but do be aware of the markets if that growth rate starts to drop so i guess from 25 15 15 is that a good growth rate but the market will probably look poorly on their share price if that growth rate produces so you really need to keep cranking out that same or high growth rate each year so if you can find the fast growers fantastic you're going to make some money now we then get on to the other three types so the first one is what peter lynch calls asset plays this is where you can use your own edge in industries or use your own skills to investigate and find companies which have situations perhaps where they have under discovered assets or assets that are unappreciated by the general wall street market perhaps an example of this could be heritage growth properties in the usa an example in the uk could breed bt so bt everyone knows the name they've got the ee mobile network they've got broadband going it's probably 10 million homes they got men in vans and i think that company is potentially undervalued based on its market price now these asset plates are really good ones are very difficult to discover and they do need a bit of investigation so you won't find too many and you do need a bit of patience because it may take time for the market to realize those undervalued assets okay the fifth and sixth uh type is the turnarounds this is where perhaps the price is less related to what's going on in the market but the very big point to note is you know in every investment you make you've got a risk of loss of capital but it could be quite low in some cases but with turnarounds it's very high so if you're unsure about any of them that you look at don't let that just pass there'll be others and even if you are sure let's see have 10 turnarounds over time some of them will fail even if you performed solid investigations but you'll need a handful of them to work because the rewards are significant now a turnaround could be something like a company that's significantly diversified and they're trying to correct their previous mistakes it could be a company that looks like it's going to go bust but the potential returns are very large if the turnaround succeeds and last but not least is the cyclicals this is where the earnings go up and down in cycles generally related to the market but potentially to other things so with this course it's all about the timing of the purchase if you are able to purchase when they are at a low point in their cycle then you can make a lot of money if you purchase at the wrong time you can easily lose 50 but it can take many years for the price to recover but there is an element of predictability you can't take advantage but if you buy at the wrong time then you're in a bit of trouble in terms of making your money back again patience will be required because it can take a few years for them to work through their cycles so those are the six types i've just done a bit of a mock-up here for my portfolio so if we start it becomes 12 o'clock position i've got 22 percent of my um portfolio but the stock element that is this excludes indexes for example but the individual companies uh yeah about a fifth is in the slow growth which is probably slightly higher than i would want it to be by design but these are generally purchased with a margin of safety so they were on discount so there is an upside if i've got my 50 off there is a 100 upside there for them to get back to what i think their intrinsic value is and the dividend is quite good on these companies as well the largest holding there is the unum group is very nice dividend and it was quite below book value when i purchased my first tranche then got about a fit well exactly a fifth in stalwarts uh unilever is the biggest one of that so that's given me nine percent a year compound return over about seven or eight years and then uh pleasingly i've found that the largest element for portfolio is the fast growers 30 and banknotes of k fits into that earnings per share growth the last 10 years averages at 20 which is exceptional asset plays a little bit small now so dropbox 12 the portfolios in asset plays and the reason i put dropbox in asset play is that they have essentially up to 600 million users but they've only monetized for i can see around about 15 million or so of those they've got this massive asset the number of people that have used their service and know about them and they just if they monetize a decent percentage of that then they're on to a winner um turnarounds smallest segment of course they are very difficult to identify and for me walgreens is the one that fits into there it's a business that's been struggling but they've got new management coming in they've sold part of their business to give them a cash injection and um i think there's potential turnaround there especially with the immunization situation as well vaccine situation a lot of that will be delivered through their facilities and then finally a cyclical so 10 i've mentioned shell already and that's my largest sort of cyclical holding but these are kind of your oil companies for example the key thing i would say for you to do is if you haven't done this is first of all assess your companies and make that kind of view that i've shown how your portfolio's broken down the important thing is to compare it to your investing objectives if you're investing with yetzer is you know you're 20 or 25 and you've got 40 years before you want the money actually you probably don't need to take too much risk in loads turnarounds you can actually just get things compounding at the long term so you might take a few more stalwarts for example because over time they'll give you a decent turn and they'll compound nicely whereas if you are perhaps like one of my my good friends who say just around about 40 and he wants access to pots of money at 55 and he's just starting you probably don't want too many slow growers or stalwarts in that portfolio you're probably going to want a higher balance towards the fast growers because you need to have a return more quickly there's no ideal kind of allocation between the six different categories but it's worth doing so you can see have you got the right shape of the overall photo i hope you found that useful um i do highly recommend the peter lynch book if you haven't read it before do you have read it read it again it's is that good i'm on my second reader just finishing and i'm going to read it again it's fantastic every time i read it i think of new ideas and i get new insights from it fantastic so thank you for spending part of your day with me and i look forward to seeing you on the next one cheers for now
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