저자: SemiCentennial Man's Vlog · 한국인
다듬은 글
market what that means to your money it was on full display yet again especially into the close today let's ask the famed wharton professor jeremy he's back with us today from philadelphia professor welcome back to overtime it is nice to see you nice to see you scott i do feel like we had an old-fashioned tug of war here especially going into the close those who want to take the market higher even if it's a bear market bounce and those who say we haven't gone down hard and fast enough to really justify where we are yeah well you know the first three and a half four months of this year the decline was because of the rise in interest rates the recent weakness is uh what i call the numerator and that is earnings because in the price of stocks is earnings over interest rates and you know we've had that rise from the fed and now there is for the first time concern about that earnings and um by the way uh earlier today you know i look at the money supply as a very important indicator we had uh at one o'clock announcement today the second largest monthly decline in the money supply in more than 60 years wow you talk about contraction i mean you know you know the big mistake of the fed was 2020 when they put too much money in in 2021 we don't want to make too much a mistake are they going to try to just take it all away in 2022 i'm i'm beginning to get a bit concerned about overreaction and maybe some of the weakness we see in the economy is because uh you know the the fed is withdrawing liquidity perhaps a bit too quickly i think they could go i mean so you've been the loudest person on the network over the last couple of months saying the fed needs to do more now you're telling me they're doing too much they just got started i know i well first of all their talk of what they're gonna do we've seen how that has tightened the markets you know bringing the you know the long bond over three bringing mortgage rates over five percent when you saw home sales today scott i mean you you take a look at some of these monthly reports i mean a snap is that a warning it is what we're seeing from the retailers a warning now listen they they definitely have to move up 50 um but their july meeting and i would just recommend that they you know and they if they would look at the money supply they wouldn't be in the position they are today back in 2020 and 2021 are they gonna say okay we didn't get the money supply all the way back down you are for sure gonna have a recession and a bad one in 2020 uh 2023.
you know my feeling is that maybe there's a lot of inflation in the pipeline listen they can't do a lot about it that's all really because of the liquidity they put in it's not like steering a wheel in a car oh but just turn this lever inflation goes down to two percent no uh maybe they should accept the inflation in the in the pipeline go we go easier get us back down to the two to three percent long term that they want but uh you know right now as i said i mean that was a pretty shocking statistic for me because you know i based all my inflation forecasts uh two years ago and one year ago on this money supply i had never thought that i was going to see a decline wow so pulling money out of the system at the same time that the economy may be weakening faster than people initially thought you mentioned the home sales report i mean manufacturing miss services miss composite pmi miss richmond miss your new home sales miss month over month miss but let me read you this this from bill ackman today on twitter professor in terms of what he thinks would stop what he calls this the market spiral what would what would end it it ends he says quote when the fed puts a line in the sand on inflation and says it will do whatever it takes and then demonstrates it is serious by immediately raising rates to neutral and committing to continue to raise rates until the inflation genie is back in the bottle stocks of real businesses are cheap once again markets will soar once investors can be confident that the days of runaway inflation are over let's hope the fed gets it right i hear you saying to people like bill ackman that is way too much from the fed and now you're worried that they're going to overdo it well i'm just saying that they've got to keep their eyes on two things the one is is the interest rate and the other is the supply of liquidity uh you know don't forget we move from unbelievable fiscal stimulus to a situation a big you know biggest or one-year reduction that we had since world war ii in in the budget deficit there's no stimulus coming from anywhere with restriction you know there's a question let's the the a lot of that inflation is in the pipeline you know you want to absolutely crush the economy to get rid of it right away or say i'm going to let some of it just move through in in my thought of getting back to the path the past mistakes of the fed we're paying for those and uh the only way they can fix it you know immediately is to cause one of the an extremely severe recession my my feeling is listen that you know i've been saying go to neutral uh you know that they've been too slow i'm just saying they've got to look at money as well as interest rates they never talked about money had they talked about money in 2021 we would not be in this situation today hey professor bear with me for two seconds i want to show everybody shares of nordstrom uh which was reporting earnings and the stock is soaring uh there it is by 17 you talk about a closely watched earnings report at this particular time given abercrombie is down 29 today and there's so much focus lately folks on retail and maybe each story is going to turn out to be a little bit different based on how each of the management teams are dealing with the environment and how shoppers are different depending on which store you look at you saw inventories up massively at abercrombie and fitch up 45 target up 43 walmart up 24.
kohl's up 40. now i promise you as i always do we're going to get the color inside this report courtney reagan our expert is doing that and she's going to come on and let you know exactly what the story is for why shares are popping 19 as we're having this conversation and professor it leads me back into you to talk about the consumer maybe we're over reading we see one report we say oh the consumer's weakening then we see another report like this and we say no maybe they're not weakening at all they're just being selective about where they're spending their money and you have to have the right mix of stuff and you have to have the right amount of stuff back in the store room not overflowing to the rafters well i think that both are are important i mean listen we all admit you know what's happening with with gasoline prices is hurting the consumer um i'm more very worried about this winner because i see what's happening the natural gas prices the main main source of heating another shock to the consumer there's no fiscal stimulus yes we've had way too much in 2020 and 2021 but now what are we going to do to say all right we're going to reverse all that throw us in the recession and stop the inflation or yeah you know there's inflation in the pipeline we're going to get ourselves down to a sustainable path and let that pass through don't forget the official statistics on inflation are very lagged we know that about housing we know that there was a lot more inflation in housing than the official statistics show so we're going to have that dribble of housing inflation that's going to go through the next two or three years so if they really want to stop the the cpi statistics inflation they won't have to go to a deflation now and that would be tragic so they got to recognize the reality they've made some bad mistakes are you going to turn 180 and slam the economy now i'm not saying they're doing wrong they've got to start moving up they were way late on all these things i'm just saying keep an eye on don't panic and overdo it big mistake of the fed was 2020 when they put too much money in in 2021 we don't want to make too much mistake are they going to try to just take it all away in 2022 i'm i'm beginning to get a bit concerned about overreaction and maybe some of the weakness we see in the economy is because uh you know the the fed is withdrawing liquidity perhaps a bit too quickly i think that you could go i mean you've been the loudest person on the network over the last couple of months saying the fed needs to do more now you're telling me they're doing too much they just got started i know i well first of all their talk of what they're going to do we've seen how that has tightened the markets you know bringing in the you know the long bond over three bringing mortgage rates over five percent when you saw home sales today scott i mean you take a look at some of these monthly reports i mean a snap is that a warning it is what we're seeing from the retailers a warning now listen they they definitely have to move up 50 um but their july meeting and i would just recommend that they you know and they if they would look at the money supply they wouldn't be in the position they are today back in 2020 and 2021.
are they gonna say okay we didn't get the money supply all the way back down you are for sure gonna have a recession and a bad one in 2020 uh 2023. you know my feeling is that maybe there's a lot of inflation in the pipeline listen they can't do a lot about it that's all really because of the liquidity they put in it's not like steering a wheel in a car oh we'll just turn this lever inflation goes down to two percent no uh maybe they should accept the inflation in the in the pipeline go we go easier get us back down to the two to three percent long term that they want but uh you know right now as i said i mean that was a pretty shocking statistic for me because you know i based all my inflation forecasts uh two years ago and one year ago on this money supply i had never thought that i was going to see a decline professor i want to bring it back to you before i welcome in some other guests to continue the conversation and that's about the market specifically just to give everybody and you an idea of how bad it's been of late and this from bespoke at 21 minutes after three today the number of times the s p 500 has traded in positive territory for the entire session over the last 100 trading days is the fewest since may of 2009.
so that leads me into a question to you as to whether you think that we are at a bottom close to a bottom you've seen a lot of markets over your years professor we haven't had that capitulation event the vix go to 40 or beyond as some people are saying you have to have what do you think you don't have to have it you usually have it i mean one thing about the stock market i don't think there's anything where you have to have something to call the bottom i think we're i think we're still within five percent of the bond i still think earnings are going to come in well and you're perfectly right i mean think about who is being hurt from this inflation lower income people where gasoline is so much more uh important and also look at one third of americans rent their homes rental prices rental costs are up 20 if you own your home my god you have bonanza we all know home prices are up 20 30 40 home equity is fine so look at the type of people that are really being hurt it's the lower third lower quarter lower third of of the uh of the entire income bracket and close 80 million people and uh you know you're right walmart target they're serving those those people are really hurting and that's why inflation is is sometimes called the cruelest tax of all because it really hurts the post and and then with the students hire clientele walmart target lower quality yeah uh we're not naive to that in any way and sympathetic obviously to what everybody is going through in terms of the prices that we've seen i bought norse from about three quarters of
Comments 0