저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 미국이 이미 경기침체에 들어갔다고 보며, 자신은 주식을 유지하되 이 환경에서는 암호화폐보다 주식이 상대적으로 안전하다고 주장한다. 캐시 우드의 발언: 공급망 문제와 러시아의 우크라이나 침공을 근거로 미국이 이미 경기침체라고 보고 있다. 영상 제작자의 정리: 다수 금융기관·투자자(Ken Langone, Peter Schiff, Deutsche Bank, Fannie Mae)와 CNBC 설문(81% 응답자) 및 미시간대 소비자심리지수 최저치를 근거로 침체 우려가 확산되었다고 설명한다. 경기침체 정의: 두 분기 연속 GDP 감소로 설명하며, 2분기 GDP 발표 다음 달 확정될 것이라고 언급한다. 금리와 주택시장: 연준의 금리 인상으로 주택담보대출·자동차·사업자 대출 금리가 상승하고 있으며, 30년 고정 모기지 평균금리가 약 6%로 2009년 이후 최고 수준이라고 말한다. 투자 전략: 패닉 매도는 피하고, S&P 500 내 맥도날드·스타벅스 같은 경기방어적 우량주 보유를 권한다. 유튜브 주식 등 투기적 종목은 회복이 어려울 수 있다고 본다. 암호화폐 전망: 거래소 유동성 문제가 암호화폐에서 가속될 수 있어 주식보다 위험하다고 평가하지만, 암호화폐 자체에 대해서는 여전히 강세(bullish)라고 밝힌다. 리스크: 경기침체 시 해고·파산·높은 차입비용·주식시장 하락이 동반될 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 침체 진입을 기정사실로 보며, 주식은 장기적으로 회복하고 암호화폐는 단기 리스크가 크다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
kathy wood just made a bombshell statement kathy wood literally just spoke on cnbc and she actually said that she believes or at least she thinks that the united states is already in a recession and so in this video i want to go ahead and talk a little bit about her thoughts talk about a little bit of what i'm seeing and also all the other people who have also predicted uh that the us will go into recession so let's just go ahead and get right into this video so kathy will went on and said that the u.s is probably already in a recession she cited two reasons as to why this might be happening she says supply chains which is something that she personally did not expect in her firm and she also cited the russia invasion of ukraine as another reason as to why she believes that the us is already in a recession she thinks that those two factors have basically pushed the us into a recession and she believes that we are in one right now now for those who don't know we do get the quarter of a quarter gdp reading uh this week and then we actually find out for sure if we are in a recession next month when we get the q2 uh gdp reading so that'll be something you're definitely going to want to pay attention to now i want to go ahead and touch on something else i want to go over some of the people in banks who have basically predicted a recession or said that the recession is coming whether it be this year or next year so let's just go ahead and get over it uh ken langone who is a legendary uh investor actually said that he believes that the us is already in a recession he actually came out on cnbc yesterday and actually said this uh peter schiff you guys know him that's the gold guy that's the mega bear the guy that basically says the mark is going to crash every year uh peter schiff also believes that the u.s is already in a recession right now you have deutsche bank deutsche bank in april became the number one first major investment bank to argue or basically uh hypothesize that the u.s would fall into a recession by 2023 you also have the federal national mortgage association aka fannie mae most of you guys know them uh they argued that the u.s is heading for a recession by the second half of next year now back in may cnbc actually did a survey and found that 81 of all adults that they surveyed said that they think that the us economy is likely to experience a recession this year so it's not just kathy woodward feels that way it's not just some of these banks and legendary investors consumers actually feel that way and i'm sure you guys know this because michigan actually had this consumer sentiment thing that came out and it had the lowest reading that it's ever had since the dang consumer sentiment uh reading was created back in like the 70s or something like that a very long time ago so even the american consumer the average american the regular person walking around working going to the grocery store actually feels like we're in a recession right now so that's something that you definitely want to understand and so now where are we well a rising number of financial experts say that the us is heading into a recession which for those who don't know is defined by two sequential quarters with a significant decline in economic activity or gdp that's what it's known as and so why does this matter well recessions are historically marked by widespread layoffs uh you have bankruptcies you've got higher borrowing costs and then you also have tons and tons of pain in the stock market which you guys are no stranger to if you've been in the stock market any time in 2022 it's been an absolute bloodbath right and so if the federal reserve continues to raise rates in order to clamp down inflation which i would argue they don't have a choice they have to we will see an increase in borrowing costs uh this is going to be for mortgages your car loans business loans you will see an increase so even if you qualify uh for a loan or your credit card or whatever you're getting the interest rate will automatically be higher than it was in the prior year and this is because uh the fed is raising interest rates now we're actually already seeing this in the housing market now it has become very clear at least in my opinion that the fed is literally trying to kill the hearts of market like they're literally trying to do that and it's become extremely clear because if you look at the housing market the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is like five point like eight percent like it's actually really close to six percent this is the highest level since 2009 you guys know what happened in 2009 not saying that it'll happen now but you guys know what happened in 2008 and 2009 and so this whole recession uh conversation is very interesting keep in mind we will find out very soon we actually find out next month if we are officially uh in a recession or not and so like i said i've been telling you guys what i'm personally doing because a lot of people ask the question well what should i do with my stock should i panic sell should i liquidate you never want to get into a period where the volatility is bothering you so much that you start panicking you end up selling your stocks you know the stock market's like literally the most resilient thing out there like it always bounces back it will bounce back now if you're in a bunch of crap if you're in a bunch of youtube stocks then yes those are probably not going to bounce back but if you're on the s p 500 you want a good solid quality company that can weather the storm or do well in this type of environment for example in my opinion like a mcdonald's or starbucks you know those are the type of companies that i think will actually fare well in a recession because regardless of what's happening people are going to eat like crap and people are going to buy coffee you know so just just stocks like that as long as you're positioned correctly and you're buying good quality things i actually think you'll be fine in a long time yes they'll be paying yes you will see a lot of red in your portfolio but i think over the long term uh your stocks and your investments will be okay now this brings us to the question to crypto how will this recession affect crypto prices well to be honest with you guys i hate to be the bearer of bad news but to be honest with you i think you could actually have a more negative impact on uh crypto more than stocks the reason why is because in crypto especially with these exchanges you are starting to see liquidity issues and if crypto continues to tank and go lower those uh liquidity issues are going to continue to accelerate and that could be extremely risky extremely dangerous and extremely bad for investors in their money so still bullish on crypto still like crypto have no issue with crypto but i just want to make it very clear that stocks is safer at least if you're investing in the right ones is safer than cryptocurrencies in this environment like i said uh if you want to go to safe route you can own something like a mcdonald's or a starbucks you know as opposed to maybe like a bitcoin there and i'm not saying to sell it if that's what you have or anything like that i'm just trying to explain to you guys the different risks right like if i'm weighing bitcoin ethereum versus uh two stocks that are pretty much recession proof in my opinion i'd rather have the stocks that are recession proof and so uh there you guys have it that'll go and conclude today's video thank you guys so much for watching feel free to like share and subscribe and i will see you guys in the next one
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