저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2018년 1월 9일 기준 모닝 업데이트 영상으로, 달러는 단기 상승 돌파 후 조정이 예상되고 금은 단기 약세지만 장기 구조는 유효하다는 진단이다. 거시/달러: 소비자신용이 2015년 이후 최고치를 기록해 GDP 강세 기대가 달러를 밀어올렸고, 주간 차트상 지난주 저항 돌파 여부가 핵심이다. 주간 저점 하향 이탈 시 2017년 저점까지 밀릴 수 있다고 봤다. 시간봉상 단기 되돌림을 예상했다. 금: 달러 강세로 약세 압력을 받았다. 20기간 이평선과 상단 저항 아래로 밀렸지만 장기 구조는 여전히 건전하다고 보고, 적절한 시점에 비중을 쌓아갈 계획이다. 오늘은 그 시점이 아니라고 판단했다. US Steel(X): 주간 상승삼각형 구조이며 41.57달러가 강한 저항이다. 단기 스캘핑만 가능하고, 해당 가격을 돌파·안착하면 매수 관점이 가능하다. 장기 스윙이라면 눌림 또는 41.57 돌파를 기다리라고 조언했다. (예측 대상 밖 종목 다수: GoPro, Tesla, Patriot 1 등) 테슬라는 주간 삼각형 상방 돌파 조짐이 있으나 실적·헤드라인 리스크를 경고했다. GoPro는 매각 이슈로 투기성이 높고 역사적 저점 하락 이후 매수를 피하라고 했다. 패트리엇 원(OTC)은 갭 상승 후 단기 눌림 매수 후 돌파 시 추가 매수 전략을 제시했다. 전반적으로 공격적 추격보다 손절선을 명확히 둔 분할·대기 전략을 강조했다.
다듬은 글
okay good morning folks and welcome to morning update for January V ninth let's begin with a review of the overall markets this morning in the pre market we have the Dow Jones NASDAQ and S&P futures up marginally for those commodity traders out there we're watching the US dollar as we always do we saw a continuation break out overnight before I went to bed last evening I did a quick market wrap with members and I mentioned that we were in a bull flag formation I expected a breakout we got the breakout unfortunately it's having a negative impact on the price of gold of which we have exposure to so the dollar why is it rallying with all the negative economic news well we had consumer credit which was announced for the month of November and it came in at a high not seen since 2015 and consumer spending is vital towards GDP so traders are reading into a strong GDP number I also have a buddy who does a lot of Fibonacci technical analysis I defer to him on that topic and last week we hit a very critical resistance level I've been watching that level as well because we are a mutual agreement that if we break down below go to a weekly chart if we break down below last week's lows we're coming down to the 2017 lows and if that breaks it's all over for the dollar but in the short term anyway especially with earnings coming out this week we'll keep an eye on the short-term picture there's an hourly chart of the dollar we're a bit extended here on an hourly basis looks like we're gonna pull back let's take a quick look for our chart of gold and how it's reacting all right so here's our breakdown last night before I went to bed we were trading above this blue line here the 20-period moving average and above this white line here which marked the upper band of resistance and I mention that we were beginning to pull back I was concerned about a breakout in the dollar and a pullback on gold we got that pulled overnight unfortunately but the longer term picture is still sound for gold so we are going to continue to build our positions here when we think the time is right today is probably not going to be the day let's get to our gold members stop chart requests this is where I review these symbols that are members submit for me to review on video the first chart up for fellow New Yorker Lawrence US Steel let's go to a weekly chart first alright so US Steel has had a massive run along with the material names since it bottomed out in 2016 we are in a rising triangle formation here's a lower band of support and while this is a very bullish chart we don't have much more upside here until we hit very very strong resistance at 41 57 and we will probably get there within the next week or so now take note of volume volume has been dropping off to the upside daily chart a new yearly high yesterday RSI is rising stokes arising so this 41:57 level which is here which a dis discusses resistance on the weekly chart is definitely within sight so how would I how would I trade this were I of the mind to trade it I would buy it on a new weekly high with a trailing stop loss order that's on a very short-term basis because I think you're gonna see sellers move in at 41:57 so you can only scalp a trade here a little bit too much risk for me at these levels back here would have been a different story as it consolidated and then began to break out right now it's just a little bit too risky for me what I would do back to the weekly chart what I would do is wait for a consolidation open up my position and then buy the breakout above this 41:57 level adding to my position because what the markets will have told you if we closed above this upper band of resistance is that all these buyers who've been holding through this downtrend and have been gritting their teeth hoping to get back to par they're gonna sell and they are out of the way now because we've managed to close above 41 57 and then the next challenge is going to be this resistance level back here at $44.99 so again from a long-term perspective as a longer-term swing trade or an investment I would wait for the pullback and or the breakout above 41:57 square weekly basis we were very very overbought we've pulled back some let's throw some lines up here to make some sense out of this sloppy mess okay same chart weekly basis we broke out I want to say sloppy mess I don't mean the stock price I just mean the the pullback here I want to make sense of it where are we at after this pretty nasty pullback we made a high of 49 56 we pulled all the way down to 34 14 so we were overbought relative to the RSI which is above 90 and let's change this to standard deviation Bollinger Band to a three standard deviation Bollinger Band and I'll show you when you should not buy stocks and that's when you have RSI above 90 and you're leaning into your third standard deviation Bollinger Band anyway so we pulled back went into a multi-week consolidation into this bull flag formation the week of January the second we broke out how was our volume a good volume breakout this is what you want to see volume with your breakout now what we're doing is we're pulling back and we're probably going to retest this breakout point you can argue that you know we did that yesterday Bob we rounded off the lows of the day it's not enough for me daily chart again let's make sense of this throw some lines up okay daily chart let's talk about where we were we were above the 90 level on RSI auto filled candlestick I talk about this all the time a sign of indecision at the top of a trading range never ever good it's a sign of a tug of war between bulls and bears so we pulled back entered a pennant formation we broke out on January the second and now we're have been extended beyond that breakout point now we could still move up to $44 per share but I wouldn't chase it volume yesterday was pretty high and that was to the downside so we may move up higher here to $44 per share me personally I would wait for a pullback and orderly pullback and I would watch the weekly charts go back to it for a second and ideally you buy it at this lower band of support with a stop right below it because if we break that back down into this bull flag formation and we close there on a weekly basis it means that we're probably going to go all the way down to this lower band here you don't know any part of that so set your stop right below this lower band of support I would show patience with square wait for it to come to you Patriot 1 technologies OTC stock I've spoken about this one a couple of years ago just one of those symbols that you remember so we were in a triangle formation we were very overbought at least relative to the bounzer bands we then broke out of this triangle formation the week of January the second this week a gap higher now what's important here is to note that you have sellers above as noted by this wick on this weekly candlestick we have four more trading days left to go a lot can happen we can close at the highs for all I know or we can close back down and fill this gap I don't know so on a weekly basis all we're doing is doing the snapshot in time appreciating the fact that it's only Tuesday morning the markets not open yet we have four full trading days left to go a lot can happen but as it stands right now we have RSI which is broken out and is rising higher lows on both RSI and Stokes same deal here on Stoke RSI volume very good even for one day this week this is outstanding volume assuming that buyers continue to move into the shares daily chart on a daily basis the bull case is that we broke out on RSI validating the breakout on price now I cannot buy this stock now when it's trading up and into the third standard deviation Bollinger Band cannot move higher despite my conservative nature sure absolutely but it's not going to be a consistent rally you're going to get a pullback and you've already seemed to begin as noted by this cell is moving in yesterday and selling strength remember your overhead supply these buyers back here sat through the sell-off on a penny stock folks they want their money back it's a highly speculative bet they want their money back volume these past two days outstanding so we had outstanding volume on Monday yet we sold off the highs of the day that leads me to want to take a look at a one-hour chart to see how poised to open up here and I will caution before I get into this chart we traded less than a million shares yesterday and that was on a very high volume day so a very thinly traded stock folks let's throw some lines up here ok so here is your bull flag formation it's not a bad setup here so if you're gonna buy it this morning no matter what I say then go ahead if you're if you're gonna buy it at yesterday's closing price or a bit lower fine scratch the edge put on a few shares but use a stop right below yesterday's lows because if we break down below yesterday's lows we're gonna fill the gap which opened up yesterday and that's a very conservative play if you want to give it some room to run expecting a filling of the gap fine at least use a stop loss right below 1.17 which was prior resistance it should now act as support and I would add to the trade and this is a very short-term trade I'm using an hourly chart very volatile so this is not for the longer-term investor or swing trader this is for Wars day traders and short-term swing traders and I would buy more on a breakout above this upper band of resistance on the hourly chart Tesla weekly chart we're in a very tight triangle formation we're beginning to break out on Stokes we have broken out on RSI we rallied through it pulled back we've already retested the breakout point on RSI so we have an indicator leading price performance we're not quite at the high of resistance yet on price so this chart is looking good now remember there's a lot of headline risk with Tesla and earnings are coming up so keep that in the front of your mind we are breaking out on a weekly basis on stoke RSI and remember for trading days left to go folks so while this chart looks really good so far this week it could all change by Friday we have a double bottom set up on ultimate oscillator we appear poised to breakout higher lows on Williams percentage our daily chart and so we have a breakout above a secondary downtrend line on RSI higher lows being put in and the beginning of some higher highs not a lot of conviction here yet though Stokes are rising a very bullish day yesterday up six point two six percent if you're going to trade these shares no matter what I say you're probably gonna get a quick pull back this morning you may consider it scratching the itch buying a few shares on that pullback an anticipation of a rally back and then add on a breakout above this upper band of resistance and of course place your stop right below this support level if in fact we do breakout and then fail we do break back down meaning we close out the day above this upper band of resistance yet tomorrow Thursday Friday next Monday who cares if we break back down into this trading range it's all over it's a breakout point failure a bull trap you want to stop out GoPro weekly chart so this is a stock that's setting up for an extreme oversold stock we are not there yet this is a highly speculative trade and it's going to become a stock that is driven less by fundamentals and more by headline news the company is on the block it's up for sale they have gone to JPMorgan looking for a buyer so understand what's driving these shares and that is headline news now looking at this chart on a weekly basis you may be saying there's no way to have avoided that headline risk yesterday morning and avoided the bloodbath there was all you needed to do if you were analyzing and watching the shares take your crayon out and formulate your strategy when do you want to own it when do you want to avoid it and it was as simple as putting up two little lines now using my style of trading you could have bought here November the 13th or year the week of November the 20th or year the week of November the 27th on a closing basis because we were defending the support level and uses stop right below this seven point nine six level which if we closed out the week below that lower band the support you really don't want to be involved with the stock because we failed to hold the support level and in all probability a resumption of this downtrend was at hand because the path of least resistance had not changed it remained to the downside so buying it here was very speculative and I would have advocated only putting on a small position thus if it breaks down below support your losses small no psychological hurdles to overcome here you live to play another day so fast forward we took out 27.96 level the week of December the fourth you would have been stopped out of you trade with a loved 7.89 and then you would have avoided this mess now would I buy pronoun no way we are trading down below critical resistance volume to the downside is very high why do we rally yesterday I think it was for purely technical reasons we traded all the way down through $5 per share there abouts too shy of it we were trading very low below V and we still remain below the third standard deviation Bollinger Band but we couldn't close back above this prior lower band of this downtrend channel I would avoid these shares can they rally sure but not with my money now if we see RSI which continues to drop go down below let's call it the 15 level I wouldn't be looking to enter GoPro as an extreme oversold trade and that's a completely different style of trade then a continuation breakout trade or an early stage recovery trade so while the shares for all I know could pop higher by a dollar today it's not going to be with my money too much risk not enough reward and that's it folks everybody have a profitable trading day members I will speak to you this evening on market wrap well we'll go over the day's events be well folks
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