저자: TheUNDERDOGINVESTOR · 외국인
요약 보기
크록스(CROX)는 팬데믹 이후에도 성장 지속, 미국 정체에도 중국·인도 고성장, EPS 연 40% 성장과 대규모 자사주 매입으로 저평가 상태. 높은 영업이익률(나이키 대비 약 2배)과 단순 제조 구조를 강조. 리루·노버트 루(무관계) 등 유명 가치투자자의 신규 보유를 근거로 제시. 진행자는 중장기 보유 의향을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
All right, so a quick update on Crocs. I mentioned I have a midsize position in this plus I've sold puts on it and bought calls on it. So, uh it's doing really well lately after the uh most recent earnings call. And uh it's been on people's radar now because of this. Um so this is Leelu. He is a well-known value investor and uh famously for his association with uh Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
So Charlie Munger is Warren Buffett's uh business partner and a legendary investor in his own right and Leelu is the only person that he'd ever given outside money to to manage for himself. He normally invests uh on his own, but uh he was so impressed with Leelu that he gave him some of uh the Munger family money for him to invest and uh last quarter uh when the filings came out about which hedge funds own what.
Uh and it turns out that he had a new position in Crocs. Now, this is only his US stocks. uh he has a lot of other stocks in China that are not shown here because uh the SEC filings for uh hedge funds only require you to uh show your US holdings, but this is kind of interesting. So, it's uh currently a one and a half% position.
You might be buying more. Uh but it seemed like he timed it really well because um it got down in the 70s and 80s and uh I was backing up the truck and telling people that uh I thought this was a great idea and then he bought it and now it's up to 100. So uh you know going from the end of quarter to here uh that return uh on a quarterly basis is you know nice work if you can get it.
Uh so as a percentage of his portfolio, it's not huge, but you know uh he's got a huge portfolio. So that's $50 million uh that he invested in it and you know uh thinks it's a good buy. And previously it had come on people's radar because of this person uh Norbert Louu uh no relation who is famously known uh for his association with uh Joel Greenblat and uh Joel Greenblat gave him some money to run and uh he runs a very concentrated portfolio and sometimes he'll go uh you know years before he buys anything and then um recently he bought uh Crocs and PayPal and uh PayPal's not doing really well but Crocs is uh and it's sort of one of those things that's hidden in plain sight.
So, uh, during the pandemic, people thought this was a fed that, um, you know, it was, uh, a lot of people buying Crocs because they're stuck at home and, uh, that, you know, that could not continue. But it did keep going up after the, uh, pandemic ended. And, uh, so it's a, uh, 20% compounded annual growth rate if you start from 2018.
And although it's flattened out in the US uh and you know if you consider um sales of crocs uh along with the declining sales of hey dude uh it is kind of flat in the US but uh the sales of crocs are rapidly growing overseas. Uh China and India are currently very small markets but uh it's growing like 30% in India and uh China year-over-year.
So that could be a huge growth market for it. uh earnings per share also up an incredible amount of 40% compounded annual growth rate and uh they are massively buying back shares. So they bought about uh 10% of their shares last year. So you have a company that's growing uh priced like it's shrinking but it's growing and uh they're buying back shares.
Uh doesn't have to take a lot for it to go right. And people uh don't like fashion brands and I think this is uh wrongfully characterized as a fashion brand. So these are comfortable shoes. They're not nicel lookinging shoes. They're comfortable and comfort never goes out of style. And if you look at the uh operating margin, it's very high compared to other fashion brands.
And I would say that if you compared it to a shoe maker like Nike, it would be even more impressive because shoes are pieces of leather and you have to sew them together. And Crocs is just uh liquid rubber injected into a mold. I have a pair here. And uh this is one mold and the strap is another. And there's two pieces of injection molded rubber and you slap them together.
And that's fine. It doesn't take any skilled labor to cut the leather to sew it together. It's a mold which comes out the same every time. So it's a very predictable. They're buying back stock at a huge rate. And um as I said, if you think of this versus other uh shoe brands, it's very attractive. Uh high margin, twice the margin of uh other shoe brands like Nike.
And uh it's growing. It's buying back shares. And if you're worried about knockoffs, if you go on Amazon.com and search for Crocs and then uh sort by price, low to high, and sort by price high to low, uh you'll see that they go anywhere from $25 to $200. So they've got the whole gamut covered. And uh those jibbits that uh people like to put on their crocs to customize them, especially kids, uh you know, those they could make for pennies, literally pennies, and sell them for dollars.
Uh so it's a high margin, and it's a great uh business for them. And they also have branding deals with uh people like uh Nintendo and Pokemon and stuff like that. So uh lots of ways you could win with this. But anyway, uh that's just my thoughts on that one. Uh let me know what you guys think in the comments.
And uh you know, this isn't investment advice. This is just me walking through my process. And uh I mentioned that this used to be a trading sardine for me. I would buy it when it got below 100 and I would sell it like 105, 108, and then uh reload when it got lower. And then uh when it dropped to the 80s and then the 70s, I was just backing up the truck and I'm very happy with it now.
Uh, but I plan to hold this for a while and see how it goes because I think uh it has more room to run. But that's just my opinion. Uh, this isn't me telling you how to invest. This is just me talking about how I invest in my process and it helps me because uh it keeps me from changing my mind and falling victim to thesis drift.
Anyway, uh if you got something out of this, um subscribe so you'll see future videos and uh leave a question or comment in the comment section if you uh agree or disagree. Have a great day, everyone.
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