저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 장기 투자에서는 자국 편향을 버리고 글로벌 분산투자를 하며, 단기 변동성에 흔들리지 말고 장기 목표에 집중해야 한다. 국가 분산: 미국·소형국 등 자국 주식을 선호하는 경향이 흔한 실수다. 장기 수익률(30년 기준)은 주요 주식 범주 간에 거의 같아진다. 공급 변화가 장기 가격 결정에 수요 변화보다 더 큰 영향을 준다. 국가별 성과는 몇 년씩 번갈아 우위를 바꾸며, 장기적으로는 전 세계 시장 평균과 수렴한다. 세계 시장은 미국 주식이 절반을 조금 넘는 구조다. 따라서 글로벌 분산투자를 하면 장기 주식 수익률에 더 매끄럽게 도달할 수 있다. 특정 국가가 오랫동안 부진해도 글로벌 분산이 도움이 된다. 변동성 대응: 감정이 적이며, 시장 변동은 예측 불가능하다. 전쟁 전날 잠 못 드는 장군의 비유처럼 걱정은 판단력을 떨어뜨린다. 단기 변동(3주 10% 등)은 정상적이며 빠르게 회복되기도 한다. 하락 시 자산은 더 싸지므로 단기 소음이 아닌 실질 요인과 장기 목표에 집중해야 한다. 평온을 유지하는 최선의 방법은 단기를 무시하고 장기에 집중하는 것이다. 발언 중 특정 종목·지수의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
this is Sun deponent with sangkum bonding phil fisher was a great american legendary investor who had gone ahead and created a lot of wealth by identifying the growth stocks he didn't even stop there but he went on to write all his ideas in a book called common stocks and uncommon profits which was which is considered to be one of the first initial books to be read when someone is serious into getting into investing he has really created a template for growth stocks identifying growth companies in its early or mid stages and writing the whole growth through the cycle phil fisher has had created the Fisher Investments advisory firms and his son Ken Fisher is right now running the Fisher Investments Ken Fisher also is an astute investor and here are some investing wisdom from the Fisher Investments Group take a look almost always and almost everywhere people get this wrong they tend to prefer to own stocks from their own country in America the biggest and broadest stock market in the world most diverse but also in small countries the fact is that when you think of broad categories of equity the very long returns 30-year returns of them tend to be almost identical if not identical to other broad categories of equity if the categories are calculated correctly there's a lot of incorrect ways to calculate equity returns but calculated correctly in the long term they get real similar because in the long term as I wrote about in my only three questions book shifts in supply seven eight ten years from now or much more important in determining pricing than shifts in demand and can overwhelm any change in demand demand fluctuates in the short term based on human emotion supply can be increased or decreased nearly infinitely to overwhelm any perception of superiority in category and so if you look at US versus foreign and you go back close to forever they go back and forth back and forth back and forth of us doing better than foreign for a few years foreign doing better than us for a few years right down the middle is the totality of global since the world is a little more than half us equities and money value and what that means is you really get a smoother ride to that long-term equity return if you don't focus on your local home country bias and instead invest globally diversified globally and emit the world market in some periods it'll do worse than the American market or if you're French the French market or if you're Japanese the Japanese market and sometimes for a long time but in the end it comes back to being the same and if you're in one that underperform for a long time global helps you if you're in one that outperformed for a long time it's not too long before if you're just in that country you're gonna have a disappointing time think globally invest globally it really gets you to the equity return in the long term in the smoothest path that's a tough one because basically not being comms the function of your emotions and almost always whether it's about volatility or other things in the marketplace your emotions to your enemy not your friend the way I've always kind of thought about this is sort of like thinking about a battlefield general of a long time ago maybe in the Civil War the night before going into battle if in fact you have to stay up all night worrying about the battle and thinking about the battle would be a nervous about the battle I mean afraid of what might happen in the battle then you don't sleep enough in the next day and the battle you're not as good as you should be and you're not peak performance the best thing to do with volatility is to focus on more real things market bouncing around for any reason or no reason all the time 2% is what the market calls Tuesday I said that in my 2006 only a few questions book but in reality for the market to move 10% in three weeks like it has in the last few weeks is pretty normal it's not abnormal and it bounces back just as fast when that happens exactly when I don't know and there is no way to know that's part of the problem but then what people do is they don't want to believe that they want to believe there's a fundamental real reason that drives the volatility and in fact there isn't markets bounced around they're a bottle you knew they were volatile so what you do is you focus on real things and you remember that if you liked things before after downside volatility they're cheaper they're better rationally you should think they're more favorable than they were before and you should look toward the real things and not focus on the short turn noise and think about what your long-term objectives are and how you accomplish those the best way to stay calm is to focus on the long-term and ignore the short-term
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