저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Ackman는 가치투자의 핵심으로 예측 가능한 사업 선별을 강조한다. 5~10년 후 사업 모습을 높은 확신으로 예측할 수 있는 기업, 즉 단순하고 예측 가능한 자유현금흐름 창출 기업을 보유 대상으로 삼는다. 기술 혁신 환경에서 사업 지속성 예측이 가장 어렵다고 본다. 과거 대형 투자 실수 후 '핵심 원칙을 돌에 새김'으로 원칙 준수를 강화했고, 이후 6년간 최고 성과를 냈다고 언급한다. 구체적 자산 가격 전망은 없다.
다듬은 글
Um, can you maybe talk a little bit about your approach to value investing? What do your principles, your process look like and how does that help you find companies that you would own for decades? I think one of the big things I learned from Buffett is that you sort through the world for things that you can understand and know.
What's fascinating about the stock market is securities move up and down every day on the basis of all kinds of information. And I think there are many businesses, it's just unknowable what they're worth, but they still trade. They move up and down. It's kind of an interesting sort of phenomenon. What we do is we kind of screen for the world.
Uh I would I would screen the world for things that we can predict and know and that has something to do with what we know, but it has a lot more to do with the characteristics of a business that have a high degree of predictability. And and what we think about when we're buying businesses, you know, these are bonds really.
We're looking for very very high certainty uh you know, companies that we can theoretically sort of own forever. And that's a hard that's the most difficult thing to do in investing is not building a financial model but predicting the durability you know of a business particularly in a world where there's constant technological innovation when two students you know who dropped out of you know ABC what used to be a great university um and uh you know rented a garage and they come up with some disruptive uh technology that's a very hard thing to envision so you have to think about you know these think about modes you Michael Porter who's another mentor of mine at least you know uh business school professor of mine very sadly has severe Alzheimer's now um but his uh the first book he wrote uh is probably one of the most cited pieces of any kind of research and so you should you know give it a read um you know just thinking about the various balances of power if you will in uh you know the forces that affect a business
so I'll I'll start with our our principles which if some of you know our firm we literally have carved in stone just to make sure that we never forget them which I think is a really helpful way to visualize it. Um and and you kind of can memorize these principles, but I would say fundamentally I think first and foremost what we're looking for are really great businesses.
And what I mean by that is ultimately we're looking for businesses where we can have a very high degree of confidence what the future will look like out five 10 years. And a lot of those things I think ultimately come down to if you want to call it a Porter's five forces analysis, but really understanding the competitive dynamics um the secular growth opportunities and feeling that you can assess with a very high degree of confidence about how a business can end up.
It'd be a lot better than we think but really in particular this concept of margin of safety making sure it can't be a lot worse than what we think. So we put a high degree of what we call business certainty. So, I think, you know, Bill likes to say it's kind of the simple, predictable, free cash flow generative business, which I think is a great line.
Um, but that's really the thought process behind what we're looking for. I want to get into your psyche for a second if I may. So, many companies have principles, but Ryan mentioned it and I actually saw it. You carved those principles in a stone tablet and I think it's all over the office, right? Yeah.
Um it's almost like your own 10 in that case maybe eight commandments. How did that come about? Well, it came about by when we veered right. So um we had a great initial uh first you know kind of dozen years of purging square and then we made an biggest investment mistake uh certainly of my career and when you're CEO you know you take credit for the mistakes 100% of credit you share credit for the successes and the mistake made had we stuck to our core principles um we' never made the investment in the first place and we had always talked about these principles but we hadn't sort of engraved them in stone so I told a member of the team come back with a piece of granite and a chisel and we're going to put this up on the and he came back with a deal toy um has a little weight in it so it feels and looks a little bit like stone but it served the same purpose actually people underestimate the power of almost like checklists considered a checklist and the kind of the advice of the team was if I ever uh veer just hit me over the head with this thing and uh and it worked and we've actually had the best um you know since the the development of that little tablet we've had the best six years in our our history and one of the beauties of the investment business is you can recover even from big mistakes.
The power of compounding. Yes, never lose money, but when that happens, you can recover. Bill Lackman says the secret to finding a company you can own for decades is actually simple. The number one rule is this. Understand the business really well? How does it make money? Why do customers keep coming back?
What's stopping competitors from taking its market share? Once you figure this out, Aman believes 90% of your investing job is already done. Because when you truly understand a business, you don't panic during short-term noise and you will know if it can keep compounding wealth for years. His advice, don't chase complexity.
If a business is too hard to understand, live it. Instead, focus on highquality companies with durable advantages that you would be happy to own for decades. That's where your long-term wealth is
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