원문 보기
the need to move money from place to place the cost of doing so the overhead as you put it makes me think believe it or not of bitcoin because some people have said hey bitcoin is the answer to those problems are you a believer well bitcoin is exciting because it shows how cheap it can be uh bitcoin is is better than currency and you don't have to be physically in the same place and of course for large transactions currency can can get pretty inconvenient the customers we're talking about aren't trying to be anonymous you know they're willing to be uh known so the bitcoin technology is key and you could add to it or you could build a similar technology uh where there's enough attribution that people feel comfortable this is nothing to do with uh terrorism or any type of money laundering so what does buffett not like right now that would be bitcoin he says that bitcoin right now it looks a little bit tulip like to him it's not a currency i mean it you know it it it does not mean to test it for currency it it i wouldn't be surprised if it's not around in 10 or 20 years why does it not meet the definition of a currency well because people say well i'll sell you goods and bitcoins but they change the price of those every time the price of the dollar changes in relation they're pricing off the dollar they could say well i'll sell it to you in barrels of oil but if they ch every time the price of oil changes they change the number of barrels you have to have that's not your oil is not the currency the other technology breaks orwell's dictum it breaks orwell's dictum by providing proof of publishing at a certain time and that is the intellectual underpinning of that whole system and can be used for lots and lots of other things and so that's the big expansion we're about to see uh in bitcoin all derives from this basic premise that you can prove that a particular statement a particular consensus a particular contract happened at a particular time globally and it requires a subversion of every single jurisdiction where people are running bitcoin to overturn that am i right in understanding that you're saying that the bitcoin architecture has applications far beyond the economic role that bitcoin can play and that that architecture is very strengthening to the life of information in the digital space making it less vulnerable to the kind of mischief you talked about in russia or elsewhere is that what you're saying exactly exactly that underlying architecture can be used for publishers for example uh so that as an example we are starting to use bitcoin wikileaks uh stuffing our um cryptographic keys of stuff that we publish so we proved that we have published stuff at a particular time uh by stuffing it in bitcoin in the blockchain and then if someone were to come and try and modify the material that we have published to take out particular parts that would be detectable do you think bitcoin will be disruptive in that way i mean now it's a speculative currency will it be something that will be what normal consumers would use and will disrupt the banking industry now my opinion of bitcoin is that i i mean i think bitcoin is probably a good thing um but it's it's essentially uh it its main thing will be i mean this would probably get quoted here and there but the it it's it's i think it's primarily going to be a means of of doing illegal transactions um but that's not necessarily entirely bad because you know something should be maybe shouldn't be illegal so but the combination of silk road and bitcoin will save us well it will be useful for legal and illegal transactions otherwise would have no value as a use of for for a legal transaction because you have to have a legal to illegal bridge yeah i don't own any bitcoin of in fact uh one can pay for a tour on virgin galactic up to the moon with bitcoin i think the the winklevoss twins have said that they would do exactly that you think this is a currency a currency that's really going to work eventually well i think it is working um and there will be other currencies like it that may maybe even better um but in the meantime um there's a big industry around bitcoin and um you know people have made fortunes out of bitcoin some people have lost money to bitcoin it's volatile it's volatile yeah but it is quite volatile but and but you know when in politic volatility people can make money out of volatility why was it important for you to give it sort of that stamp of approval that endorsement by saying to the winklevoss twins yes you can pay for the uh the ride with bitcoin because i'm not foolish i mean if people have got lots of bitcoins and they want to go to space um i'd much rather they spent that money on our spaceship whether i keep fitting bitcoins is another matter i'd much rather they spent that money on on a virgin galactic spaceship than on uh you know elon will be sending people to space one day on elon's spaceship so we'll grab the money while it's while it's there elon versus i want to distinguish bitcoin from the technology such as blockchain and those kinds of because when we talk about bitcoin one might be referring to either of those things and i just want to create the distinction between those things well why don't you i think why don't you talk about well occur uh okay um a currency cryptocurrency there are two purposes of a currency a medium of exchange and a store hold of wealth i can have a bond or so on um and then there's the question of which one is it bitcoin ethereum is it going to be another technology question okay so all of those things are on the table right now it's um it's not an effective medium of exchange you know you like that bit some bitcoin i want to go spend it bitcoin you can't use it as an effective medium exchange other than in a very limited number of cases which can also be threatened in terms of what the secrecy of those transactions are and things that are being done by governments to get beyond that secrecy so it's not an effective medium exchange as of now and it's not an effective storehold of wealth and that's because the speculation on it is such and the participant in it is something that i would say is a classic bubble kind of situation i mean if you look at the nature of the participant in it and you say what is the level of sophistication in their understanding the ability is do we have a sophisticated investor who is then actually thinking in terms of expected value terms of what where that's going to be and so on or do we have an investor who is inclined to then flip it and trading in and out and what's that component you can by the way have a wonderful investment that's a long-term investment and still have a bubble in that investment so so i'm not saying this is a forever thing but the nature of the participants in that investment and what they're doing has made it a bubble of you know what i doesn't mean it's a worthless investment it just means that when you look at the characteristics of what constitutes a bubble the purchase for resale by a naive group of people who are attracted because it's moving up it has those bubble characteristics okay and then um and then so um and then there's the question of what is the version of it so if i take bitcoin and then there's ethereum and then there's the i don't know each one of those that might come and how will they operate i would say that as distinct from the blockchain notion of the and the whole concept of cryptocurrency which has a lot of merit to it so um but as a currency you can't have the volatility driven by speculation on it make it a storehold of wealth so it that's that's in its characteristics right now are standing in the way of its potential it may be engineered differently to some extent there you know maybe if you created um a different engineer if i was trying to make it effective as a currency i would engineer how i do that differently i won't digress into how i would engineer it to do it differently so i think it has a lot of potential as um as a as a concept and blockchain but at the same time it has these issues i'm referring to what about crypto does that ever become a an actual means of transacting yeah it does still uh when i said crypto am i allowed to say crypto i hope you're allowed to say crypto can i bring it up i would really like bloomberg to take this article that i wrote for them in 2013 out of their paywall but basically you know my view at the time which i've held since today haven't changed is that everybody should probably have one percent of their assets in bitcoin specifically yeah um i still believe that today and i think it is just a fantastic hedge so if you go back to the conversation this morning when you see the amount of leverage the financial industry is running and you think about all these dislocations and all these exogenous things that are happening that you can't predict there's a lot of risk to the downside and it would be great that an average individual citizen of any country in the world has an uncorrelated hedge and i've said this repeatedly at nauseam on the show every financial instrument is correlated but buffett is that warren buffett says has zero value zero in here unless someone pays more i think he's an exceptional uh person i've learned an enormous amount both from afar and the few interactions i've had with him he is completely wrong and outdated shouldn't the price have gone up during this crime haven um went down like gold if it was really digital gold i i think that you have to look more at volumes uh these are not necessarily event driven strategies meaning you don't you don't call the digital gold no you didn't say that no you didn't that's the that's the that's the that's what people say i don't think you buy i don't think when you know you wake up and you see a coronavirus care and the dow down 2000 you should not be going in and buying bitcoin that is an idiotic strategy i think a reasonable strategy is to say one percent of my net worth should be in something that is completely uncorrelated to the world and how the world works you quietly and quick you know over some number of time accumulate a position and then you just never look at it again and hope that that insurance under the mattress never has to come due right but if it does it will protect you because then that thing will be hundreds of thousands or million dollars a coin
댓글 0