저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
신간 출간 홍보 겸 인터뷰. 핵심은 개별주 투자는 조사하면 누구나 가능하다는 점이며, AI(챗GPT·퍼플렉시티)로 정보 격차가 줄었다고 본다. 개별 종목은 금 관련주 사례처럼 급등 시 자체 규칙(예: 110% 상승은 과열)으로 점검한다고 말한다. 다만 지수 투자 병행을 권한다. 세대 투자 관점: Z세대의 밈주식·제로데이 옵션 거래를 비판하고, 장기 적립과 보유(buy and hold)를 강조한다. 애플처럼 일상에서 쓰는 기업을 사라는 취지다. 암호화폐는 수익 목적이 아니라 미국 부채(37조 달러) 관련 위험에 대한 보험 개념으로 언급한다. AI 붐: 엔비디아–오픈AI식 벤더 파이낸싱을 우려하는 게일 주장에 공감하면서도, 과거 루슨트·노텔과 달리 현금 기반이 아니라 부채 기반이라 위험이 다르다고 본다. 현재 대형 언어모델 기업 대부분이 수익을 내지 못하는 점도 지적한다. 소비자 양극화: AI·기술 경기는 호황이나 소비자는 도움이 필요하다는 진단. 자동차 부품 등 생활 밀착 소비 사례를 든다. 향후 시장 전망: 현재를 1920년대 같은 호황으로 보면서도 즉각적 대폭락은 가정하지 않는다. 2000년·2008년 같은 하락도 매도하지 않고 버티면 견딜 수 있었다는 워런 버핏식 장기 보유 논리를 편다. 개별 종목 가격 목표나 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Our next guest is a dear friend and a best-selling author. Booyah. Long-term Squawkbox guy, long-term CNBC guy, Jim Kramer. Well, first of all, thank you for having me. I've known you both for a lot longer than your shows begin, but I love the show and you know, the 30th was one of the greatest parties.
Congratulations to you because you have a book a long time in the making that I can't wait to read. I hope I can get a chance to do so. Fascinating. 1929. I remember when you and I went back from the days of Larry Cuddlo. Yes. And yes, it was I remember doing something even before that bullseye. Do you remember?
We were kind of like bickering back and forth on set. Well, look, I tried to I tried to hire you for the Street.com 100 times. I said, "If I got her for The Street.com, we would be successful." And I didn't. So, I hired her for to be Cuddlo's backup. And wow, wow, what a star. This is This is Bullseye.
This is This is like This is back in the day. Done Ratigan doing bullseye, right? I remember that. Jim and I used to play around the edges with that disagree. But but we did it as a it was a shtick. We did it on purpose. It was just We had to develop the disagreement. We couldn't really have it. So, it was all foe.
Yeah. But it was it was all part of heat. But I want to talk about why you're here today. I don't want them to roll past this. His new book is out tomorrow. It's called How to Make Money in Any Market. Make sure you go get this book. This is for anybody who wants to figure out what they should be doing.
And Jim, this is a different book for you. Is it? Yes. Well, it's a how-to book. You tough category, but let's say someone mentions a stock here. Okay. And a person at home says, "You know what? I want to know how to research that. I want to know if it's right." That's the process. I talk about how you observe your curiosity.
Here's how you can look into it. Some of it is the fact that we now have chat GPT and perplexity but a lot of it is just like please invest right and you can invest in individual stocks plus index funds which is now against somehow against the orthodoxy. So I find that when someone says, "Look, I uh there's a change at the top in uh in Barrack, we just had America just retired.
Let's look into that. Maybe it it's time to buy a gold stock." But then you see it's up 110. My rules say that's up too much. So we just we go through it. General guidelines for doing and and you're right. This comes as so much of the the American investing dollars are going into passive index, right?
And I'm trying to say I know you want to invest wisely as opposed to I need you to stop buying index funds. It's the opposite. Have index, but I know you're curious about individual stocks. You wouldn't be tuning in. So here's the right way. I want to know if you wrote this book 20 years ago, would it be very different to than today?
Meaning you think it's fundamentally changed how to examine and value shares in a world where the indexes are so important. So like if your if your stock is in an index, that seems to be helpful. If it's not and could potentially be, that could be helpful. If it's never going to be, that will not be helpful.
Well, look, I think you rais a great point, which is that at what point would I have done this? And I would say, you know what, back then you couldn't get the stuff you needed. I mean, can you imagine if you go to you have Atkins on who is a really fascinating guest? Me, how about if you go two reports a year?
That could be tougher, but I know how to I explain how to research it based on the conference calls. But 20 years ago, it wasn't possible for the individual to get the same information that a professional could. Now, because of artificial intelligence, it's the same. So, it's a great equalizer. It is.
I find it incredible. I mean, before I came out here today, I had to look up some things for for the 9:00 show. I like to do more than one, but I wanted to compare a bunch of stocks. I wanted to compare Barrack with Agniko Eagle, which is another great gold stock. They come on all the time, and Newmont.
So very quickly I can do the comparison just like this before I come out just in case. Hey Jim, what's new and it's not necessarily what you would do but on my nine o'clock it would be and I've got it and I've got the different characteristics and I again I have to check because it's so often incorrect and that's the big problem.
So what is the answer to those? It's it's exactly in keep it's they're all between 108% and 120% in keeping with the fact that goals at a record high. Okay. Um, one of the things you do though is you lay out and explain to people if you're not in this game, you you better be. Yeah. Well, I think that what's happened is people gave up.
I find this new generation and look, I I we can't discriminate against generations either. Gen Z plays a lot of stuff that I regard as being uh let's say one trick pony. They'll they'll like a What do you mean meme stocks? Yes, they love the meme stocks or they one of the things that they do zero day options but they don't invest over time and when I was living in my car I put away $10 to $50 a month and it ends up being a lot of money and I just want people to invest because I think I don't want people to work and then die at their desk because it's so hard to save.
They think it's hard. They always think they've given up. They think that their parents are always going to be richer than we are. We I lived in a generation where I presumed I was going to be richer than my than my parents. But don't you think that part of what's happened pretty well did okay that generation is now trying to shoot for the moon, right?
It's it's turned into less investing and maybe more of a speculation because they feel like the only way out is that but they can buy companies that they observe. I mean they love Robin Hood. They should have bought the darn stock. They use Apple every day. Don't listen to Jeffreeze which says it's not doing that well.
Go look at the lines that I posted in Osaka in Tokyo. I mean, take a look at the lines here. Watch all this weekend. iPhone 17. Exactly. How many ads did you I mean, I don't know. I was inundated with ads. It was really painful. But but I think half of them were for the 17. I'm not buying the 17. Verizon's buying it.
T-Mobile's buying it. Okay. What about all the folks, especially the younger people who say that the future is crypto? How I say crypto's finest. And how do you how do you value that? How do you what is the sort of process with which you would use? Well, I'm using it as insurance and it's an insurance against the 37 trillion that that we owe.
Of course, we do have a government shutdown, but at least it's not connected to a deadline involving, you know, refinancing for the government, which is really good. There's no the government shutdown is not done at the same time as a possible cataclysm of not paying our bills. But I don't know. Well, I I I think that crypto is I'm not valuing as fun.
I'm valuing it as anti what they the younger people think is our country's problems. I they may know that one, right? But then again, maybe my generation never has to see it and uh their generation is going to have to live with what happens. When you talk about what the younger generation is involved in, I've talked to other investors who worry that it's into this, as you're saying, almost like a gambling mentality instead of a longer term.
So, what do you do for longer term? Does that mean you could still play with some of these things and go after them, but you want to take some of your money and make sure it's there for the long haul? Right. I want investing, not trading. I think that one of the things that we've made a mistake on is that we and we do it.
Look, it it's a the propensity is to talk about buy, sell, hold because we have a lot of analysts on, but how about buy and hold or buy and homework. So, how many times do people trade out of Apple because each launch was problematic? How about the incredible rush against uh what I regard as being this the AI market that was great for Meta, it turned out to be great for Alphabet once they won the lawsuit.
So, I just think that there were so many opportunities. Right in your face. Right in your face. Right now, you've talked about recently just this idea that there's two economies out there, right? You've got the AI and the tech one that is a booming economy, but on the other hand, you have a consumer that probably needs a little help.
I think the consumer does and I look, I saw the the fire pal cartoon. I don't know. I mean, I'm I that's hard for me because he's a gentleman. He's worked really hard and I think that I don't want to ridicule a guy who spent his life well you know he had some private sector but yeah there's two there's two markets and look at this first brands I mean you know when you look at it the the liabilities if you look at catch perplex whatever the liabilities are between like 10 billion and 50 billion who the heck knows but they were anko wipers okay uh auto light spark plugs these are big Walmarts we don't have them heard from Walmart but you want to know what's that's the American way for the consumer because that consumer is trying to keep their car running.
How do you think about though the AI boom in the in the idea that we're now getting into we talked about vendor financing last week, you know, when Nvidia does this sort of massive deal with open AI and I don't know if you saw Bill Gurley actually out on online over the weekend saying this is when you get into a situation where it gets more complicated.
Who was going to go against Gurley? He's terrific. And what I would say is this, that was the one that really disappointed me because as long as you don't have vendor financing, it's very hard to be like Nordale. I have a piece this weekend for clubs and it's very hard to have Lucent, very hard to have Nortell, which ended up having very bad orders because it was all done with cash.
This is the first one that's done with debt and I think that they're going to continue to make contracts and continue. Look, this thing is open. People think it's worth a trillion, but what does that mean? Worth a trillion? Worth a trillion? I mean, and therefore they can be able to raise 500 billion.
I mean, you need that Oracle, right? Right. We don't know how much Oracle is going to be. They're they're on the hook from OpenAI. Now, I don't agree that the hundred billion over time that Jensen Wong from Nvidia is giving to OpenAI is nec necessarily a a quid proquo. I think that they've made it very clear that that's not, but I'm sure this the skeptical people are going to say it is.
Well, I just think the larger question is none of these guys are really making money right now. Now, part of that is because they continue to grow and they continue to keep investing in the business. Maybe if they stop none of these none of the large language models are actually making money. And so
here you have the situation where but they're the ones who effectively are ordering the chips. They're the ones who need the data centers. They're the ones who need the energy. All of these and they're making massive commitments without the cash on the other end. Totally true. Now like you know Sam W said there's a lot of demand right but I had uh I had the Waka Wen Dato okay he's the CEO of J&J they have the best cancer franchise and it's Douma and they're doing nothing with with these big guys why because the big guys are saying they're going to cure cancer but why don't they work with the companies that are trying to cure cancer I find a lot of these companies are so busy building out
right that maybe they haven't even figured out what to do with it now the new generation okay the Vera Rubin is got reasoning and reasoning is the real threat to us. Look at that Doug McMillan piece that we saw this weekend about Walmart. He says everybody's job's going to change. Whose job's changing so far?
I mean, all I know is that yes, we could all be holograms, but I was called a hologram in 2012 by Elon Musk, and I'm not a hologram. But we could easily um some people could be replaced by people who are not people because this news business doesn't make any money. Have you noticed that? Are you conversant with that?
Versant in that case that in converse I didn't say anything about versent what are you crazy uh very quickly Edard Denny had a piece out this morning and it reminded me of your book just because look this looks like the roaring 20s and things have been great since 2020 really overall but your book is about how to make money in any market what happens if if that changes
well I think rules still stand absolutely and remember half of of what I do is supposed to be index fund we do have a roaring 20 and then a crash which I don't think so because I can distinguish until that what gurly was saying with the vendor pseudo vendor financing. I still believe that it's really possible for people to ride through a crash.
It was possible to ride through 2000. It was possible to ride through 2008 provided you didn't trade out. And that's where Warren was so right. Remember he said if you had held you did fine. Now people who needed their money in 2010 2011 they got hurt. And you know better than anyone because the book was so good.
Oh thank you. The book was really good, man. I bet you 29's gonna be fabulous. Well, we're we're trying. Give me a villain. Give me a villain. A villain? Yeah. Come on. Oh, there's so I mean there's so many villains, but but nobody goes to jail in 29 either. Isn't it something? How about Fischer? How'd he look?
I mean, Fiser, we're talking about Irving Fiser, the great professor. I mean, he didn't look so smart in the No. Professor. Professor. Not so smart. You guys are smart. I love his show. I watch it every morning. Okay. Well, we watch every But I think you guys are sensational and it is a delight to be here
and we love having you. I want you to come obviously on uh Ned Money. You'll be there. I will give you a good chunk of time because you deserve it. You know, my wife watches the show and she says, you know, I love these guys. She loves both of She thinks you guys are the absolute greatest. I don't like how much she likes you.
Thank you, Jim. I know. She likes your wife. I love your wife. Thank you, Lisa. Great. Thank you, Jenn. It's called How to Make Money in Any Market. Show it on the screen, folks. Booyah. Right there. Isn't it tough to still be promotional? Aren't you embarrassed a little? No. Go on Amazon right now and buy the book, folks. Love you guys. Thank you. Love you.
Comments 0