저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 금과 유사한 특성을 가져 대체 통화이자 안전자산으로 성장할 수 있으며, 향후 1년 내 금보다 높은 수익을 낼 가능성이 크다는 낙관론. 비트코인 특성 분석: 암호화와 분산원장 기술이 가치 저장 기능을 가지며, 산업적 활용도도 있다고 주장. 공급 측면: 향후 2~3년 내 비트코인 신규 채굴 속도가 금 채굴보다 느려져 금보다 희소한 자산이 된다고 예상. 금-달러 비율 근거: 1900년 약 450%, 1932년·1973년·현재 모두 약 460%로 통화량 대비 금 비율이 안정적이었다고 설명. 이를 근거로 20년 뒤 금 가격 예측 가능. 시장 규모 계산: 시장에 약 7.5조 달러 규모의 금이 있어 금 규모가 유통 통화보다 훨씬 크며, 비트코인이 대체 통화의 5%를 차지하면 코인당 2만5천~5만 달러 수준이 가능하다고 추정. 투자 전략 및 출연자 견해: 출연자 Karen은 여러 암호화폐 바구니에 소액 투자 중이며 승자를 알 수 없다고 언급하고, 디지털 통화 시장에는 장기적으로 가치가 있다고 봄. Tom Lee는 비트코인이 과소 보유된 자산으로 기관 투자 유입 잠재력이 크다고 보며, CBOE와 CFTC의 옵션·선물 거래 개시를 촉매로 제시. 향후 1년 내 미국 주식보다 비트코인 성과가 낫다고 주장. 리스크: 언급된 가격 시나리오는 가정에 기반하며 변동성 및 규제 리스크는 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
bitcoin will be a safe haven I mean how do you wait Bitcoin with gold yeah so we did a study and publish it in early July you know sort of framework to think about Bitcoin it has a lot of characteristics that are very similar to gold and I think it will ultimately make it really attractive as an alternate currency you know it's a good store value the encryption essentially and the distributed ledger not only sort of act as a it has a wave of protection but it actually has an industrial use you know it's essentially can be replacing it a traditional payment platform and I think that the supply of Bitcoin is starting to slow in effect within the next two or three years number of coins discovered or mined or rewarded will actually be slower than the amount of gold discovered so Bitcoin will actually be a rarer unit than gold so I was following you the whole way until the very end because you're making the comparison to Bitcoin to an actual currency how it's being used what your purpose is for and then you go to gold I mean gold is never used as a currency anyway go loves back the US dollar so yeah I kind of why why would we even make that comparison is a great question so we went off the gold standard in 70s right and we we said okay well let the ratio of gold to dollar supply starting in 1900 it was roughly 450 percent in 1932 which is the last year that citizens could own gold they had to actually turn it returned to the Treasury it was roughly four hundred sixty percent in 1973 and it's four hundred sixty percent today the supply of dollars versus goals actually been incredibly stable over time there's periods where it rises and falls but it's a good rule of thumb that the it's it's going to be roughly four to fifty percent so it means you can actually forecast gold 20 years from now assuming what you know what money supply would do there's stuff in have seven half trillion dollars with a gold out there so gol Dwarfs the amount of currency in circulation and if bit point Bitcoin captures five percent of that alternative currency it's you know fifty twenty-five to fifty thousand a share per unit sorry per coin right Karen you've been investing in Bitcoin what's right what's your route now the several cryptocurrency yes because I do really believe that similar to the internet stocks taking off in the late 90s that there will be winners in the cryptocurrency space I believe that they will be cryptocurrency will be adopted as used and used around the world that's what drives the value there I don't know which one so I have a basket I have to say DK has done all of the trading around Brian Kelly and he's an extraordinary job I don't know which one is going to be the winner maybe Bitcoin maybe another coin I don't know but I do believe that that digital currency space is worth having for me it's a tiny investment but I see it could go to zero could be worth multiple the forced to choose or would you rather in our parlance gold or Bitcoin every Bitcoin yes I think Bitcoin is a under owned asset with potential for huge institutional sponsorship coming Bitcoin are a bath of the US stocks between now and your end it's easily Bitcoin do you think Bitcoin will be the best performing assets or asset class if we could even call it that from now to urine yeah yes and I think it's because there's catalyst you know institutions have to directly buy the coin today very broker but the both the CBOE and the CFTC have opened up options and futures trading so I think it's going to grow on and holding you
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