You're not going to get value moving until the Fed drops rates, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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PCE 물가가 예상보다 다소 높게 나올 수 있으나 전망치 흐름은 양호하다고 봄. 유가·임대료 둔화로 인플레 개선 추세 유지, 다음 FOMC에서 금리인하 가능성 시사. 연준 기준금리는 적정 수준(3.5~4%)보다 높아 점진적 인하가 바람직하다고 주장. 최근 성장주→가치주, 대형주→소형주 로테이션은 금리인하 기대에 따른 흐름이며 기술주는 반등 여지 있다고 봄.

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01. all right joining us right now to talk markets ahead of the fed's favored pce inflation numbers that we get in just over an hour's time is J JY seagull he is Professor ameritus of finance of he's also the chief Economist at Wisdom Tree and uh Jeremy what are you anticipating what are you expecting from this number today I actually expect that the year-over-year is going to be a little hotter than in expectations and I'll tell you because we already got the uh first quarter uh pce consumption so if you kind of work backwards from the data we got yesterday uh they did revise it upward it'll be a little bit hotter however forward looking I I think inflation looks very very good uh the month-over-month numbers might be on target uh we might be one tenth higher on the other so I don't think it changes The Narrative of it all that uh you know JP's going to te up uh a rate cut for the September meeting um uh after after this next one yeah next week when the FED meets again that's the even if it's hotter you don't think that that will make his roric or what he says any more hawkish no no I don't I I actually don't think so because again forward-looking numbers I mean we really take a look at commodity prices even oil prices have come down those are very sensitive postive prices um so what home prices rental prices we're beginning to get uh the the rental price index which we know is lagged in the official data we we we we getting to see that really come in at a much lower rate so uh you know and that's all great news uh so I I think that that won't change L now he's not going to promise anything of course he said if Trends continue on the direction that we see uh you know uh we would be amenable to to easing Financial conditions uh at our next meeting and it's certainly he's not even commit how much it's going to be but I I think that's definitely what's going to be the setup next week and and you think the FED should be cutting right now I I mean if it were up to me looking forward they should be I mean I think ultimately the FED funds rate should be three and a half to four now I'm not saying get there tomorrow or get there by the end of of the year but we're we're 5.33 now so we're you know we're about 200 basis points almost 200 basis points above that neutral rate um W which actually the FED actually thinks the neutral rate is even lower than that I think it's a bit higher but I think we should really be moving towards that direction when we look at the trends in the economy I mean GDP is holding up but at a moderate race uh so the labor market is no longer a tightness uh that they have to be concerned about and and uh basically it's forward inflation and that looks very very good to me coming uh from the data that I research let's take a look at what we've seen in the markets there have been some big rotations over the last several weeks and even last several months one of them is this move towards small small caps away from the big caps the other is this move towards value over growth yeah and actually you both of them are tied together quite uh quite strongly I mean we had uh up until about two and a half weeks ago we had a a month period of one of the strongest growth pushes relative to value that I've ever seen and then in uh in just two weeks pop it's gone it's sort of easy come easy go but if you take a look at the long-term trends actually growth versus value is back to that Trend before we had that pop bubble but you know as as I said many weeks ago you're not going to get value moving until the FED drops rates and more and more when you see that you know rate drops are in the cards for the FED I think that that narrative could very well continue now I think there might be a little bit of a a bounceback for Tech because it certainly has taken a big pounding recently uh but you do see a narrative change you even see a narrative change about is AI as big as we thought it was I mean that feeds into the other uh situation so uh you know this really could be a watershed in terms of uh a trend that we've seen for many many months if not many years of uh growth beating value