저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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AMD가 뉴욕 애널리스트 데이에서 2027~2030년 TAM $1T 전망과 3~5년 매출 35% CAGR, 영업이익률 35%, EPS $20+ 등 장기 목표를 제시해 주가가 9% 급등. 목표 달성은 OpenAI와의 계약 이행에 달려 있다고 지적. Cramer는 실행 여부를 지켜봐야 하지만 CEO에게 신뢰를 주며 현 수준에서도 매수 가능하다고 언급. 마이크론은 HBM 호조로 내년 실적 서프라이즈 기대.
다듬은 글
Jim Cramer의 CNBC 방송 원문을 한국어로 옮기면서 음성인식 오류를 바로잡고, 화자의 1인칭 구어체는 살려 다듬었습니다.
Jim Cramer 원문은 영어 자막이라 제목과 화자가 영어로 되어 있습니다. 한국어 번역 요청으로 보지 않고, 요청하신 대로 영어 자막을 영어 그대로 다듬어 드리겠습니다.
Last night, AMD, the big chipmaker with that huge artificial intelligence exposure, held an important analyst meeting right here in New York City. You never know what you're going to get from these analyst events. Sometimes there's news fest, sometimes there's a big deal. This one was a huge deal, which is why AMD stock shot up 9% today.
Now, AMD's already had a phenomenal run, with the stock catching fire last month when they announced a massive deal with OpenAI. They're selling OpenAI 6 gigawatts' worth of GPUs as part of a multi-year agreement. We don't have specific numbers, but management says the deal will be worth tens of billions of dollars in revenue.
In less than four weeks after the announcement, the stock shot up 62%, falling to a new all-time high of $267 and change. Big. After that, though, AMD pulled back hard as the entire market seemed to turn against the AI data center space. Even when the company reported a strong quarter last week, it barely got credit for it. The stock gained 2.5% in response last Wednesday, but still finished the week deeply in the red. Still, going into last night's analyst meeting, AMD was up nearly 100% year-to-date. So it felt like the onus was on management to justify this colossal move. And you know what they did.
CEO Lisa Su laid out how far AMD has come in recent years, taking share in both CPUs, which is really from Intel for the PC, and GPUs for the data center, and yes, that is share from Nvidia. Overall, the company's data center revenue has gone from $2 billion in 2020 to more than $16 billion this year, now accounting for nearly half of the business. At the same time, AMD has had big success in its PC, gaming, and embedded systems businesses, including chips for cars and surgical robots. Smaller, but important.
Of course, this is very much a "what have you done for me lately" market. So let's focus on what AMD had to say about the future.
Management rolled out what it calls the four pillars of its strategy going forward. They want to extend their compute technology leadership, expand their data center leadership, open up software platforms and developer enablement, and power AI everywhere.
On the technology leadership front, AMD talked about its positions in CPUs and GPUs, but also mentioned it has gotten into all sorts of auxiliary products like networking, interconnects, and advanced packaging. I think they made a very good case for why AMD should be considered a technical leader among the universe of semiconductor companies that are not named Nvidia.
In terms of the data center, AMD said it expects the total addressable market, called TAM, to expand at a 40% compound annual clip, growing from $200 billion this year to north of $1 trillion in 2030. They're talking about reaching 10% market share in AI semiconductors and networking. That would be a staggering amount of business. Keep in mind, this is the one chipmaker that comes close to rivaling Nvidia, so 10% doesn't sound all that crazy to me.
In terms of software, AMD is still playing catch-up, which is why it has made a number of acquisitions in recent years. As for powering AI everywhere, they're talking about AI PCs and gaming, plus things like robots. Management says they have a full ecosystem that covers all these capabilities.
While all of that is impressive, the biggest news last night was AMD's new long-term financial targets. They blew my mind. They were much higher than anybody was expecting, and that's really what sent the stock into the stratosphere today.
The targets first. AMD offered some remarkable growth targets for the next three to five years. They say data center AI revenue will rise at an 80%-plus compound annual growth rate, with the total data center business growing at a 60% clip. Overall, AMD expects its revenue to rise at a 35% compound annual growth rate over the next three to five years. There are not many companies with anywhere near that.
At the same time, management had some great things to say about profitability. AMD expects its gross margins to rise from 54% this year to 55% to 58% over the next three to five years. Again, staggeringly good. They see their operating margin rising from 24% this year to 35% in three to five years. Then AMD projects it can earn more than $20 per share within that same timeframe. Given that they're expected to earn less than $4 per share this year, that's going to be stunning growth. Of course, it's not just that AMD rolled out very bullish targets. It's that the targets seem very credible.
Take that trillion-dollar TAM figure for the data center. It seems crazy at first glance. But as Ben Reitzes of the Melius research firm points out, AMD was the first company to issue what he saw as a cartoonish forecast for the data center back in 2023, when it projected the TAM for AI semis and network equipment would be worth $400 billion by 2027. I remember when she made that projection. I think a lot of people laughed, but now it's widely believed that forecast was way too low. Reitzes thinks AMD's $1 trillion forecast for 2030 may also end up being too low. I think you could be right.
But the numbers AMD presented last night made you almost have to buy the stock, especially if you're running a hedge fund. I'm not at all surprised to see AMD soaring today, because the numbers were so good that analysts were forced to raise their estimates significantly, which translates into higher price targets, which translates into higher stock prices.
Still, can AMD stock keep running? For the past couple of weeks, I've noticed a shift in Wall Street sentiment. Investors have gotten more discriminating when it comes to AI stocks, with more focus on who actually has the ability to deliver on the grand promises, which means making money.
That brings me back to AMD's financial projections. These numbers are, to some degree, an extension of the OpenAI partnership the company announced a month ago. At the same time, we didn't have many specifics about what this would mean for AMD's sales. Now we kind of do, along with some bullish new information on margins and profits. But all these long-term targets are contingent on AMD doing a lot of business with OpenAI starting next year.
If you believe OpenAI will honor all of the commitments it has made, or can honor them, the numbers are doable. If you don't believe it, the numbers become very stretched goals. Here's the bottom line. Going forward, the story of AMD is all about execution. The stock has already roared in anticipation of phenomenal growth in the data center. Now AMD needs to actually deliver. I think Lisa Su and her team deserve the benefit of the doubt because historically they've done a great job, but it's still something we need to keep an eye on. Given her multiple years of success at AMD, I am more than comfortable telling you that even up here, you can buy her stock.
Let's take some calls. Let's go to Mark in Nevada. Mark, hey, Jim. Booya. Booyah. Mark, what's going on? Calling about Micron today. I've seen a lot of solid record of positive earnings and surprises, good momentum behind the AI trend. I think they've got a good business model, and I got in at a good price point. I'm just wondering about fresh highs. Where do you think this is going, and how do you think Micron's going to end up in the future?
All right, Mark, great question. Micron does have this one business called high-bandwidth memory, which is data center, and it is on fire. Sanjay Mehrotra just said that could happen. I'm not saying there's no stopping Micron. I am saying that Micron right now is on a high run rate that is going to produce earnings for at least the next year that are going to surprise people. So I think you've got a good one. I think AMD stock could keep going higher if it executes well, and I'm willing to give Lisa Su the benefit of the doubt that she can deliver on those goals.
Much more money on the way. Ahead, we could sit down with Databricks, the software provider that has been riding the AI wave to new heights, and get a read on what's next for the private player with the company CEO. Then, is there ever a right time to sell a stock you own? I'm breaking down my thought process around exiting a winning position so you can stay ahead of the market. And of course, all your calls. Happy hour. Tonight's edition, Lightning Round, stand by.
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