저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 대형주 고밸류에이션과 수익성 의문으로 AI 트레이드가 주춤하고, 소재·금융·산업재·헬스케어로의 순환매가 이번엔 이전보다 지속성이 있을 수 있다고 봄. 오라클 데이터센터 지연은 과잉 자본지출(capex) 우려를 키움. 연준 파월 발언은 인플레 기대 통제 측면에서 긍정적으로 평가하며 2026년이 생각보다 나을 수 있다고 언급. 다만 셧다운 리스크(약 30%)와 관세 판결 변수는 남아 있음.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Seagull. He's also chief economist for Wisdom Tree. It's good to have you back. Of course, I'm wondering what you make of what's been happening in the market. You see it from Oracle, you see it from Broadcom, and frankly, you see it from a lot of other stocks. This AI trade, at least for the moment, seems a little out of favor.
Yeah. And and you know, when you sell for 30 times earnings or 40 times earnings, nothing can go wrong. uh and when a few of the narratives wobble uh as they are uh that puts that caution into them. By the way, I think those stocks are still up pretty healthily for the year, but for the first time in a while, you know, we've often talked about the rotation, you know, and then and then it disappears a few weeks later.
Uh this rotation, I think, might have more legs than than some of the ones that we've seen earlier this year. Boy, it's interesting that you say that. Others are as well. You know, Wolf Research today is the broadening finally happening. They would wonder that maybe it is. If you look at the sector winners that have taken to the forefront since the Fed decision, materials are up 4% and financials are up three, a record high today.
Industrial's up two, a record high today. Healthc care's done quite well. This certainly seems to be at least a trend change of some sort. Uh well, you can't say for sure because there's been so many head fakes in the past, but as I said, this thing this one has more legs in the sense that there are more things that are happening that throw doubt on how fast or how profitable uh all the AI AI buildout is going to be.
And you know what's going on Oracle these delays part of it is because expenses are going so high for building some of these data centers and that of course adds to the burden of how do you get profitability out of them. On the other side some people say hey you know once if they're delayed maybe uh uh that will prevent an overbuilding of them.
So you can see a little bit of a maybe little silver lining there, but I think it adds more questions than answers in terms of the ultimate profitability of AI. Yeah. What what is your big takeaway from this Oracle story today, which is undoubtedly unnerve the market at least a little bit? Well, I think it started, you know, when uh you know the big uh all the capital expenditures that run into the hundreds of billions or or trillions.
uh you know academics have been doing research on how well do firms ultimately do that have high amounts of capital expenditures and Scott the the results are not good. Uh I had a chapter in my book uh called capital pigs in the sense that uh those that expend more relative to their income on capital overexpand and ultimately suffer poor returns and lower profits.
Now, I'm not saying that that's necessarily going to happen to AI or certainly all the AI, but that narrative has to come in mind and there is research on saying too much capital expenditures is going to be bad for your stock. What do you make of the idea that Michael Hartnett of Bank of America puts forth today that really what we're witnessing in the market may in fact be a relative trend change that what was a K-shaped economy being in his words all the rage in 2025 now we're frontr running what he suggests could be a run it hot economy in 26 and we are thus rotating into a lot of areas that would take advantage of that kind of trade.
Are you a believer in that? Well, I you know I was actually quite encouraged by you know the Fed uh response. Jay Powell uh he seemed more calm about inflation than I than I've seen in a long time. Uh in terms of saying yeah mostly effective tariffs should be washed out. It's a it's a one-time increase.
Uh he was saying he said indicators of inflationary expectation are more under control. Yes, it was a close decision, but you know, I I was actually quite im impressed by that. Uh, now there's two bumps that we have. We have the bump of the Supreme Court tariff announcement. What kind of what is that going to be and what you know what what is that going to make?
And then, of course, as we know, we have another fiscal cliff at the end of uh of January. Um, and I think the betting markets actually say a 30% that there's going to be another shutdown. No one wants that. Um, I mean that could have subtracted two percentage points from GDP in the fourth quarter and it could even be worse if it happens.
I think everyone wants to avoid it. But after that, if we can get past those two, there's the headwinds of the, you know, the tax refunds, the tax bill, uh, the effect of the tariffs of basically having gone through the system and digested better than people had thought. That actually marks a better 2026 than certainly I thought we might have, let's say, at the at the middle of this
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