저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 블랙록 CEO 래리 핑크 등의 발언을 인용해 미국 경기침체 가능성과 관세 정책 불확실성을 강조한다. 진행자는 비트코인이 7만4천 달러 부근까지 하락했다며 6만5천 달러까지 추가 하락 가능성을 언급하고, 변동성을 기회로 보며 장기 보유(물타기) 전략을 권한다. 또한 정부·중앙은행의 비트코인 매수 가능성과 공급 제약을 근거로 장기 강세론을 펼친다. 제목의 '경고'와 달리 결론은 매수 측에 가깝다.
다듬은 글
Are we headed for a recession? Are we in a recession? I you know, most CEOs I talked to would say we are probably in a recession right now. Right now? Right now. Bitcoin's price just formed a death cross. Bitcoin's death cross is here. This is serious. Things have changed. BlackRock is now calling for a recession.
The big question is, knowing that things have changed, what comes next? Is now a time to sell and buy back lower? Comment your thoughts below. I do want to be clear, there is hope. Most people aren't considering the full scope of what's about to happen. You need to watch today's whole video. I have a very special video clip to play you at the end.
If you have more time than money, then the volatility of Bitcoin is a gift to you. But first of all, so much has changed, let me update you on the current state of the US and global economy. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says all the signs are there that the US is sinking into a deep recession. Listen to this.
A couple airline CEOs told me one CEO specifically said, you know, the airline industry is a is is like a is a is in the proverbial bird in a in a coal mine, canary in the coal mine. And it it it I was told that the canary is sick. And all of this, I would imagine now with the market setback, is going to freeze more and more consumption.
And I think we're going to start seeing that really quickly. So, there's a I you know, I and I so, I do believe in the in the coming months we're going to continue we're going to see more evidence of of a slowdown in this economy. Even CNBC's Joe Kernen, a proud and vocal Trump supporter, says that there is room for critique the way these tariffs are being executed.
Here he confronts Peter Navarro, Trump's senior trade advisor. I think they're much bigger than than most people thought. And and I think if from policy institutes on both sides of the aisle, the the methodology that was used is been universally derided as being non-serious. I don't know whether you know exactly that who came up with the formula, but it allowed you to to at least characterize most of these countries as being their tariffs well above the reality of the situation, so that when you put say that we're going to do half on them, it was much higher than anyone anticipated.
And I think you'd have to concede that that this was not the market reaction you were looking for. There's a way of maybe incrementally trying to accomplish some of the things that the president wants to do in a reasonable serious way, and this just almost across the board has caused what you're seeing in the stock market and a lot of head scratching and head shaking on whether anyone really knows what what they're doing in this case, Peter.
All right, well, let's let's acknowledge that. No, I can't. Now, what's interesting is the market actually popped earlier today with some false reports that Trump would enact a 90-day grace period for further negotiations and clarity. The White House quickly put these rumors to rest, however, quelling any such thought saying, "No olive branch to any country like that has been extended." Spoke to Caroline Leavitt, the White House press secretary on the phone just a short time ago, and she tells me it is {quote} "fake news" that the White House is considering a 90-day pause.
So, the White House pouring cold water on this idea, wherever it came from, that they're considering a 90-day pause on tariffs saying that the president is committed to his tariff regime, and any reports that he's considering a 90-day pause are {quote} "fake news." And then even further trade policy hawkishness, Peter Navarro, speaking for the White House, says other countries rescinding all tariffs to zero wouldn't even be close to enough for what they're looking for.
Every country needs to change major things about the way they deal with imports in the USA. Listen to this. You tell me if this makes sense. I think the thing we're all trying to understand is then if there are going to be negotiations and you're saying zero is not enough, what is enough? Zero is a small first start, okay?
Okay, so but then what what is enough? And and let me ask you but related to that. answer that question. Let me answer. Let's take them one at a time. We have plenty of time. So, what is enough? Okay, you take any given country, they're like fingerprints. They all cheat us in a different way. So, here are the things they cheat us on.
Some of them engage in currency manipulation. Some of them have a hefty VAT tax. All of them dump into our markets. All of them engage in heavy export subsidies and government subsidies. All of them put up these phony technical and phytosanitary barriers to our ag products and our autos and everything in between.
Many of them steal our intellectual property. A lot of them runs sweatshop labor, including forced child labor. They have pollution havens. So, when you say to me, Ann, "What do we want from them?" We want fairness. We don't want them to kill American workers by inundating us with this non-tariff cheating.
And it would be really refreshing to have the media talk more about that. This zero tariff thing it's it's it's a misdirection. No, it's a misdirection. It's the non-tariff barriers. is that there's a lot there's going to be a a lot bigger challenge in terms of actually then getting to to yes, if you will, or finding the off-ramp where a deal is made, given that we're not just talking about getting to zero, we're talking about getting all sorts of other policies inside each of these countries changed.
So, here's the thing. A man-made bear market and possible recession is being created by the White House right now. Trump is playing chicken with the world all at once. Bitcoin is holding up rather strong at this point, even though earlier today it hit another local low of about $74,000. Bitcoin's price could hit $65,000 before everything is said and done, past resistance turns into new support, and the thing you have to remember is Trump could turn this around and cause a massive relief rally at any point.
I do think that Trump will want to make sure that the economy is doing well by the 2026 midterms. So, I suspect that if you can weather this storm, keep adding to your long-term huddle position, you will come out of all of this on top. And understand, this volatility that we're seeing is opportunity.
Michael Saylor says it best. Volatility was a gift to the faithful. It scares away the tourist. It scares away the lazy. It scares away the people that are already conventionally rich that have all the money. If you're a 20-something or a 30-something and you're willing to do the work, if you're willing to spend 100 hours or 200 hours, if you have more time than money, then the volatility of Bitcoin is a gift to you.
If you have more money than time and you're arrogant and egotistical and you just pick the obvious, then if the volatility goes away, you buy Bitcoin. If people if people in the rest of the world knew what I know and they understood and they agreed with me, Bitcoin would go to $10 million tomorrow. And if Bitcoin went to $10 million tomorrow, I want you to think about how you would feel because you would lose 20 years of stacking opportunity during which you get to buy at less than $10 million.
So, the difference between $10 million and $100,000, that's what you give up if the volatility goes away and people start to agree with you. So, even though the market is dipping this month and a recession is looming and Trump is being very harsh on its global trade policy, understand this is something we show you almost on a daily basis.
We're in an era of great change right now. A great reset is happening that is benefiting and will continue to keep directly benefiting Bitcoin and crypto. If you follow our channel regularly, you understand that there are fundamental reasons to be long-term bullish on Bitcoin and crypto like we've never seen before.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan explains. I had Arthur Hayes on my show last week and he came he came on and said that he thinks that the strategic Bitcoin reserve is overblown and that governments and central banks aren't going to be buying Bitcoin in relation to gold. Um what are your thoughts on that? Well, I don't think he's right.
Uh and I don't think he's right for that 90/10 reason. Yeah. Which is central banks are not in the business of making bets. And I agree they'll probably buy more gold than Bitcoin. That's probably true. But that doesn't mean they won't buy any Bitcoin, right? I think the number of countries that own Bitcoin will at least double.
I think the game theory of getting in first is is a foot, as you mentioned. How do you know we're not doing it? And even if it's just at this 90/10 ratio, that means they have to buy a very lot of Bitcoin, right? Just to get up to neutral. So, um he's right that they'll probably buy more gold, but the impact will be much bigger on Bitcoin cuz we're in a supply constrained situation, right?
We only create 165,000 Bitcoin a year. If governments buy half a million Bitcoin, that's 3x supply, right? You know, that means the price goes up unless people are willing to sell. And that's just one source of demand. Do you think that we are still on the traditional crypto four-year cycle? Um no, but from a bullish perspective.
I sort of think, you know, these these cycles start cuz there's a huge catalyst that brings new capital into the market, and this one started, for what it's worth, almost exactly at the day Grayscale won its lawsuit about a Bitcoin ETF. If you go back to when the bull market started, that was March of 2023 was when they won their lawsuit.
And that meant institutional investors were coming into this market, market rips. I I think we had another one of those events, like another one of those tectonic four-year cycle starting events with the Trump election. Finally, I want to leave you with this. I made this video back in 2018. This was one of my first videos.
Bitcoin was $6,500, Ethereum was $230. The outlook for both of these assets and all crypto assets seemed pretty bleak. People called me crazy back then. A lot of you subscribed to us back then. A lot of you are doing well now. If you bought Bitcoin and crypto at this time, you probably changed your life.
I think we're in a very similar situation today. Now, you let me know in the comments if you agree, but the sentiment I expressed in this clip, I think we're in a very similar situation today. See you tomorrow. All right. Should I buy Bitcoin? Let me tell you. Bitcoin is just getting started. And I get it.
You know, it's easy to think that because Bitcoin rallied up to 20K, that it's not going to do that again, you know. Yeah. You'd probably say to yourself, "Hey, I wish I got in at 1K." But the thing is, that's what everybody thinks. In a year or two from now, people are going to think back to "Hey, I wish I would have got Bitcoin at 6K." Or in a couple years from now, people are going to say "I wish I would have got Bitcoin at 20K." Right?
Think about this. Cuz the fact is that the cryptocurrency space is still very young. You know, we're still early. We're still in the early years. You know, we're early adopters. And I think over the next 5 to 10 years, as adoption starts to happen, we're going to see waves of new people coming into the space.
You know, 2017 we saw a wave, but there's going to be many more waves after that. Wave after wave. And with each new wave comes new money.
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