저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
은행 2분기 실적 발표를 정리한 방송이다. 결론: JP모건은 좋지만 대단하지 않고, 골드만삭스는 실적 호조로 주가가 오르고 있다. JP모건: 주요 은행 실적은 예상치를 상회했으며, 제이미 다이먼은 미국 소비자 건강과 고용·임금 상승을 근거로 긍정적 모멘텀을 말했다. 주가는 순이자마진(NIM) 전망을 5억 달러 낮춘 점 때문에 하락했다. 효율성 비율은 양호했으나 크라메는 '총알을 쏘아 올릴 정도(shoot the lights out)는 아니다'라고 평가했다. 소비자 부문 실적은 약 30억 달러로 13.7억 달러보다 개선됐다. JP모건 가이던스: 금리인하 횟수에 따라 순이자수익 가이던스가 달라진다. 1회 인하 시 약 575억 달러, 그 이상이면 더 낮아진다고 설명했다. JP모건 기타: 주식 관련 수익과 IB 수익은 기대에 못 미쳤다. 크라메는 씨티그룹의 멕시코·동남아 사업을 언급하며 JP모건에는 '괜찮다'는 입장이다. 골드만삭스: 주가는 장 초반 약 2% 상승했고, 사모펀드 투자 평가이익 7.41억 달러가 실적을 뒷받침했다. 크라메는 이 이익은 반복적이지 않으니 투자자는 이를 높게 평가하면 안 된다고 봤다. 골드만 수익 구조: 반복적 수익 비중이 63~65%로 높아졌고, 전년 같은 시기 50% 미만에서 개선됐다. 이에 따라 PER 적용이 가능해졌다고 평가했다. 애플 카드: 골드만이 애플 카드 출시(하반기, 약 1억 명 고객 가능성)에 대비돼 있다고 말했다. 크라메는 준비가 되어 있다고 믿지만 세부사항은 아직 받지 못했다고 밝혔다. 리스크: 애플 카드 관련 비용 증가와 마커스 등 플랫폼 투자 비용이 크다. 크라메는 이것이 '내가 본 가장 큰 타격일 수 있다'고 언급했다. 결론적으로 카드 사업은 크지만 수익은 올해가 아니라고 말했다.
다듬은 글
on bank earnings today JPMorgan Chase Goldman Sachs Wells Fargo all beat forecasts with their results as for JP Morgan Jamie Dimon says quote we continue to see positive momentum with the US consumer healthy confidence levels solid job creation rising wages which are reflected in our consumer and community banking results guys but obviously the reason stock is down in part is that they lower their nim forecast by five hundred million dollars look sometimes you look at a quarter and you say please please give me a highlight look the efficiency ratio was good but when I look at what the other banks have done I understand that JP Morgan is good it's just not to shoot the lights out and I don't think when I look line by line I mean you know you've got some good numbers here you have the consumer mercury banking which is this line about the theme I'm just the consumer itself a 30 20 billion versus 13.7 these guys are cleaning money how about that it's just they're not coining money because as I like it because of net interest margin I am fine with it I mean David do you think I should be more excited than fine with it no no more excited than fine I mean the conference call has begun and as you might have expected new CFO by the way yes Zack yes Marion Lake yes you know first quarter our guidance was 58 billion they're talking here about net interest income and net interest margin again and some pressure on the long end at that point the priority persisted in fact increase and so we pulled the impact along and through in terms of our outlook and then the short end the range of outcomes are obviously quite broad this is a CFO again and so we thought about a range of outcomes of one to three rate cuts and so you can think about if it's one cut fifty seven and a half billion if it's more you get the point row just keeps going down from 58 billion depending on how many rate cuts are gonna get which we know but many would think Jim the bank stocks have already reacted 111 today I do know that wasn't so great obviously look this is one where the conference call has always mattered the most so I feel like it sometimes I talked to David about this is when I am most naked at this very single moment but JPMorgan was not something we're gonna see a lot of holds device no right to your broader point thick we usually remember we just talked about Fick all the time we're in nothing nothing to cry about equities down 12 of course trading revenue IB revenue though below expectation yes and look again I don't want that's one of these things where you look at it and you said yourself that wasn't as good as sit again I think a fair comparison but then again cities not as neighbor to the to the our rates because cities back being very international if you look at the first page of the city blocks to the second page of the city they talk about Mexico Mexico then there's Southeast Asia a lot good lot good and so I'm I'm there for them and JP Morgan I'm okay I'm okay I'm no it's it's no JB Hunt the Goldman as we can see here at least there's a like 26 minutes before we get started with trading is going to be up but this morning perhaps as much as almost 2 percent they had some significant equity gains I think thanks 741 million in games that's heart from their private equity ownership of companies that went public and they clearly seem to have been marking them fairly conservative yes and so you mark that up that helped on the quarter that's not necessarily recurring so you're not gonna want to pay for that as an investor ie but that said everything came in either in line it would think it seemed or above at least judging from the response of the analysts who follow the company we've also got a conference call that we'll get under we're underway there very shortly I believe look at the Goldman thing but I find it I'm gonna say that it's no longer as episodic David I see as much as maybe 63 to 65 percent of the revenues being recurring last year at this time was probably less than 50 percent that was recurring 62 to 63 allows you to put a price to earnings multiple they haven't had that hey you know what's exciting about Goldman they're ready for Apple they're ready for Apple there's more than 100 million people that might get that cord yeah I'm still have yet to receive any real details absolutely true but they are all set for second half that's something I didn't know so you think the back office is prepped for that kind of demand that's been your concern on Goldman they're the credit-card they're saying that my concern I think about we're gonna hear you're gonna get comfort that my concern is misplaced and that Apple is ready and Goldman's ready that is something that you know the other firms have said to me don't be taken in I feel that this company is got a little bit better risk management than people realize obviously these are much lower rests yeah but you put to your point on something like this you've got to roll it out properly you don't get a second chance to make a first impression they're ready for a hundred mil that's what I'm saying okay where are the expenses from all this showing up because the revenues are not second half and second half and you see when you go through line by line investing in lending Investment Management and everything else I mean they are you know we've talked to David Solomon about it it's not cheap in terms of what they're spending but it could be the biggest hit that I've ever seen we're not talking just about the credit card talking about Marcus is talking about a number of the platform more and more occasion obviously because her story changes consumer but look JP Morgan's coining money but not as much as I said but as much as expected Goldman is coining money but in a less episodic more recurring way I am getting some surety on Apple now you could say you're dreaming because Apple has no idea itself how many people want the card what I like is is that they're setting it third look are they is ready is Capital One are they as ready a city no one could be but the fact is is that they can expect an expense Apple this Court is set next two quarters and by the way won't Malaysia that will get I'm sure they'll get asked a lot of questions about these various efforts on the call even though they don't figure very prominently all in the current earnings I have to tell you that the cards gonna be big and Goldman's going to make a lot of money but it's not this year you
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