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Hello, it is uh November 6, [snorts] 2025. Welcome to Bipolar Economics, studying uh mania and depressions in the stock market, where someone with a psychology degree with an interest in financial decision-making analyzes the most recent um famous short position by uh Michael Bur who was made famous after he shorted the uh mortgage bonds in the 20 uh or 2008 a financial crisis [clears throat] and he's made another bet this time posting against uh both Palunteer and Nvidia and he bought um a uh put options betting against the stock [clears throat] against Nvidia and um and Palunteer and people are questioning the logic of this in exploring his motivations.
[clears throat] Well, as you know, AI is in a bit of a mania right now. And um has the is the bubble getting ready to pop or is it still going? Uh historically stocks move up when the uh when the Federal Reserve is thinking about another rate cut and that number [clears throat] can be uh accessed on uh the Fed watch uh website.
Um, a lot of people have been talking about this bet against Nvidia and Palunteer and [snorts] uh, it seems that the um, it seems that perhaps some people think that Palunteer um, which is an AI stock, the price toearnings ratio is kind of crazy right now. So I'm going to ask chat ZVT what is the price to earnings ratio of Palunteer for the last few months for Matt as a table [clears throat] and it's thinking people are speculating whether or not this is a good idea if he's shorting based on whether maybe he thinks that AI is a bubble that's getting ready to pop or maybe uh it's the price to earnings ratio um as chat GBT for the f the last few months [clears throat] of price to earnings values for Palanteer and it's sinking Okay.
So for the past few months the price to earnings uh multiple is above 500 above 600 whatever [clears throat] and it posted very good financial results but the stock price is dropping and um people are questioning why this is. [clears throat] So, I'm going to look at this as uh whether or not Bur might be shorting based on the price to earnings ratio.
U so let's see what happened. Um, let's see what happened to Tesla during Elon Mania, as I call it, uh, when people were shorting Tesla based on its PA price to earnings ratio and whether or not they were successful. What was the price to earnings ratio of Tesla [clears throat] while people were shorting it?
And were their short positions profitable or losses. [clears throat] So while chat GBT is looking for this information, um the mood has been different over the past few months. The economy right now is really hard to figure out. Um, we're in an AI boom where AI companies are um making up most of the growth in the stock market while ordinary Americans are having trouble paying their bills and companies are announcing layoffs and no one can figure out what the economy is going to do [clears throat] based on the uh Trump tariffs which crashed the market earlier in April of 2025.
Um, so Chat GBT is mentioning very high price to earnings ratios of Tesla. And let's see what it says, whether or not people shorting it made money or losing money. Most people lost money. uh doing that. As I recall, [clears throat] uh 2020 severe losses, 38 to40 billion dollar down for shorts. [snorts] Uh 2021 was a bad year for them, too.
Uh 2022, uh people shorting at uh had profits then. And 2023, uh the shorts were back to uh losses. people shorting it in 2024 um had mixed results and people shorting it earlier this year um made some money. Uh but bottom line, shorts were largely crushed crushed during the 2020 to 2021 valuation spike when price toearnings ratios ran 950 to,300 um so on so forth.
So shorting based on price to earning ratio alone um is a looks like uh it doesn't really work during a mania [clears throat] during the internet bubble back in the late 10 late uh 1990s people shorted America online and other things and lost vast sums of money while doing so uh if they were shorting based on the priced earnings or other types of multiples.
And that did not change until uh venture capital money ran out and money losing.com's went out of business uh so on and so forth. So, there's a decent chance that Michael Bur uh could wind up getting really hurt here if uh the market continues to go up. It appears to be in a bit of a correction right now.
But shorting based on the uh price toearnings ratio during a mania uh has been a historically bad thing. So, I'm going to ask Chat GBT what other companies have had very high price to earnings [snorts] ratios. And what happened to people that shorted them? [clears throat] Okay. So, it's bringing up Amazon and Invidia uh as well and people that shorted those uh stocks during mania in [clears throat] years past.
Um they wound up getting really hurt. Okay. So now it's talking about uh short squeezes. uh people were shorting stocks during the um [clears throat] during the uh period when the Trump's tariffs were announced and there was a historic short squeeze earlier this year in which the NASDAQ 100 went up 12% in a day as people that were shorting it wound up having to buy back their positions and pushing the stock higher.
[cough] So, it says that Amazon in the late 1990s and 2000s had a PTOE ratio of um close to 3,000. Um, and people shorting it lost very large amounts of money. So it's talking about Amazon, Shopify, Zoom, Nvidia, Netflix. [clears throat] Um I will mention uh another famous short squeeze which was GameStop uh in which Melvin Capital lost uh very large amounts of money uh from it short position after uh vigilantes from Reddit um began buying it.
So, let's say what happened to Melvin Capital when it shorted GameStop. So Melvin Capital shorted GameStop. Uh their short position was well known [clears throat] and vigilantes off Red at it took them down uh by buying it all at once. Um, Melvin lost 53% of their money as GameStop went up. Um, they wound up losing several billion dollars um, as a result and went out of business.
So, there's a long history when short of short sellers not working out. Um, so, uh, we also want to look at Michael Bur's other bets. Um, he was known for saying sell when the tech bubble was, uh, taking off. Um, what happened when Michael Bur said or so I'm asking chat GBT What happened when Michael Bur tweeted sell a few years ago?
[clears throat] He came back and he said I shouldn't have said sell as I recall. Let's see if chat GBT uh finds this reference or not. So markets did not go down. Um and Bur deleted his Twitter account the next day. Um the NASDAQ entered the bull market and uh so on so forth. [clears throat] So he sort of made a fool of himself when he said that.
Um, so I'm going to ask chat dbt, how large is scan capitals uh short against tier and invidia. And this data is uh available in what's called a 13F which um is filed with the SEC So it's still thinking here and the values of the short positions for Palunteer are about 912. $12 million. The short position against Nvidia is smaller, but it's still u a pretty gutsy move given that shorting in a mania has had disastrous effects for um a lot of people in the past.
So the short position against Nvidia um he's shorting 5 million shares in of Palanteer and a million shares of Nvidia and the short position against Nvidia is 186 6 million. Um so he's betting 1.1 billion against those. Um distinct possibility that he goes bankrupt uh if the market keeps going up. Maybe he's make some money if the market keeps going down.
We will see. As always, this is not financial advice and if you think that it is, you may be delusional. Um, have a good day.
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