저자: 아인 · 한국인
요약 보기
SOXL이 1주일 내 21.3→31.5로 약 46% 급등한 뒤 28.1~31.5 구간에서 ABC 조정이 진행 중이라고 설명. 12/22까지 조정 리스크가 있으며 29.5 이탈 시 28까지 하락 가능성을 경고. 30.90 상향 돌파 시 36 상승 파동이 열린다고 봄. 1~2월 사이 41~42 도달 가능성을 제시하고, 2024년 상반기 강한 시장과 나스닥 상승을 전망.
다듬은 글
Hello, I will proceed with the SXL stock analysis today. Before we begin, I would like to inform you that from December 25th to January 6th, uploads will focus primarily on Cafe posts and membership videos. The frequency of general videos is expected to decrease somewhat, so I recommend joining the Cafe first to check market conditions through the posts.
First, SXL has risen by approximately 46% in less than a week, moving from 21.3 to 31.5. I mentioned that there is a risk of a correction around 3.5, and that such a correction is open until December 22nd. You cannot escape this correction risk until December 22nd has passed. In other words, I warned that if it breaks 29.5, it could drop to 28.
So, looking at SXL now, it is proceeding in an AB shape between 28.1 and 31.5, and a rebound is currently occurring. It has fallen about 11% from 31.5 to 28.1, and I have provided analysis to help you avoid that correction zone. Now, in this section, the timing of a breakout above the current line is crucial.
If the diagonal line is broken, the next rally could take the form of a Santa Claus rally and continue until mid-January. In other words, since the rise to $31.5 where the first rally took place is a section where the price proceeds as a first wave rise, a second wave retracement, and then a third wave rise, the first calculation is that the next selling price could be reached between $41 and $42, approximately during the first or second week of January.
The second point is that this rebound is a false rebound; the standard approach is to form an 'A' pattern, create a non-wave rebound, and then see a middle 'C' decline to renew the low. However, when observing the pattern through this decline, what we must consider is that the magnitude of the correction is too large.
Currently, the bull market has already been imprinted on global market participants, so we need to consider whether the correction will continue down to this level—that is, whether it will present a good buying opportunity in an ABC pattern. Since the previous high has already been broken, it can be seen that the mid-to-long-term upward trend of Sell has been imprinted to some extent on many institutional traders and market participants.
This is the part where strong buying pressure flowed in because the high point at this very spot was broken. This was the first upward wave that instilled the perception in everyone that this uptrend would continue for at least half a year. Therefore, creating a B-wave rebound here and then giving a C-wave decline carries some risk; it actually means that expecting a correction carries more risk.
If we finish the first 1st wave rise (a, b, c) here and apply a 3rd wave rise, we can observe a standard 5-wave impulse. Even if further correction occurs, the selling price for the first half of 2024 remains unchanged at $70, and from this point on, we can assume a short-term retracement. In other words, this is a point where the completion of the entire corrective wave is possible.
In particular, the position of 299.5—which I mentioned as a rule just before, is right here: if it breaks 29.5, it will be $28. I stated that if it breaks below the wave's low of 29.5, it will be a bearish pull. That is why whether or not it breaks below the previous low (position A) was important. Ultimately, the decline to C proceeded as it broke below position a.
Now, the point I can summarize for you through this new sentence is that if it breaks above 30.90, the rise to $36 will proceed. If I were to write the rule out loud, it would be exactly like this. Therefore, it is a zone where it is not unreasonable to proceed with a buy after confirming whether a breakout has occurred, and 30.90 is the point that represents the inflection point of the retracement wave.
If it breaks through 30.9 again, an upward wave to $36 will open. If it falls back down from this point during an upward wave, it is not an upward wave. Conversely, if it breaks through this point during a downward wave, it is not a corrective wave. Likewise, for it to be a downward wave, it cannot break above 30.9.
Therefore, if it breaks above 30.90, the corrective wave ends, and the rise to $36 proceeds through an additional upward wave by breaking through the previous high. So, for now, you should anticipate a retracement ratio until that position is broken, and then... You should consider whether it creates a final wave through inflection points.
Those contemplating short-term trading strategies, buy/sell options, and position sizing should refer to the points I just mentioned when proceeding with their trading. This upward wave is a significant one. A very strong market will unfold in the first half of 2024, and the market will be dominated by news reports of the NASDAQ's continuous rise. I will wrap up today's video here. Thank you.
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