Peter Schiff - Bitcoin Is Not A Hedge

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결론: 비트코인은 인플레이션 헤지가 아니며, 진행자는 비트코인을 가치 저장 및 화폐로서 긍정적으로 보지만 구체적 가격 전망은 제시하지 않음. 쉬프의 주장: 금은 재화이므로 인플레이션 시 가격이 함께 올라 구매력을 보존하지만, 비트코인은 재화가 아니어서 다른 재화 가격과 연동되지 않으므로 인플레이션 헤지가 아니라는 입장. 진행자의 반론: 비트코인은 재화이자 화폐의 성격을 동시에 가진다고 봄. 가치는 노동 투입과 희소성, 커뮤니티의 합의 및 신뢰에서 생긴다는 논리이며, 온라인 게임 아이템 고가 거래를 예로 듦. 쉬프 관련 일화: 쉬프가 비트코인을 받고도 키를 잃어버린 뒤 복구를 원하지 않았다는 소문을 소개함(사실 확인 안 된 일화). 외부 영상 인용: Philip Kennedy(shift versus shift)가 자문자답 형식으로 비트코인 찬반을 다룬 영상을 추천. 비트코인 공급 2100만 개로 희소성이 있다는 점과, 교환 가치가 타인의 수용 의지에 의존한다는 점을 논의함. 핵심 프레임: 자산 가치 자체는 유지되고 법정화폐(달러)가 인플레이션으로 가치가 변한다는 관점. 금·비트코인을 저축 대체 수단으로 제시하며, 1000달러 예시로 인플레이션 시 저축의 구매력 감소를 설명함. 리스크/조건: 비트코인이 금처럼 시간이 지나며 달러 대비 상승한다는 것이 전제. 명확한 가격 목표나 기간은 제시되지 않음. 출연자 전망: 비트코인에 대한 장기적 긍정 견해는 있으나 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언 없음.

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01. so Peter Shiff the avid Gold Bug and notorious Bitcoin hater he tweeted this out today inflation results in higher prices for goods since gold is a good it's price rises along with the price of other goods preserving its relative purchasing power since Bitcoin is not a good it's price does not relate to the price of other goods so it's not an inflation hedge so I would disagree though I do agree with other things that Peter Schiff says in relation to gold I would disagree on the Bitcoin part obviously because Bitcoin has the unique position of being a good and a currency I've said that before if you don't think that bitcoin is a is it good look no further than those online video games and and with those video those virtual assets that can go up into thousands of dollars sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars for a particular knife or a gun or any kind of object I didn't really understand this you know why would someone pay ten twenty hundred times what they paid for the game for an in-game item I didn't understand it till I got at the Bitcoin and I understood that what makes something valuable is the work that goes into it forgetting that that particular thing if something comes easy and if it's given away freely it devalues the worth of that thing what makes something a currency is a consensus within a community of the value of that particular thing and the trust that it'll at least retain its value or maybe even go up over time the funny thing about Peter Schiff is I read that he was actually given Bitcoin by people that wanted him to change his opinions on it and he lost his keys or something and he tried calling tech support and he just didn't want it he could have he could have had it recovered but he just didn't want to be bothered so he threw it away so this is a video that I found it's pretty funny I won't play the whole clip but the credit goes to Philip Kennedy you can find him on YouTube it's shift versus shift he's basically arguing with himself over Bitcoin it's very well edited so it's play go play a little clip of it replicate the properties of gold that's the whole selling point of feeling about that list you know hopefully we have enough time they're really hashes the site it does have a lot of gold's properties that help them succeed as well you know there's only 21 million bitcoins right you can't have any more than that so therefore there's some skiers old is scarce because it really is the garret changes is doing about it early on I mean not at the very beginning when it was like pennies but I knew about it before it was even on point there's nothing that I can do with Bitcoin other than give it to somebody else I mean that's the whole purpose of it is to give it this video value of a cryptocurrency is based on the willingness of somebody else to accept it in exchange for you know something I was saying a hundred million a hundred billion a Bitcoin certainly a bull market in cryptocurrency I have a hundred thousand dollars in this wallet it's here and I can use it to buy a pack of chewing gum I could use it to buy a flat-screen TV I can use it to buy copic any of these crypto currencies can ever be stable because there's no real value to stable I can buy tiny things with it I could buy expensive things with it and it is a pretty funny I'll let you I'll leave you to check it out on your own so we'll just move on so in relation to whether one thing is going up in relation to another thing I choose to look at it in a very simple way to help me understand it's really about perspective perspective of your point of view of how you see in it this is one of my favorites guy on the right says it's a nine guy on the Left says it's a six one person looks at a stock chart or the start or the charge of Bitcoin and they'll say it's going up another person look at it say it's going down it's all about perspective so I put together this little chart to help illustrate how I look at it and the way I look at it is and I know this is not really the case I know they're all going up and down as time goes on but the way I look at it is an asset like Bitcoin an asset like gold the stuff that people flock to in the time of crisis to preserve their purchasing power the quote unquote safe havens I look at them as they they don't go up or down in value they keep their value they stay the same it's the currency that goes up and down and inflates and deflates so let's just take for an example right the US dollar the one thousand dollars equals one thousand euros point one Bitcoin and one ounce of gold so all these things at this particular point in time just for argument's sake equal the same amount of value right so down here you have a savings account of a thousand dollars now at this point of time that thousand dollars can buy you let's say for shopping carts worth of goods so now a financial crisis comes along like we had in 2008 you have some bankers that made some bad bets they did some stupid things and they put the whole economy at risk because of it the federal government has to step in they have to bail some of these people out and the the Federal Reserve banks the let's modify these this slide a little bit it come along and they print a bunch not a bunch but trillions and trillions of dollars to inject into the market now what does that do to your thousand dollars now remember the euro is not gonna be included just the u.s.

02. doing this so the euro is gonna stay the same bitcoins are gonna stay the same gold it's gonna stay the same so let's say this inflates the US dollar to two hundred no $1,250 so a thousand two hundred and fifty remember I said if something is giving its given away freely it D values that particular thing so if they given money away freely it makes that thing worth less and it's gonna cost more to buy goods and services than it did before so now it's gonna cost you $1,250 to buy one euro to buy point one Bitcoin or buy one ounce of gold that I have referenced here as a gold Gold Eagle which is currently about two thousand dollars hard to find one under $2,000 right now a one ounce gold Eagle so anyway what does this do to our savings do does the savings is our savings go up or down in value well it's still the same actually right because it's still a thousand dollars but what can that thousand dollars now buy us well probably about only about three shopping carts worth of groceries right now based on the inflation all because they printed out these trillions and trillions doubt not a very good deal not a good deal at all not good for savers and this is why people don't want to save in times like these they don't want to save they want to buy things that they think are gonna go up in value or at least retain their purchasing power like stocks like gold like Bitcoin so let's flip this around a little bit let's let's go back in time let's go back to when everything was a thousand US dollars and we had for shopping carts here that we could buy with our thousand dollars so instead of saving a thousand what we decided to do is get rid of that we bought a gold coin for a thousand dollars the Fed prints up their money and now costs 1250 to buy one ounce of gold our gold a gold that we bought now can still buy the same amount of groceries maybe maybe just maybe one more a much better deal over time now if Bitcoin and gold or Bitcoin keeps that same status like gold does and keeps going up over time in relation to the dollar then you can do the same thing with Bitcoin instead of having instead of buying us a gold coin you could buy a Bitcoin but then again you wouldn't have to sell the whole gold coin you could just sell the fraction of the Bitcoin that's the benefit that Bitcoin gives you so that's just the way I look at it to make things easier in my mind remember it's all about perspective that's all for now see you next time