저자: HowardMarks-제목기준추정,채널발언자로표기 · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 매끄럽게 움직이지 않으며 큰 상승일과 하락일이 존재한다. 매수/매도 대신 투자자별 기본 위험 성향(0~100 중 약 75~80)을 정하는 것이 중요하다. 나이 기반 규칙(100-나이, 110/120 변형)은 참고용일 뿐이며, 투자 기간·소득 안정성·하락 감내 능력을 종합해 결정해야 한다. 은퇴자는 공격적 투자를 줄여야 하며, 평균 수익보다 나쁜 날을 버티는 능력이 중요하다.
다듬은 글
Do you have the ability to ride out the ups and downs or are you likely to panic at the low and sell out which is the worst wealth killer in history? How you balance positions based on the cycle versus simply just investing through all fluctuations. The main import of your question is that the market is does not perform smoothly and there are huge up days and also big down days.
The up days I think tend to be bigger than the down days but a function of the market setting the appropriate price for assets is not a smoothly operating one and every once in a while there's a there's a big boom and we shouldn't be surprised when that's the case. I think this concept of a aggressive versus defensive is very important.
You know, I go on TV every once in a while, mostly after I just finish writing a memo, and they're constantly trying to get me to say buy or sell, in or out. And in the last four or five years, I've I've gotten away from that kind of talk. And now the the way I say it is this. And by the way, short answers, especially in the investment business, are usually a mistake because the concepts are complex and uh not given to easy short answers.
So what rather than say buy or sell, what I say is this. Every investor, especially everybody in your audience, should have in my opinion a view of what their normal risk posture should be. And let's say we're talking about individuals. How should you set your normal risk posture? And in my opinion, the answer is you look at your age, your income, your current earnings, relationship between your current income and your needs, your the amount of money that you have in the bank or in a portfolio, the number of dependence you have, the the level of your aspirations and in oh and and in particular you have to make a judgment about your ability to live with volatility mostly intestinal.
Do you have the ability to ride out the ups and downs or are you likely to panic at the low and sell out which is the worst wealth killer in history? You think about all those things. You mesh them together and you and I the way I say it is from 0 to 60. Zero is all cash. 60 is maximum risk. You know, plunging into uh aggressive investments, maybe using leverage 0 to 100.
Where should you be? You should probably be about uh 75 or 80. You know, one thing is when you're older, if you think about the market cyclally, ups and downs. The younger you are, the more you can count on the long-term trend. And you have the freedom to if you have the intestinal strength, you have the freedom to ignore the the short-term ups and downs.
The older you get, the long-term trend becomes a bit of uh a bit academic and the short-term trends might make a bigger difference. Especially people who are for example retirees. Retiree or someone who's about to retire who has just about enough money to retire and live shouldn't be investing aggressively anymore because while the trendline outlook for aggressive investments might be positive, they might come across some difficult periods which in which their lives may be uh thrown into a tail spin.
And you know, one of my favorite sayings is never forget the man who was six feet tall who drowned crossing the stream that was 5t deep on average. In in our business, survival on average is irrelevant. You can't say, well, yes, he survived on average. You have to be able to survive on the bad days and uh you have to survive all the time, but the challenge of course comes on the bad days.
And so anyway, the point is you come up with with with the with a number and and you say, Trey, okay, uh, I'm an 80. My next question is, will you change your risk posture from day to day or month to month depending on what goes on in the market? Some people say, "No, Howard, I'm not going to change.
I I I'm in the position. I have a good portfolio. I'm going to leave it alone." Some people say yes, I'd like to change because when the market is too high, I'd like to cut back a little and when the market is too low, I'd like to turn uh put more uh oomph into my portfolio. So, if you are interested in changing your posture as appropriate, then question number three, what about today?
Today, do you think you should be more aggressive than your normal or more defensive than your normal? And I think that that's a more useful uh way to think about this than buy sell. Now look at this table. One of the most common rules for asset allocation is the 100 minus your age rule. You simply subtract your age from 100 and the remaining numbers give you the percentage of your portfolio that you could allocate to equities.
The rest can be allocated to debt instruments, bonds or other relatively stable assets. But there are advanced versions of this rule too. Some financial planners suggest using 110 or even 120 instead of 100, particularly for people with a longer investment horizon and a greater ability to take risk.
This could be relevant for self-employed individuals or business owners who can continue earning well beyond the age of 60. Now, the mathematics is simple. But here's the problem. The stock market does not move in a straight line. There are periods of strong gains followed by sharp corrections and sometimes prolonged bare markets.
Although the equities have historically delivered positive returns over the long run, the journey can be extremely volatile and this is where your personal risk tolerance becomes important. One of the fundamental principles of equity investing is to invest only the money you can afford to leave untouched for at least 5 or 10 years.
And this rule applies even when the market is booming because a bull run can create a false sense of security. Yes, the long-term trend of the stock market has historically been upwards but that does not mean every correction will be short-lived. Sometimes markets can remain depressed for several years and recovering from a major downturn can take much longer than you expect.
So don't decide your equity allocation based on a formula alone. Understand your financial obligations, your income stability, your investment horizon, and most importantly how much of a decline you can tolerate without panicking or selling your investments because of mathematical formula can suggest how much you should invest in equities. But only you can determine how much risk you can realistically handle.
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