저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 포트폴리오는 유연하게 관리해야 하며, 종목 보유 전 숙제(사업 이해·투자 논리 정리)를 하고 논리가 깨지면 과감히 매도해야 한다. [투자 원칙] 30년 경력의 규칙: 목표 설정 → 종목 숙제 → 논리 설명 → 매수. 자기 목표를 명확히 하고, 5~10개 비중복 업종으로 분산 포트폴리오를 구성한다. [숙제 방법] SEC 공시, 컨퍼런스콜 녹취록, 언론·의견을 참고해 사업 구조와 수익 동인을 파악하고, 투자 논리를 말로 설명해 허점이 없는지 점검한다. [유연성 강조] 시장과 산업은 동적이므로 처음 투자 논리가 영원히 유효하지 않다. 경쟁자 출현, 가격 인하, 경영 실수 등으로 논리가 깨지면 매도해야 하며 'Buy and Hold'는 잘못된 통념이라고 주장. [사례] 베드배스앤비욘드는 2013~2017년 약 54억 달러를 자사주 매입에 썼으나 점유율 하락을 막지 못했다. 경영진이 논리가 틀렸음에도 자사주 매입에 집착한 것이 실패 원인으로 제시됨. [감정 배제] 종목을 '결혼'처럼 사랑하면 안 되며, 손실이 커지기 전에 손절하라고 조언. [Q&A 요지] 인덱스 펀드·ETF는 분할 매수하고 하락장을 활용하라는 조언; ETF·뮤추얼펀드는 고가 종목 대안이 될 수 있으나 보유 종목이 중복될 수 있음; 채권은 보수적 투자자·고령자에게 적합하고 젊은 투자자는 더 많은 위험을 감수할 필요가 있다는 의견. [출연자 전망] 개별 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 명확하지 않음(일반 원칙 위주).
다듬은 글
regular viewers know I've got a lot of rules the result of more than 30 years in the money management business versus broker then it's a hedge fund manager then it's a journalist and a commentator I've got rules for investing rules for trading rules for what to do in a rally or a sell-off for picking winners for avoiding losers that can be a lot to take in but as I mentioned before the point of all these rules is to help you learn from my mistakes and develop your own judgment I just explained why you need to have a clear understanding of your own objectives before you start buying stocks something more focused than merely trying to make some money so let's pretend you've already done some self-reflection and you know what you're trying to accomplish now you can start buying individual stocks enough to fill out a diversified portfolio of 5 to 10 names right hold on before you buy anything I need you to do one more thing first you have to do the homework now I've covered this before I'm going to give you a quick version right now if you're going to invest enough money in a company for it to matter to your portfolio you need to know what the heck the company does you need to know how it makes its money and how much money it makes the Internet has made this whole process much easier certainly when I first started the show holy cow is this now at the light I mean you can go online read the SEC filings which contain a wealth of information you can listen to or read the transcripts of the conference calls which I regard as the best way to get familiar with the business and the key metrics that will drive it stock feel free to read some journalism on top of that listen to some opinions anything to familiarize yourself with both company itself in the way its stock trades and of course listen I've written a half dozen books just about this topic okay about how to do the homework but the actual resource is just part of doing the homework if you've learned what you can and develop the thesis a theory about why this you think the stock set higher there's one final step you have to explain that theory to another living breathing human being it doesn't have to be a professional you can talk to your mom your kids a friend the important thing here is that you put your thesis into words that may you can basically a comprehend it yourself lay out why you want to buy this thing and why you think it's headed higher if there are major holes in your theory or your you're relying on wishful thinking usually a reasonable or even your teenager will be able to catch that once you've done that though then you are ready to pull the trigger but those of you who are tuning me out because you can't stand to hear another word about homework I'm done that's it that's all say about that process of preparing to buy stock because tonight I'm trying to focus on the bigger picture so let's fast-forward a little once you've done the homework you can build a diversified portfolio five to ten individual stocks now any more than ten and you'll likely want have time to keep up with them all the idea here is that you should be able to do this in your spare time not that you'll turn money management into a second or third job but well how can I have so many stocks Forex learners plus calm which you can follow along obviously if you subscribe because I've got two research assistants you're doing it yourself so let's assume you own shares and a bunch of copies that you genuinely believe in you now have a thesis for each one there's no sector overlap meaning you have five to ten companies and dis in distinct industries that don't tend to trade together diversification let me play on the show in short you have what in theory is an ideal portfolio what's the most important thing for you to keep in mind above and beyond everything else you need to know that your perfect portfolio won't stay perfect for the law those five to ten stocks you thought were winners yeah unless you're certainly lucky not all of them will stay winners some will be losers some will do nothing and some of the companies that you liked best will inevitably disappoint you what can I say the game is full of heartbreak which brings me to my next meta rule always please please try to stay flexible you have to be flexible because business by its very nature is dynamic not static things do change markets changed new competitors will enter in the industry and undercut existing players on price to take market share previously well-run companies will start executing poorly and we've seen that time and again customers cancel orders unforeseen events happened that hurt business or simply makes some category of stocks seem less attractive to the big institutional money managers who dominate the market when something like this occurs when the story of a company that you own shares in changes well then you gotta be wounded knowledge that things are different if you're this is no longer intact if the reason you gave for buying stock is no longer valid then you should say this is why you need to explain your pics to another person so that you can recognize when your original idea has stopped being workable that may sound straightforward but for decades so-called experts of peddle the idea that when you buy a stock you need to be prepared to hold on to it until they until the death of the universe how many times have you heard someone say buy and hold buy and hold well I've gotta tell you that's nonsense don't get me wrong I would love to buy a stock and hold it from here to eternity because the story pans out and the darn thing keeps going higher but if the story doesn't pan out or after a long time there are big changes in the industry well you gotta be willing to sell please sell some that's why I always tell you it's buying homework not buy and hold I just wish a lot of the craters with a dot buy and homework we'd save people a lot of money now I bring this up because people hate hate hate admitting when they're made a mistake and of course they hate selling anything just worried about taxes but once it makeup reminds that things are great for say coca-cola we don't want the facts to get in a good way of a good story right but you know what you can't afford to fall in love with a stock when you buy shares in a publicly traded company you're not joining that stock and holy matrimony you don't swear to stick with it in sickness and health for richer or poorer you don't need to go to a judge you get a divorce it's just a piece of paper so acknowledge when something's changed if you buy a stock because you believe the underlying company is going to take a ton of market share and then if all fails to do so well don't move the goalposts on yourself don't search for new reasons to hang on just get out of there you must be willing to recognize that companies can take our turn for the worse management's make mistakes CEOs make best fruity chicken tactical errors every day let's pick one let's pick Bed Bath & Beyond you may know that when I literally spent 5.4 billion dollars by aunts owned stock back from 2013 to 2017 through 2017 and it was a no fate attempt to boost the earners per share by shrinking it and I'm there says so to speak and therefore take your stock price up but it didn't really work the company kept losing market share to all online competitors like Amazon and the buyback accomplished next to nothing by the Summer 2018 bed bath marking compensation of less than 2.7 billion dollars they spend twice that amount on the buyback if they'd simply put that money in a mattress that company now be worth twice as much you know what their mistake was the guys running Bed Bath & Beyond work they weren't flexible they kept buying back to their own stock in the mistaken belief that would help don't make the same error when something goes wrong with the company you own be ready to stop hoping and start selling listen being unwilling to recognize the turn for the worse as bad as it might be almost always seems to lead to much larger losses than you've already accrued the bottom line let's bring it all together before you buy a stock do some homework and come up with a thesis a reason why you think that stock is headed higher once you own it please stay flexible if your thesis doesn't play out the way you expected it to sell the darn stock don't keep bashing your head against the wall just recognize that things don't always go your way and then so move on lianna Massachusetts lien Booya Jim Booya Liam hey I just had a quick question about index funds sure you say with certain stocks buy them at certain times like monthly or quarterly or when a good price does that apply to index funds because you say to purchase ten thousand I'm really trying to do is make it so that you don't necessarily come in all at once a lot of people just put the money to work I actually like to space things out maybe try to catch when you get a real downturn if you put all your money and before then you can't take advantage of it that's why I like to be flexible Mike in Texas Mike yeah hi Jim thanks for taking my call of course Jim I'd like to own some individual names in the text space um but I'm finding that the prices of these stocks are just too expensive so I've started looking at some ETFs and some mutual funds and as an affordable way to gain some exposure to these names and I'd really like to hear what you what your thoughts are on the matter what do you things that I don't like about the mutual fund industries they don't update what they really own so they may be buying the same stock so you think are too pricey when it comes to an ETF that's just actually all doing is you're modernizing the same deal so you either have to decide that the markets too rich or that group is too rich and therefore not to buy or of course you just say you know what I'm gonna take a long-term view and I'm not going to game it and maybe don't buy all at once put space out your box Matthew and Arizona Matthew hey Jim Matt how's it going I am doing well how about you Matt I'm doing good couldn't be better hey I got a thing for you is it a good idea to invest in the government if so should it be a short-term investment or a long-term investment cash is short-term investments longer-term you may just want to be able to take advantage of some higher rates and get in there and use the power of compounding I think the conservative investor who is older should be thinking about Treasury some young person and you do sound young they don't fit you need to take on more risk not less that's a whole life to make up that plenty if you do lose it before do you want to stop the thesis on why you think it's headed higher and once you on it please stay flexible what's one Mad Money ed there's not crying in it there's nothing crying investing I'm telling you why it's time to take emotions out of it when it comes to picking stocks then how the acclaimed poet Maya Angelou gave me some of the best invested eyes I've ever heard and I say there's always one market somewhere every knee every night right and tonight I'm telling you where to find it so
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