저자: PiotrCymcyk · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 반복된 대폭락 예측은 타이밍이 틀려 실익이 없다고 비판. 2005년 주택담보대출 CDS 베팅은 예외적 성공이며 생존편향이 있음. 버리 포트폴리오 실제 성과는 S&P500 상회로 평가. 예측(조건·기한·오류조건 명시)과 예언(모호한 기간·조건 없음)을 구분해야 함. 채널 홍보 및 유료 구독 권유 포함.
다듬은 글
A broken clock shows the correct time twice a day. That's true. Unfortunately, for the remaining 1438 minutes it shows nonsense. Michael Berry, the man from The Big Short. This movie, the legend that predicted the crises of 2008. Once again he announced the impending great crash. This time the market may collapse like in 1987, and the AI bubble has even received an expiration date from it .
The year is 2028. If anyone is feeling down, it's just another week with Michael Byry, who predicts a crash more often than a train arrives at Central Station. December 2015, a step in a few months, it was gone. May 2017, global collapse coming, it didn't come. September 2019, the passive revolution will end like CDO.
Since then, however, the market has grown by 120%. March 2020, big short, but announced at the bottom, then only up. January 2023, one word, sell. Since that day, the S&P has risen about 90%. And now I'm not recording this to make fun of Byre. Definitely. Definitely. Sure. Bright. Maybe I'm recording a little because this story is the best training ground for learning three things that will save your wallet in the future.
How to distinguish a prediction from a prophecy? Why can one brilliant analysis ruin the media's calibration for life? How much does it really cost to listen to such eternal bears? The super cycle is ending, the super crisis is coming. But we'll also check out Brego's other side , because he's an investor who doesn't really give a damn about his own predictions and beats the S&P 500 index himself, investing much more often than he's shorting.
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We'll hit 120,000, so let 's click, we don't wait. Byry recently pointed out again that the S&P 500 rose more than 5% this time in just four sessions and ended the move at then-historic highs. A similar situation had only occurred three times before. In April 99, March 2000 and November 2020. Well, the first two cases fell around the end of the dot-com bubble, so that sounds dangerous.
Now there is also a technological bubble, a bubble in quotation marks. However, when I look at April 99 on NZDAQ, it would be nice if Berry was right. Since then, the NZDAQ has gained about 150% in 10 months to its peak. However, after November 2020, another of the three cases listed by Byre, the S&P 500 began another wave of growth, but this did not prevent him from making a bearish argument out of it all.
Should any sensible person take this crap to heart and head ? NO. The problem with Ber is that before the 2008 mortgage crisis, he actually analyzed the structure of subprime loans, the quality of debtors, the timing of the reset, interest rates, and then found a way to bet real money against the securities built on these loans.
How did it work out for him? Well, in the end it turned out well for him. There was even a movie made about it, but in reality it was just that far from going bankrupt. Berry started betting on a credit crunch back in 2005, almost two years ago. before his position actually started generating any profits.
He then used CDS swaps, which worked similarly to insurance, meaning he regularly paid a premium to banks and in return was to receive money if the specified mortgage bonds began to lose value. And as long as the borrowers paid the installments, Byry bore the costs and received nothing in return. For a really long time this position was generating huge losses.
Clients were demanding their capital back, so Berry was supposedly right about the direction, but he entered so early that the market almost forced him out of his position before it was fully resolved. Ultimately, however, the mortgages burst. His investors earned about $725 million, and the sambers earned about $100 million.
In that story, he accurately predicted the direction, indicated a specific mechanism that would lead to it, and used the appropriate instrument. In addition, it withstood market pressure for 2 years. The success of 2008, no matter what one says, was fully deserved for Bery. But unfortunately, psychologically it often leads to the belief that the market is always wrong and all that is needed is to wait.
A multitude of subsequent gloomy forecasts would automatically appear on the front pages of portals and they almost never come true. In December 2015, he warned of a crash in the coming months. Over the next year, the S&P 500 grew 11%. In May 2017 he spoke about the global financial collapse. Over the next 12 months, the index gained 19%.
In September 2019, he compared the inflow of capital into index funds with the popularity of CDOs before the mortgage crisis, where, according to Bery, passive investing weakens the risk pricing mechanism in stocks, which will also lead to the inevitable destruction of us all. The effect was that from that statement until November 2025, the SNV 500 grew by 120%.
At the same time, ETFs have become even more popular. This is the only thing that happened. The value of accumulated assets worldwide in ETFA increased from 6 trillion at the end of 2019 to 19 trillion in 2025. In March 2020, in the midst of the pandemic panic, Berry showed a large short position on indices.
A year later, the S&P 500 was 72% higher than 72%. In February 2021, the market was supposed to be dancing on a knife edge. The bull market raged for another year . The S&P 500 may have fallen into a bear market in 2022, but even that wasn't amazing and actually brought it down to the levels where Berry said back then that we were dancing on a knife edge.
Again, his problem was timing. Just like with Bitcoin, where he talked many times about a big bubble, and then Bitcoin set all-time records. Well, someone will say that he is right, but it is too early. Not really, because he was right far less than half the time in those predictions, so you might as well say he was just shooting.
Moreover, when it comes to playing for relegation, timing is the most important thing. When buying stocks, the difference between being wrong and being right prematurely can be irritating, but it's something you can simply wait out because the market simply goes up in the long run. When betting on the decline, bad timing can wipe out your account, as the market drops by an average of 30%, and then poof, it rises hundreds of percent again.
In addition, there is a fee for such entertainment. Options lose value over time. Borrowed shares for a short time require the payment of interest. Futures contracts must be rolled over. Even if the price eventually falls, the investor still has to experience the path to that decline. Byry won on mortgages not only because he saw a problem.
He won because he had a well-constructed position and enough capital to wait until the decision was made, but he still managed to do so by luck, because a crack two or three months later and Byry would not have been on the board. This is n't talked about so often anymore, is it? This chart in front of you shows the analyzed rise of the S&P 500 6 months after Byre's last five doomsday warnings.
The bars are above zero every time, and after a major bearish position was revealed in March 2020, the growth rate exceeded 96%. In September 2022, Byry even suggested that the bottom of the bear market had not yet arrived. The market bottomed out shortly thereafter in October. It was only a few small percentages short of that.
On January 31, 2026, he gave his short sell, sell. Two months later he admitted he shouldn't have even written it. Well, he shouldn't have, but some people probably sold it because they listened. On the day that post was published, the S&P 500 closed at 4,076 points. At the end of August 2026 it was already over 7,700 points.
An increase of almost 90%. Even a 40% drop would not bring the index back to the sell day price . And this 90% is a very good symbol of the cost of permanent pessimism. Even if an investor believes valuations are high, he or she may lose much more by missing the bull market than he or she will save later during the correction that may occur.
In addition, remember that after the sale, you have to make another decision. You have to choose the moment to come back, and you have to do it when it turns out that we are right, that the economic news is terrible, the charts are red, and more and more experts are predicting further declines. then we have to do it, when we are supposedly right, we have to bet again that the truth will change.
In practice, hitting both moments well is unrealistic. Just for balance, I will add that the media themselves are responsible for part of the image of Bery that I am currently making fun of, as they often attribute certain views to him. Berry himself has argued that for most of his time and career, he has been dominated by long positions in stocks, and the data bears this out.
reporters often simply took the put option from the 13F forms and added a sentence about a great crash to them. Sure, Berry has written about X a few times, as I mentioned a moment ago, and those are his mistakes, but other than that, he's pretty much right on this point . Form 13F shows the portion of the U.S.
portfolio at the end of the quarter. It does not reveal the whole picture of the shorts, it does not say why they were made. It does not say when they were made. It does not guarantee that the item still exists on the date of publication. In the case of options, the reported value usually corresponds to the value of the underlying instrument, and not to how much we actually bought the given bet for.
And that changes a lot. Well, in 2025, the media said that Berry bet $900 million on Palantir's inheritance. Well, that's [ __ ] . In fact, he bet nine. It might be a lot for Mr. Janek, but it certainly wasn't for a large hedge fund, so the headline amount was 100 times greater than what was actually put up.
Moreover, simply buying a downward option does not mean that you have to expect a disaster. You can simply hedge other investments or count on a short-term price reduction. Well, a bit like with an umbrella. If you take him for a walk, it doesn't mean you're expecting a major hurricane or typhoon. Well, maybe you just think it's going to fall.
So the media really contributes a lot of Bery's views , because if you check the source that doesn't lie, that is, how he actually invested his money when it was still publicly available, you can see a much more interesting story, because the Berys from the headlines and the Berys from the brokerage account are two completely different people.
He often issues warnings in his statements , but for most of his career he actually invested normally in his portfolio, looking for undervalued stocks, investing for growth, and so on and so forth. In 2019, he even bought the famous GameStop for purely fundamental reasons, before the company became the center of speculation and was engulfed by the short squeeze that took place in 2020.
Unfortunately, he sold all the shares before the actual short squeeze, when the price shot up 2,000%. Bad luck, that's all. But he also invested in small Japanese companies, in Chinese companies, and in American Valiu companies. Very often he looked for undervalued companies, overlooked by the market and oversubscribed.
This is his model of functioning. Tipranks calculated the model result of Bery's portfolio, i.e. the SON fund, based on the positions disclosed in 13F forms. The orange line represents son and you can see that it is much more variable than the others. But the calculated rate of return is impressive.
outperforms the S&P 500 and outperforms the average hedge fund. And sure, only the Covid bull market of 2021 would allow the rem to overtake the S&P 500, because in the last decade the portfolio oscillated around zero. But come on, what counts is the final effect. The end result is that it is better than the index.
You know an investor by how he finishes. This is the only valuable metric. So Bere's actual decisions were much different and more varied than media warnings about further disasters would suggest. I even have a suspicion that predicting this whole crash is largely a ploy by Bery to stay in the media, not to be dropped, to be present all the time, to attract people.
Real investments are a completely different story. I can even really believe it. Besides, Byry wouldn't be the first player of this type who says one thing and does another. Reidalio also had a similar strategy. he was constantly threatening, but in reality he was investing and buying. Don't scare, don't scare.
This whole new prophecy of his from August also has a colossal, fundamental, structural problem. And the biggest problem with this Bere prophecy is in the word perhaps possible, we'll see. Well, it's possible the market is close to its peak. Possible. It's possible it will fall like in '87. Possibly.
Everything is possible. It is also possible that in a year we will have 15,000 points on the S&P 500. This is also possible and this is a really good time for everyone to learn how to distinguish between prediction and prophecy. The difference is very simple. The forecast has four elements. It has some level, it has some deadline, it has some error condition, and it has consequences.
So it's about what will happen, when it will happen, how I'll know I was wrong and what I'll do with my money as a result. That's why there are almost 6,100 other people in DNA Premium , because there are no prophecies there. There are predictions, some better, some worse, but they are predictions, not prophecies.
Prophecy only has a mood and wide windows of time. The forecast can be settled. The prophecy can be quoted at most. That's why Berry is so eager to be quoted. In 2005, Berry had a forecast, a whole lot of forecasts, specific bonds, a specific mechanism, a specific instrument, a specific position that was successfully settled.
And that in 2026 he has a prophecy. A '87-style decline is possible, somewhere in there, maybe 2028. So see how it's done. Such a forecast cannot be refuted at this time, because everything is possible, but at the same time it cannot be used for anything, because there is no entry or exit level, no exact date, no scale of the potential decline, no condition under which this thesis would be considered incorrect.
There is nothing . The year 2028 itself leaves a dozen or so months for increases, decreases, maybe some new emissions, maybe better models, maybe new sources of demand. If someone is betting on declines using an option, for example, that loses value over time, then this is a geological epoch and Berry knows it perfectly well.
Well, in 2008 he also almost lost in the end, even though he predicted everything correctly in that case. But this is a very convenient position for such rhetoric, because when the market is growing, there is no need to admit to a mistake. Well, it's just too early . If the market goes down, that's all there was to it .
Another proof of genius, great genius. A very wide time window is enough and practically every crash can be attributed to some kind of alarm. I can also say that I expect a significant market decline over the next 10 years . And what about living [ __ ]? You'll be shorting the market after such a shitty forecast.
And the classic mass media love this kind of arrangement. As the saying goes, the investor who predicted 2008 warns again. This is a hero, this is a past success, this is a new disaster. There is immediate fear. There is no need to explain the cost estimate, options, size, or position. There is no need to do anything like that.
The only problem is that after a dozen or so such headlines, some people finally learned not to listen to them. In the end, it's not really a problem. A problem for the media, but a joy for everyone, because in the profession of a prophet there is an asymmetry that an investor can only dream of. Weak countries will fall like jackdaws.
If you predict a crash, nothing will happen if you miss. Weak people will fall like mosquitoes. The investor will pay cash immediately for the incorrect position . A forecaster won't pay anything if he doesn't have a position, and Berry often doesn't have the position he says he has. And we forget that in 2005 many people, not just Berry, were betting on the decline of the mortgage market.
Every year someone bets on something or other, but most of them go bankrupt too early, or have a bad position, or bet on the wrong instrument, and no movie is made about them . You know Bery because he succeeded then, but history only shows the winner of that lottery. You can't see everyone else's cemetery.
This is a classic survival error. It's called survivor bias. Byry was great, but at the same time he was very lucky and you have to be able to separate the two. And he himself has had the media clock set to crash for years . Once because of index funds, once because of inflation, once because of technology companies, once because of the artificial intelligence boom.
Anything can be inserted. And at this time the market goes into correction, returns to growth. It goes into correction, returns to growth and new records and new records and new records. And so it goes. And sure, sometimes it even shows some real risks that are worth discussing, but the problem begins when each of these risks is treated as a harbinger of a great disaster, because high valuations can persist for years.
Excessive debt does not always end in a crisis, and a speculative bubble can grow even dozens of times before bursting. Just because you found a crack in the wall doesn't mean that the building will collapse tomorrow, or that it will simply stand for another 20 or so years. For Bery, such prophecies are a very convenient arrangement, but for the investor, they are much, much worse.
It's worth remembering this. And if you want real and sensible forecasts, not predictions, then I invite you to DNA Premium Markets, where a multitude of investors, currently almost 6,100, receive various analyses and thoughts on companies, the economy, and markets every day from me and our entire DNA team, and they also have the opportunity to observe how I invest my own savings in portfolios totaling almost 10 million złoty.
big money, big emotions, but above all a lot of learning and I can promise and guarantee you this learning. So you can find the topic on the premiumdanków.pl website. Link in the description, of course. That's all there is to it . To earn money. Hi.
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