저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
다나허(DHR)는 2022년 초 매수 후 코로나 이후 부진했으나, 2025년 2분기 실적이 매출·이익 상회와 가이던스 상향으로 호조를 보여 주가가 반등했다고 진단. 다만 중국 사업(진단 부문 감소, 대량구매 제도 영향)은 여전히 우려 요인. 바이오프로세싱 수주 회복과 모노클로널 항체 사업의 성장을 근거로 보유 입장 유지하며 추가 매수를 권유. 보험 managed care 관련 질문에는 유나이티드헬스 실적 발표 후 판단하겠다고 답변.
다듬은 글
Coming into this week, I was really worried about Dan Herur, the life science and diagnostic powerhouse to be on for the travel trust. You can follow, of course, by joining the CBC Investing Club. See, for many years, Danner was arguably the bestrun conglomerate on Earth. And the stock has been a phenomenal long-term winner, up over 1,000% over the past 20 years.
But ever since we got through the pandemic, the stock has struggled to get back on track. Now, we bought this one in early 2022. We happened to own it a couple times previous and get a chance to buy Dan and her weakness because I expected the business to stabilize and the stock to make a comeback like that.
But for one reason after another, Dan Herd never really found its footing. First, it was China's slower recovery from the pandemic. Then customers overordered in response to the supply chain crisis, leaving them with excess inventory, meaning no need to buy new stuff from these guys. Then it was that teep IPO market because fewer biotech IPOs translates into fewer new drug companies with money to spend on Danurs equipment.
Oh, then it was President Trump's tariff extravaganza along with the spending cuts to the National Institutes of Health. Again, less money for the life sciences equipment. As a result, this has been a tough stock to own. Data always seems to be on the verge of getting better and historically it's been one of the best run companies on earth but in the last few years they keep dropping the ball and remember I blame them because I don't really care about their excuses.
I want wins. Now making things worse Abbott Labs and other charitable trust holdings saw a major pullback last week and that was in part because of issues with the Chinese business. Remember Dan's big China exposure. So we decided to sell bit of Dan her for the charitable trust just in case something went wrong with the quarter.
That's how worried we were. And I got to tell you, when Dana reported on Tuesday morning, it almost gave me a heart attack because the stock immediately got clobbered. The company actually delivered a pretty good set of numbers. A healthy revenue beat steady organic growth and better than expected margins.
All leading up to a 16-cent earnings beat of $164 basis. I like that. Now, the last time Dan her reported strong results in April, management paired that with very cautious guidance, which held the stock back. This time though, management raised their fullear earnings forecast and also gave healthy guidance for the current quarter.
Now, at first I breathed a sigh of relief when I saw those numbers, but then I checked the stock and somehow it was down. In fact, at one point it was down nearly 7% in pre-market trading. Well, guess what I wanted to do? This earning season has been a real roller coaster for the travel trust. That plunged dinner almost drove me insane.
Oh, you might argue I was already insane, but I mean new levels of insanity. I started trying to figure out what the heck Dan her did wrong this time. Snake bit. Were investors objecting to the fact that Danner only raised his fullear earnings forecast not taking up the revenue numbers even though they reported revenue beat.
Was that it? Was was there a China issue like we saw from Abbott Labs? Maybe investors were disappointed that Dan her announced it CFO Matthew Mcgru would be retiring next year. This is how I was grasping from his straws. I didn't know what the issue was. I just couldn't believe it was happening again.
ignorant of the company mustered some fairly solid numbers and good guidance. But thankfully the story got a happy ending this time around. The stock rebounded from its lows on Tuesday morning and was almost back to even by the time the market opened. Then Dan her rallied although it was choppy and still it finished the session up 1%.
Hey, not great but certainly not the end of the world. Things got better yesterday when upon further review buyers stepped in and the stock shot up nearly $8 or 2 or 4.2%. Then attack it tacked on another 2.5% today. Only this quarter was a positive catalyst for Dan stock as it always should have been because when you really looked into the numbers like we did with the investing club for subscribers, there was so much to like here.
Of course, that doesn't mean everything's suddenly perfect for dinner. There's some hair on this one like in your soup. Starting with the thing I'm most worried about, that's China. Sales were down mid-s singledigle digits in the People's Republic versus modest growth in North America and high singledigit growth in Western Europe.
On the conference call this week, Riner Blair tried to stress that only parts of China are bad, touting strength in the company's biotechnology and life sciences businesses, but said that those were more than offset by the decline in Daner's diagnostics business due to volume-based procurement and reimbursement changes that were implemented by the Chinese authorities late last year.
It's not just Dan her. Believe me, everybody got hit by this. This volumebased procurement issue is a result of China's national strategy to curb health care costs. And it's the same problem that plagued Abbott when they reported last week. I was upset about that, too. But putting aside China, I think there was far more good news than bad news this quarter.
For example, while all three of Danhurst's core segments reported better than expected results, their highest margin biotechnology segment led the way. That had 8% sales growth. That's 150 basis points of operating margin expansion and operating income of more than 12%. Wow, that's very good. The core of Danner's biotechnology segment is its bioprocessing division.
Now it is about a $6 billion business, but one that struggled in recent quarters. Finally though, bioprocessing looks to be on the men. Few months ago, management started talking about positive order trends for that business and now Danner says these trends continue throughout the second quarter. That's great.
The booktoill ratio for biorocessing orders remains at around one, meaning the company's fulfilling orders about as quickly as they get them. In particular, Danner is seeing success with monoconal antibodies, which represented over 75% of the biorocessing unit sales. That's good, too. Here's how the CEO put it.
Quote, overall order activity in the first half and second quarter are fully supportive of a high singledigit core growth in second half. End quote. and he thinks boprocessing can maintain high single growth long term. Pretty good. So after investors had time to digest Anders's quarter on Tuesday, they ultimately decided that the good did outweigh the bad and the stock broke out the upside next day.
Now remember uh we saw the same problem, the same issue in a couple we saw it in dominoes on Monday and Tuesday. Sadly during the height of earning season, earnings season investors, they're so quick to judge. Many saw the stock down in pre-market trading on Tuesday and simply figured that there must have been something really bad about the day and a quarter when it simply wasn't the case.
I'm betting that that's going to be the same thing for Honeywell for the same thing for Dover. See, it was only after investors looked more closely that the stock finally got its due and may at last be poised and ready to return to the wondrous days of the old Danaher. Here's the bottom line. It's been very tough to be a bull on Dan her for the past couple of years.
And the company's still not perfect, but I think we've finally reached the tipping point here now that the core biorocessing business is on the rebound. That's why we're sticking around for the Chaval Trust and why you have my blessing to pick us on the stock right here. Let's go to Todd in California.
Todd, hey, how you doing? Hey, with all the uh managed healthc care companies just getting shellacked, is now a good time to uh maybe take a nibble at Sigma? I want you to wait until United Health makes a clear vision of what's really going wrong. So, United Health's going to report and that's going to be coming up and then once they report, we then look at the downside for the rest of the group and we make decisions.
Now, that's only 5 days away. So, let's make sure we wait bat on shoulder and then we'll make our move. Look guys, it's been real tough to be a bull and d her lately, but I think the business is finally turning around. And that's why I'm sticking with it and you should do some buy now. Much more made money.
At this year's NVIDIA GTC conference, Jensen held quantum computing day. So we need to understand more about this industry. I'm checking in with one of the the players in this space called I on Q. Then leadership matters in bull market. I am sharing which groups are leading us higher and why it matters. And of course all your calls rapid fire in tonight's edit]
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