저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 인플레이션이 12~18개월 내 2~2.5%로 내려가고 경제가 견조해 주식 상승장이 이어질 것이라는 낙관론. 경기와 인플레이션: 2023년 초 침체를 예상하는 분위기였지만 경기는 회복력을 보였으며, 산업별로 순차적으로 둔화되는 '롤링 리세션'이었다고 평가. 인플레이션은 예상보다 일시적(transitory)이었고 상품 물가 주도로 빠르게 하락했다고 봄. 임대료 인플레이션은 하락할 것으로 전망. 중국 요인: 중국의 경기침체로 수입 상품 가격이 내려 미국 인플레 둔화에 기여했다고 설명. 주식시장: 2022년 10월 저점을 13개월 전 바닥으로 보고, 연말 4600 목표가 7월에 달성. 올해는 대선 3년차 등 전형적인 강세 패턴이었다고 평가. 작년에는 S&P 5400을 말했는데 당시엔 황당해 보였다고 회고. 6000 목표는 아직 아니며 5000 돌파 후 다시 묻길 원함. 1920년대식 'Roaring 2020s' 전개 가능성 언급, 기술 혁신(AI 등)이 생산성을 높일 것으로 봄. 주식 vs 채권: 장기 보유 관점에서 주식이 채권보다 유리하다는 버크셔·버핏-멍거 스타일. 10년물 약 4% 수준 채권은 매력이 크지 않다고 평가하고, 배당 성장주 선호. 정책 리스크: 과거 정부 실수(1920년대 대공황 사례)를 언급하며 현 정부의 관세 정책에 우려를 시사.
다듬은 글
next guest says the Santa Claus rally and stocks will continue through the end of the year here with more uh yardeni research president Ed yardeni and um I got a lot to think about here Ed because it's all happening for you it's all coming true um the things that you've been talking about with us for the past six months you you've like nailed this then I was thinking about um Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett go back to 75 what do we go back when were you at were you in were you there at 8 in 84 at uh I think I had moved by then to what was then called presedential Beach you had moved by then but uh you were there prior to that when I was at Merill I think and I followed your work I I think of you as more of a an overall Economist but when you've come on the show recently you've been a total stock market forecaster right right is that that's kind of a chang but you were right and so what you're saying now and and that was you're basically saying say inflation's going to moderate fed's not going to have to go any further this is a a muchh hated stock market rally it does have legs and I think it's all come to fruition and you think it's going to continue I do I I think the economy has proven its resilience since early last year when a lot of people were anticipating a recession uh actually early last year I said we're actually in a recession it's just a rolling recession affecting different Industries at different times we had something like that in the mid 1980s I also felt uh that uh inflation would turn out to be very spiky as as it often is uh there's a lot of worries that it was going to be like the 1970s all over again uh but in fact it's turned out to be relatively transitory I know for some people that uh that that seems a little bit uh naive to say that it was transitory uh but in the grand scheme of things in the in this scope of History uh it really has come down remarkably quickly here in a very symmetrical fashion and a lot of that's uh been led by Goods I think rent inflation is going to come down and on the good side one of the reasons we haven't had to have a did not have a recession or have not had to have a recession to bring it down is because China's done it for us China's in a recession and we import a lot of goods from China and their in the the prices of what we import from them has come down a lot so there's a lot going on here a lot of moving Parts um I did turn more optimistic on the bonds at four and A qu% and it was pretty miserable there in in August September and October but here we are almost back to that level back to 4 a quarter you there's been articles written that the 5,000 Club is growing for for the S&P and no one was there um back when we were at the god that's a year ago the October lows now we got to figure we got to say which October so we meant the the October from 13 months ago those lows no one was was in the 5,000 Club then and you say maybe you were but now you say yeah sign yourself up for the rip roaring 2020s what does that mean 5,000 and Beyond yeah in in late October of last year I thought that we had made the low on October 12th and I started uh talking about 4600 by the end of this year we got there by the J by July and you know the tendency the human tendency is to say okay let's double up here uh but I I thought that we might have a a correction and that in fact played out this year has really turned out to be with a benefit of hindsight a very classic year uh you know third term of a presidential election we had a January effect which was very bullish we had um a uh an October a September and October selloff and now we've got this year and Santa Claus rally but even a year ago I when I was started to predict uh 20 24 I said we could get to 5400 which seemed farfetched and delusional but now as you said there's more people joining that club are you in the 6,000 club I'm not there yet I'm not there yet I'm not there yet but uh let's let's let's get it over 5,000 and then ask me again but yeah look I I think like uh I'm in the bur Berkshire Hathaway camp in the uh Buffett Munger camp that uh you know stocks really are meant to be held for for the long run uh a lot of the wall Street's pessimists did a pretty good job of telling people to get out early last year they they they forgot to tell everybody to get back in and they remain bearish uh the stock market over the long run does extremely well because the economy does extremely well right to really make bonds to to really float my boat for bonds like a 10-year we need a really crappy secular bare Market I mean cuz I mean stocks are going to outperform but that's the best you'll get is 4% it's okay you get your money back you get 4% a year you get your money I get it but I mean if you're any good at all like for what you do I think you can find a dividend yielder that's going to grow over time and you know maybe protect the downside and uh I mean it makes sense it just depends on your personal situation but I could never get too excited about Bond much depends on inflation Joe I I think inflation is coming back down to two two and a half% within the next after 18 months we got a lot of powerful technology that and that you know and then you mentioned we're importing some of that from China too which who who who knew that that that was going to help us yeah so we go back to early 80s then that's not quite 1975 yeah I mean I I am talking about the Roaring 2020s as a as a real possibility for the rest of this decade technology L Innovation boost productivity you know what followed the original rowing 20s Ed I mean um I don't know yeah I don't know whether that's I do but that was a big government mistake uh and the government oh that could never that could never happen again that could never happen again look at these great guys we got in Hol tariff yeah yeah yeah we're yeah clear saling from here and out with these guys
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