저자: 켄피셔 · 한국인
요약 보기
2026년 증시 전망은 상승 쪽이며, S&P500은 10% 초중반 상승을 예상한다. 2025년 피셔 예측 복기: S&P500 12~13% 상승 전망 대비 실제는 16% 상승으로 대체로 맞았고, 유럽 증시가 미국보다 낫다는 예측도 적중했으며, 한국 증시 반등 예측도 맞았다. 반면 가치주가 미국에서 성장주보다 낫다는 예측은 틀렸다. 예측 방법론: 기관 전망을 취합해 대부분 9% 부근에 몰려 있으면 실제는 그보다 높거나 낮게 나올 확률을 따지는 방식이며, 전문가 예측은 가격에 선반영되어 대체로 빗나간다는 전제를 쓴다. 강세장 단계: 현재는 낙관 단계로 강세장이 아직 끝나지 않았고 상승 여력이 있다고 보며, 도취 단계 진입 여부가 리스크다. 도취 신호로는 대형 IPO(스페이스X, 앤트로픽, 데이터브릭스, 크라켄 등 올해 상장 추진)가 시장 과열을 촉발하는 경우를 꼽는다. 정치 리스크: 프랑스 정정 불안은 글로벌 약세장으로 이어지기 어렵다고 보며, 미국 중간선거는 교착(분점) 시 증시에 긍정적이고 중간선거 이후 1·2분기 상승 확률이 88%라고 설명한다. 민주당의 하원·상원 탈환 가능성이 높다고 본다. 스타일/지역: 올해도 비미국 주식이 미국보다, 가치주가 성장주보다 나을 것으로 보며, 금리곡선 스팁닝과 대출 증가가 가치주·경기민감주에 유리하다고 본다. 미국 대출성장률 5.7%, 유럽 3.6%, 캐나다 3.9%를 근거로 든다. 결론적으로 해설 영상의 핵심은 2026년 S&P500 10% 초중반 상승, 유럽·가치주 우위, 강세장 지속 가능성이다.
다듬은 글
This graph shows the quarterly number of IPOs and the total amount in the United States. After hitting bottom while facing a bear market since 2021, it has been rebounding since then . It’s not really a cause for concern, but isn’t there a large-scale IPO coming up ? This is seen as a potential risk, as prominent companies such as SpaceX, Entropic, DataBRICS, and Kraken are aiming for an IPO this year .
So, if a large-scale IPO like this triggers a surge in market enthusiasm and causes other IPOs to crash, it is viewed as a potential signal that the bull market is coming to an end . Yes, hello. Ken Fisher has finally spoken directly about his outlook for 2026. Whenever I introduce Campial, I mention that he is the master who has been in the best form since 2022, so let's take a look at how he forecasts 2026 .
First, before diving into the 2026 outlook, let's take a look at how accurate Kempesher's 2025 forecast was. Kempesher's key forecasts for 2025 were as follows. At the time, the consensus for the 2025 annual outlook was that U.S. stocks would rise by about 12 to 13 percent . But at that time, Campaign said it would rise more than 12 to 13 percent .
I said that it could rise from the mid-to-late 10% range to over 20%. But the SNP 500 score was in the 16% range last year . Therefore, although it was wrong in that it did not rise by 20%, considering that it rose more than 12 or 13%, strictly speaking, I think it falls somewhere in between. Also, it was said that European stocks would perform better than US stocks in 2026 .
And that actually happened. So, I got this part right, and there was also a outlook for Korean stocks . Campisier said that Korean stocks have fallen excessively now, as the stock market fell into chaos and everyone was in confusion following the declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024. I said that Korean stocks will improve in the future .
So, Korean stocks were very good last year. It showed a rate of return that was practically ranked 1st or 2nd in the world. So I got this right too. yes. There are some things that are wrong . I was saying that value stocks would be good. While it is true that globally, indices with a high weighting of value stocks perform better than US stocks, if we look at the US stock market itself, growth stocks have risen more than value stocks .
Therefore, it can be seen that the statement claiming value stocks will be better in the US stock market is somewhat incorrect. So, it seems that the hit rate is quite good at this level. Then, how was the forecast for 26 years made? In the case of Campi, we expect the SMP 500 to rise by around the low 10% range this year .
They say Campision will show an average performance, but it is lower than last year. Because it rose 16% last year . And bull markets rise by about 22% on average. So it is lower than the bull market average. The figure in the low 20% range refers to the long-term average return of the S&P 500— that is, the average including both bull and bear markets—so it is expected to rise around that level .
So, why did they make this forecast? There is a reason why this campaigner releases its annual forecast late . This is because the core logic of Campisier 's forecasting is that expert predictions are always wrong. Campisier has been continuously studying expert forecasts since the past, and the result of his research was that most predictions eventually turn out to be wrong.
It’s not because these experts lack ability, but because stocks have the nature of being priced in advance. All known information is reflected in stock prices. However, experts with exceptional information processing skills gather all this data to make forecasts; since they predict based on what is already reflected in the price, there are times when their predictions are incorrect.
Furthermore, the opinions of these experts carry significant weight in the market . Therefore, when these people announce forecasts, there is an aspect where that is reflected in the stock price . That is why annual forecasts are wrong, and since annual forecasts are mostly wrong, if the figures go in the opposite direction of the related forecasts, then it would be correct.
So, when Campition makes correlation forecasts, he always waits for all institutions to release their projections, aggregates their forecasts to see what percentage they expect, and then decides whether the actual figure will be higher or lower than that . So, when I gathered the forecasts from institutions this time, there were exactly two that predicted a decline.
It is said that most of these forecasts were clustered around about 9% . Therefore, the actual result is either lower than 9% or falls like a small bound, but among these, Campisier receives a higher probability of rising. This is because the bull market has not ended yet. This is something I always mention whenever I discuss Campi, but there is John Templeton's bull market frame.
A bull market is born in pessimism, grows in skepticism, matures in optimism, and dies in euphoria. However, for this bull market to end, we need to reach the euphoria phase, but we are not at that phase yet. That is why there is a high probability that it will rise further . As for the reason why it is not at the Iria stage, wasn't this bubble medical issue a hot topic again last year ?
Also, since institutions are showing a somewhat weak forecast of 9%, it means that the atmosphere is not yet overheated . Then, is there no risk? There is a risk. Campishow has also left open the possibility of moving on to Euphoria this year . The characteristic of this stage is the IPO process. Because the market is so strong, there are phenomena where even completely nonsensical companies try to go public by jumping on this bandwagon.
So, it is common to judge that the bull market is winding down when an IPO comes to a halt. So, what is the current status of IPOs? This graph shows the quarterly number of IPOs and the total value in the United States. As you can see, after hitting bottom during the bear market since 2021, it has been rebounding since then.
It is not quite like 2020 or 2021, but at the current level, it can be seen as having returned to the level of 20 years ago. That is why it’s not really a cause for concern yet, but isn’t there a large-scale IPO coming up ? This is seen as a potential risk, as prominent companies such as SpaceX, Entropic, DataBRICS, and Kraken are aiming for an IPO this year .
So, if a large-scale IPO like this breaks the ice and market enthusiasm rises rapidly, followed by a flood of other IPOs, it is viewed as a potential signal that the bull market is coming to an end . Besides that, isn't it also very noisy due to political risks ? Then, what about political risk? Cam Fisher believes that the overall political risk is not significant.
First of all, looking at the global stage, there aren't many achievements this year that could shake things up . And even looking at this issue individually, while France is currently experiencing severe political turmoil that persists, aside from this, the remaining countries are relatively stable.
Therefore, it is difficult for France's political chaos alone to drive the global stock market into a bear market . Then what about the United States? With the U.S. currently in turmoil and midterm elections coming up this year, regarding the question of whether this is a problem, first of all, it is said that historically, stocks have risen whenever there are midterm elections.
This graph shows the stock price returns during the second and third years of this president's term— that is, the years with midterm elections . The shaded area is the quarter with the midterm elections, followed by the first and second quarters after the midterms. There is an 84% probability that stocks will rise in this fourth quarter with the midterms.
After the midterm ended, the probability that stocks would rise in the first and second quarters was 88%. Rather, stocks are rising, not falling, due to the political event of the midterm elections; however, just because there are midterms does n't mean they will rise unconditionally . There is a positive impact on stocks only if the election results result in a stalemate.
If the election results end in a stalemate, the probability of the major bills desired by that party passing decreases because no single party has taken control. Because mutual consultation is required to pass the bill . However, looking at the current election landscape, it is predicted that the Democratic Party's chances of winning are still quite high.
So, Campicho believes there is a high probability that the Democratic Party will take the House, and perhaps even the Senate; however, even if that happens, since the administration will be Republican, he anticipates that a stalemate between the Republicans and the Democrats will emerge. Then, if it rises by about the low 10% range this year, what will the specific market trend be like ?
Regarding which stocks are good, Camp Fisher predicted that non-U.S. stocks would be better than U.S. stocks and value stocks would be better than growth stocks again this year . So, the fact that a trend similar to last year continues is because the reason Secret Nation stocks continue to perform well is that value stocks are outperforming growth stocks .
Currently, interest rate curves are steepening globally . So, as short-term interest rates are falling relative to long-term rates, a steepening of the interest rate curve is quite beneficial for banks. Because if the interest rate curve narrows, the loan-deposit margin improves significantly for banks .
As the loan-deposit margin improves, they will likely extend more loans. Because the margin is good. If that happens, the loan growth rate increases, and an increase in the loan growth rate helps with economic recovery . Considering that there are now many cyclical stocks among these value stocks, this is a very positive development.
So, actually, the loan growth rate in the U.S. was 5.7% last year. The Eurozone was 3.6%, which was the highest figure in the last three years, and Canada was 3.9%. It is showing a very good trend, and while even Big Tech companies are borrowing money to invest these days, traditionally, it was common for growth stocks to receive investment and value stocks to take out loans .
So, given the nature of value stocks, if loans become easier to obtain, it is also good news for them. So, by doing this, there is an additional increase . That is why I believe that stocks from other countries with a higher proportion of value stocks, especially European stocks, will be better than those in the US, which has a high proportion of growth stocks.
There is also something called the cycle effect . It is said that when a bull market enters the mid-to-late stage, leading stocks usually shift from growth stocks to value stocks . But in this case, growth stocks fall and only value stocks rise. It is not that; rather, you can view it as both rising, but value stocks rising slightly better than growth stocks .
Of course, the U.S. hasn't been able to keep up with this trend since last year . As I mentioned earlier, growth stocks do have higher returns than value stocks. However, Campaign views things globally in that way, so please understand that he believes BB stocks will be better than U.S. stocks for that reason .
Yes, that’s all for today . Then let's run like masters again today . I was Eric from Eric's Master Lab. Then, I will see you again in the next video. thank you
댓글 0