저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 미국 인플레이션이 민간이 아니라 정부와 연준의 통화 팽창에서 비롯되며, 금리 인상만으로는 잡히지 않는다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 상황: 인플레이션은 약 8% 수준인데 연준 기준금리를 올려도 실질금리는 여전히 마이너스다. 미국채 수익률이 4%를 넘어도 물가보다 낮다고 본다. 저축과 소비 행태: 가계저축률이 2분기 기준 3.4%로 역대 최저 수준으로 떨어졌고, 사람들은 저축 대신 소비와 신용카드 빚을 늘리고 있다. 파월이 가계 저축이 충분하다고 한 말은 사실과 다르다고 비판한다. 볼커와의 비교: 1980년 볼커 시기에는 단기금리가 20%까지 올라 실질금리가 약 6.5%였기 때문에 소비 억제가 가능했지만, 지금은 그런 조건이 아니라 효과가 없다고 본다. 금리 인상의 역효과: 기업과 임대인의 이자 비용이 늘어 이것이 소비자 가격과 임대료에 전가되므로 금리 인상이 오히려 물가를 밀어올린다고 주장한다. 재정과 정책 딜레마: 국가부채가 31조 달러를 넘어섰고 이자 비용이 급증하고 있다. 경기가 둔화되면 세수는 줄고 지출은 늘어 재정적자가 커지며, 적자를 메우기 위한 통화 발행이 다시 인플레이션을 자극한다. 연준 전망: 연준은 금융위기를 피하기 위해 결국 인플레이션을 선택할 것이며, 피벗(금리 인하 전환)은 주식시장 붕괴나 채권시장 등 외부 충격이 있어야 나올 수 있다고 본다. 주가 랠리 기대는 피벗을 오히려 막는다고 말한다. 결론적으로 연준이 인플레이션을 해결할 수 없는 구조에 빠져 있으며, 돈을 찍고 금리를 낮추는 해법은 오히려 문제를 키운다는 것이 핵심 결론이다.
다듬은 글
the inflation doesn't come from the private sector it doesn't come from workers there is no spiral there's just the government the government sets the whole thing in motion the government inflates the money supply and the result is that prices go up whether they're the price of goods or the price of Labor everything goes up as a result of the inflation that the U.S government creates and so far the government has virtually made no Headway in its battle against inflation the FED is no closer to returning inflation to two percent than it was when it still had the FED funds rate at zero because despite all of these rate increases interest rates remain negative even the yields on the U.S treasuries which are all north of four percent are still negative when you're looking at eight percent inflation and you are not going to fight inflation with negative real interest rates remember the most important thing about fighting inflation with rate hikes is changing people's behaviors changing their savings and their spending habits but the FED has not done anything to alter those habits Americans are spending as fast as ever they're borrowing as fast as ever the household savings rate has now collapsed to its all-time record low by the end of the second quarter of this year the savings rate was all the way down to 3.4 percent and in fact I'm sure it's lower than that now as Americans continue to deplete their savings not only is this bad news because it indicates that American households are in worse shape to weather the recession but it also flies in the face of the comments made by Jerome Powell when he assured everybody that the reason the U.S economy was so strong the reason it could withstand higher interest rates was because households were so flush with savings well the facts completely belied the assertions made by Jerome Powell not only don't households have high savings they have record low savings proving once again that whenever Jerome Powell says something he either is completely wrong or is flat out lying but not only are U.S households rapidly depleting their meager savings they're also racking up credit card debt to buy stuff this is not how you fight inflation If the Fed was successful in fighting inflation savings would be going up credit card use would be going down you have to stop people from spending to bring inflation down and you have to encourage them to save because when you have more savings and less spending two things happen one the reduced demand for goods helps bring down the price of goods but the increased supply of savings results in more Capital Investments and more production of goods to bring up the future supply of goods so by raising interest rates high enough to encourage savings and discourage debt and consumption then you end up fighting inflation but the FED has not done that yes the FED has raised interest rates but not enough to bring them into positive territory and you're not going to encourage savings with negative interest rates you're still punishing people for saving with negative interest rates you're not going to discourage people from borrowing when they can borrow money at a rate that's lower than the inflation rate because they're being paid to borrow contrast that to what happened with Paul volcker in 1980 when short-term interest rates went all the way up to 20 percent the highest inflation got was 13.5 percent so you're talking six and a half percent real interest rates that encourage people not to spend money because if they save their money instead of spending it they could buy a lot more in the future because the interest that they were earning greatly exceeded the inflation rate that they were expecting so it made sense to defer consumption so that's why those higher interest rates worked but what the FED has done will not work because interest rates are still negative so people are still going to spend money as fast as they can why hoard it and spend it in the future because the interest that you're going to earn is nothing compared to the increase in prices and in fact most Americans are still earning nothing on their savings accounts because those interest rates haven't moved up now yes they can buy treasury bills and get four percent but four percent is nothing if prices are going to go up by eight percent you'd be dumb to put your money away to earn four percent just spend the money right now buy stuff before the prices go up and so if we're not going to bend that curve and alter Behavior you're not going to fight inflation and of course if we're not going to get an increase in the savings rate businesses don't have money to borrow and in fact the savings rate is plunging so the FED is not going to make any Headway in fighting inflation until we see a meaningful increase in the savings rate and a meaningful reduction in the amount of consumer credit and that's not going to happen unless we get a real increase in interest rates much bigger than we've seen now but that is impossible because the FED cannot do that without creating a financial crisis and if they do create a financial crisis we already know what the fed's going to do they're going to do exactly what the bank of England did they're going to do exactly what they've done in the past they will always choose inflation over financial crisis and they're going to make the same Choice again yes right now they can Bluff they can pretend that they're going to fight inflation no matter what that's because that no matter what hasn't happened yet and in fact look what happened with the stock market rally as soon as investors anticipated that the FED may be considering a pivot we had this huge rally in the stock market and therefore the FED had no reason to Pivot based on the markets because the rise in the stock market based on the anticipation of a pivot in effect takes the pivot off the table what has to happen is the markets have to throw in the towel on their expectation for a pivot the stock market needs to crash and the crash of the stock market May in fact bring on the pivot so if investors really want to Pivot they can't buy stocks in anticipation of that pivot they have to dump stocks expecting no pivot and then they'll get the pivot of course it's not just a stock market crash that could be the Catalyst for a pivot it could be something happening in the bond market or any other part of the economy you never know what that catalyst is going to be and that's why the FED can't really fight inflation it can't admit that so it has to pretend so it is Raising interest rates but not by enough to do the job but ironically one of the only things the Federal Reserve has accomplished with its rate hikes is its increased costs that businesses absorb and ultimately pass on to the consumer because all businesses have debt and now that debt is more expensive to service and that's just another cost just like raw materials just like labor and so those higher interest costs have to be factored in to Consumer prices and they are helping to push prices higher so every time the FED raises interest rates it's raising costs the same thing with rents you're a landlord you own some apartment buildings you also have some debt your interest costs are going up how do you recover that you raise your rents and your tenant ends up paying the higher interest rates in the form of higher rent just like any other costs that are going up the tenant has to cover those costs for the investment to be worthwhile for the landlord so the FED is actually moving further and further away from its goal of fighting inflation and of course it's not just consumers that continue to borrow and spend fueling inflation pressures but the government continues to do the same thing in fact this week for the first time the national debt soared passed 31 trillion dollars what are the reasons that the national debt is growing so rapidly is because the interest cost of servicing that debt is growing exponentially and so this is really adding to the current budget deficit visits and compounding the impact on the national debt and as the U.S economy weakens the government is going to see a reduction in its tax revenue at the same time it's going to see an increase in its expenditures and so that increases the national debt which is the problem when it comes to fighting inflation because as the FED drives the economy deeper into recession with its feigned inflation fight raising interest rates to fight inflation pushes the economy deeper into recession which pushes the budget deficits up but also higher interest rates in and of themselves make the budget deficits higher and so these bigger budget deficits actually exert inflationary pressures in the economy because either the government has to borrow the money to finance the deficits from the private sector or the FED has to Pivot monetize those deficits print even more money creating even more inflation so the FED is situation where it can't fight inflation because by fighting inflation it creates recession which creates even more inflation see what people don't seem to understand is the fed's solution to every problem has been inflation whenever the country has gotten into trouble whether it's a financial crisis a recession coveted 19 the fed's solution has always been inflation well now that inflation has become the problem how can the FED solve the problem of inflation with inflation it can't all it could do is print money lower interest rates but now money Printing and low interest rates have become the problem
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