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uh we do believe it is that big. Uh so if you look at the revenue growth the last five years, it's compounded at roughly 48% per year and that and that was uh as you recall when Tesla was experiencing a quite a bit of controversy. Um our forecast for the next uh the next 10 years is uh in the 50 to 60% range.
Depends if you take our bull or our bear case. uh and there are a few reasons there there there are four barriers to entry that uh seem to have gotten higher uh in Tesla's favor. The first is battery technology. So Tesla is the only car manufacturer um with the exception of uh just a couple in China.
uh the only car manufacturer that decided to ride down the cost curve of the consumer electronics industry using batteries that we find in our laptops, our cell phones. And when Tesla decided to do that, auto manufacturers actually laughed at it as did auto analyst uh because there were well um advertised or publicized u batteries battery blowups on on uh airplanes and so there was a banning of that kind of uh battery.
So because of that it its costs are so much lower today. the cost of its battery or its battery pack system uh is so much lower than other auto manufacturers that if they really want to compete with Tesla, they're going to have to lose money in electric vehicles while their gas powered vehicle sales are falling.
Uh that the alternative will be less power or less range. uh so that we're seeing a lot of permutations around that. So battery uh still 3 to four years ahead in terms of cost declines of other other auto manufacturers who decided to use lithium ion uh pouch technology as opposed to the cylindrical batteries that Tesla uses.
The second barrier to entry and this is this I think is the critical one from a valuation and a growth point of view. Tesla is the only auto manufacturer to have designed its own chip. Tesla is taking a leaf from Apple's book. If you remember in the day, Apple was the upstart. Nokia, Motorola, and Ericson were the winners in the cell phone space.
Apple was this upstart that had the point of view, Steve Jobs, uh that that this was not just a phone. It was going to become others didn't follow. They didn't have their own chip. They didn't have the vision. And uh and today, even today, when Apple's market share has gone down to 12%, it takes most of the profits out of the global uh out of the global uh uh smartphone market.
Um and then the other two barriers to entry. So the the artificial intelligence chip, why is that important? This is all about autonomous travel. Uh and it's the only one doing this. Uh and we believe that the other barrier to entry they have is the billions upon billions upon billions of miles of realworld driving data that Tesla has accumulated so that with its AI expertise.
Andre Karpathy is the expert in autonomous uh transportation. Um he they now have more corner cases to train their systems on than any other company. It's not going to be possible for these companies to catch up because Tesla already has a million more than a million robots including my Model 3 roaming around collecting data and sending it back every day.
And then the other barrier to entry, which I'm surprised this one still exists, is overthe-air software updates. I got my Model 3 in 2018 and I've never had to take it in uh for a problem. Uh Tesla apparently has diagnosed any problems I've had and corrected them uh before I see them the or experienced them.
The only problem I've had is a nail in a tire and of course software could not correct that. But that was it. Uh and so those four barriers to entry have given Tesla the lead. Our base uh our base case is $3,000 in uh in five years. uh from $800 today. Uh and our confidence in that has grown because what we're seeing now is Tesla able to scale EV manufacturing in a way that no one else except perhaps BYD in China.
No one else is doing this yet. And Tesla had to go through a huge learning curve to get there. This is not like uh the manufacturing of traditional autos. It's a completely different game. Uh and so we believe that Tesla's market share uh we used to say we thought Tesla would take 25% of the electric vehicle market in 5 years.
Now we're saying we believe Tesla will take 25% of the total vehicle market in 5 years. And we think electric will be nearly half of total vehicles uh sold. Even when cars underperform, Tesla has multiple lanes to win in the future. A major moment this month was Morgan Stanley downgrading Tesla for the first time in 2 years.
They shifted from buy to hold, signaling that Tesla's valuation may already be pricing in future dreams, robo taxes, AI, and robotics before those ideas have truly materialized. They also expect 2026 vehicle deliveries to be lower than previously predicted. It doesn't mean Tesla isn't innovative. It just means the stock might not have as much upside in the short term as Wall Street once believed.
So what happens next? There are two possible paths. In the bearish scenario, global EV demand stays weak. Competition intensifies, margins stay tight, and Tesla continues to struggle. The big bets, full self-driving, robotics, robo taxes take time. And if Tesla can't deliver soon, valuation could take a hit.
But in the bullish scenario, Tesla leverages its strength in China and continues expanding energy, software, and robotics. Any breakthrough in autonomy or robotics could reignite growth and push the stock back upward. For now, here are three things to watch. First, global EV demand trends, especially in the US and Europe.
If they get worse, Tesla will feel it immediately. Second, Tesla's non-car businesses, energy, software, and robotics could become the company's safety net if vehicle sales stay weak. Third, regulatory updates around self-driving and AI. One approval or one setback could drastically shift Tesla's future.
Tesla is at a crossroads. The ride ahead could be bumpy or it could be the setup for a major comeback. Only time and execution will tell. Thanks for watching and stay tuned for more updates. And for Tesla is back in the headlines and not all of it is good. From disappointing sales in Europe to a major Wall Street downgrade, yet the stock still has believers.
In the next 5 minutes, we break down the winds, the warnings, and what might come next. Stay tuned. Kesler's stock has had a turbulent 2025. Shares are still far below last year's highs. Deliveries and revenue did show some strength, but profitability continues to weaken. In the last quarter, Tesla reported higher revenue, but profit dropped again, marking the fourth straight quarter of shrinking profits.
So, yes, Tesla is still massive, but the fundamentals aren't as strong as they once looked. Revenue is up, but profits are slipping and investors are starting to notice. The external challenges are stacking up. Europe has been a major trouble spot with recent data showing huge drops in registrations.
A 58% fall in France and 49% in Denmark. Even the US is seeing demand cool off with rising inventories and slower sales. Tesla tried cutting prices and releasing cheaper variants, but that's squeezing margins even more. Cutting prices only helps if demand stays strong, and right now it isn't. But there is at least one bright spot.
China. Tesla's Shanghai factory continues to support global volume. And remember, Tesla is not just a car company anymore. Their energy and storage businesses, software services, and long-shot bets like robotics and autonomous driving keep long-term believers excited. It said,
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