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hello everyone this is Evan here from the trade risk on Friday December 16th with a weekend Market recap video we are first going to cover the current market environment we're then going to move on to some of the other major markets sector analysis and then finish off with some individual names as a reminder if you like these videos and you haven't yet subscribed to our YouTube channel we'd love it if you did uh if you click that subscribe button in the bottom right hand corner all it does is keep you up to date with all of the latest uh Market Recaps that we publish about two or three times a week that way you don't miss any moving forward uh thank you for that and with that let's move into markets today uh and this week S&P 500 on Friday here finished lower 78 basis points but keep in mind this went X dividend today this ETF when X dividend which means it looks a little more pessimistic than it otherwise should if if we go to the cash Market SPX you can see we did finish lower on the day but just marginally so 18 basis points to the downside and uh if we take a look at the weekly chart let's start there with some of the broad averages S&P 500 you can see finished flat on the week just down slightly and notice the topping tail here we tried to push up early in the week to the upside and that strength was faded and we ultimately closed exactly where we opened uh the iwm actually did get some selling pressure that came through this week finished lower by 1.74% and then the q's and the Dow Jones both both finished uh basically flat slightly higher on the week so with that let's go back to the S&P 500 go back to the Daily time frame and take a look at this action a little bit closer Monday was this session right here you can see it was an indecisive day Tuesday we got that upside pop Wednesday was fed day and fed day uh did bring uh about some higher rates the FED did decide to raise interest rates by a quar perc clearly not that much of a surprise to the market it was effectively priced in and you could know that because we didn't see any large outsize disruptive move on Wednesday it was pretty orderly orderly yes it was a sell day um but it wasn't anything um too extraordinary here Thursday we had an inside day and then Friday a little more weakness so um when you look at this picture here there's really not too much to say we're pulling off of all-time highs uh this is a healthy Market we're in an uptrend Trend uh both supportive by the daily time frame and the longer term weekly monthly charts uh and things look good right now we're going to be interested to see how much more do we pull back um do we get a more meaningful pullback in price or is this a consolidation through time that's what we're in the process of measuring right now uh for now you can see we're now 3 days off of the all-time highs we're back to the 8 period EMA we were back at this 8 period EMA uh at the end of November early December as we consolidated for about 5 days before we started to push higher so maybe this time we get closer to the 20 period EMA if we continue to have another day or two of weakness into next week uh that would maybe get you closer to about this 12 223 level uh but again that's all speculation we really need to just continue to see um what this Market has in store for us you can see volume was pretty high here on Friday but we did have quadruple witching which was uh essentially a lot of options contracts uh expiring today um and that could uh could sort of uh influence that end of week volume there so that's the picture not too much else to say about it um we really just need to kind of sit tight and measure this I mean for us the way we're looking at this Market uh we've been pretty um uh on message here that we were uh interested in in selling out the majority of our exposure into these recent highs Monday and Tuesdays when we did uh sort of the the final uh amount of our selling there from positions that we were capturing this recent up leg with and uh we continue to remain pretty light we haven't really put on any new positions since we sold um lightened up on Tuesday we're kind of just waiting to see what this Market uh has in store how it's going to digest the FED right we do know that now how it's going to finish off the week we do know that now um so now you know heading into next week it'll be you know potentially more actionable uh point for us um to see if this Market can start to break above the prior day's highs can start to get going again if breath can stay supportive all the little clues that we're going to be looking at next week before we start to dip our toes back in here on the long side um so that's the way we're playing it still got a couple of positions on but very light and cash heavy uh iwm let's go there next you can see you know really the same story a lot of strength here right a market that's near all-time highs we're pulling off of those highs notice now we're day five off of the all-time highs so a little bit more of an extended uh consolidation already Tak place and look at the past 3 days you can see these kind of topping tailes every time we' got back up to about this 137 level in the iwm so selling pressure coming in a little bit towards the end of the day kind of driving us off of those highs that's a near-term level that you can pay attention to so if we start to break above 137 and a quar and hold above it close above it uh then that might give you your signal that we're ready to come back here and retest those all-time highs NASDAQ 100 uh did have some early strength this week broke Above This multi-week range that was very impressive and then we kind of went sideways high and tight until Friday where we kind of broke back down retested this breakout level so it's going to be very interesting to see can the NASDAQ 100 hold this 119 area it's going to be very important if that leadership role is going to continue um so we want to make sure that that happens for now we're still above the 8 period still above the 20 period breakout Still In Motion uh but we don't want to see it weaken too much more into next week so that is uh sort of the look here at at some of the major averages let's move into some of the other markets now uh TLT let's go there next you can see continues to slide lower again we did have that um we did have the Fed rate hike out on Wednesday that did cause this cell bar this engulfing bar to the downside but we haven't yet followed through on that move we haven't been able to break uh the lows around 117 or so we've been uh just kind of chugging above them for the past few days and uh that's the picture still a lot of momentum to the downside um and and we don't really have a a a a signal yet that it's over so we're going to have to just kind of stay in limbo here respect the downtrend respect the momentum um and wait for you know a little more sign that um that Bott that that a bottom is actually U being put in uh GLD similar comments Wednesday really accelerated uh the selling to the downside we talked about that in our midweek video was this going to be some type of capitulary move or was this just going to be an acceleration to the downside so far uh a little tough to tell we did get follow through Thursday but then we got this pop higher here on Friday so once again momentum still very much to the downside tough chart to want a bottom pick not seeing a lot of evidence that this is is is over uh this selling uh wave of selling is over but you know we we have Unwound and and sold off pretty hard for you know basically a three or 4we move so um going to be a lot of kind of tug-of-war here uh just cleaner setups out there for me not too interested in GLD right now silver uh had a very uh sort of um you know scary uh gap down here on Thursday silver had been very quietly consolidating and sort of outperforming GLD just just on a relative basis over the past three or so weeks until Thursday when it had this uh sort of nasty 5 almost 5% gap down Friday it basically um you know it it bounced just a little bit but almost almost ended flat on the week so once again momentum still to the downside US dollar really putting a lot of pressure on some of these Commodities as it really started to ignite to the upside break above and it broke above uh these these recent highs here so quite a bit of um strength here in the dollar broke above multi-year highs uh really so um we we'll have to see you know if this trend continues here uh commodity is certainly going to have uh a difficult Road road ahead of them uh Uso getting into some of other Commodities had a pretty um you know resilient week All Things Considered finished up 1% you can see had a nice you know little double bottom here perhaps on the weekly time frame with with um with with the week of December the 9th and uh it did get a little bit of a bounce back here on Friday so once again if we can if it can start to move Above This 1175 1180 level where it's failed uh just earlier last week and then back here in October that's going to be the mark to sort of get us above there and and if we can uh then I would imagine you'd see uh a good amount of momentum and upside tractions start to set in here in Uso finally un continues uh well this week actually started to to get a meaningful pullback uh and meaningful in in you know certainly uh a very important way almost M almost 10% to the downside granted it had about a 40% move move to the upside so 10% is is certainly a relative number but uh you can see definitely pulled off of those highs back to those mid eight levels back into the middle of this channel uh if we want to sort of an you know take a look at price in this kind of rising Channel ever since March of this year when it bottomed out so um un continues to just sort of trade in here uh nice buy volume over the past uh four weeks or so take a look at the um you know volume at the bottom of this chart here so uh encouraging development and and again um can't say enough about that volume take a look at all of that um upside volume that came through throughout the month of November highest levels we've seen even more so than when we bought them back in March so something to pay attention to uh maybe you know the there's there's something more to this recent move here in natural gas that we should keep our eye on um and with that let's let's let's move on to some of the sector analysis uh iyt let's start there so Transportation average uh has been been a strong leader uh you know ever since the election when it got this this this uh second leg kind of breakout higher and now we're finally starting to see the first meaningful correction here very healthy action again uh as you start to flag off of these all-time highs uh very constructive keep an eye on this on this uh on this downtrend line that's what you want to be paying attention to next week financials very similar situation starting to put in some healthy digestion these have been the leaders recently xli a little more uh well a little sloppier and and maybe a little bit of a of a of a faster pullback here you can see all the way to last week's lows based on this weekly candle so xli have to see if that can stabilize here around this 20 period uh and then again the home builder or materials names xlb continues to flag out here off of those all-time highs so some very healthy consolidation here in some of those uh previous leadership groups on the downside or and in a group that saw great relative strength this week is biotech or Healthcare more broadly if we go to the weekly chart you can see actually finished up 1% is Healthcare and if we go to biotech you can see same thing up about 1% so these have been the dogs recently and we did get a little bit of rotation and resilient trade uh this week in a number of these names so that's something to see if you're going to you know heading into the end of the year maybe the worst of the selling is done here in some of these um you know more speculative IBB uh biotech names and maybe we can get some rotation in there so I'd want to pay attention to that and then on the downside you know xlu also had a nice week right this had been the dogs um over the past several weeks and months uh but this week it did have a resilient week as well xlu and even xlp getting a little bit of a mounts back finished flat on the week so um that is sort of the the the quick look there at some of the sector analysis and now let's look at some individual stocks we're going to look at just a few here Facebook is one uh you can see it's having tough times getting a back above the this 121 12150 area you can see a lot of um intraday attempts But ultimately we can't get a close above that level it kind of coincides with this downtrend line so you get a little bit of a Line in the Sand here to use if you're a day trader you know this 12150 level might unlock some intraday momentum uh and if you're if you're looking a swing Facebook and looking for this bottom to sort of hold and and and act as um you know a near-term bottom you'd want to see us get a close above that 12150 level pay attention to that next week Microsoft uh been talking about you know sort of my love here for Microsoft of H of out of the uh big cap High beta Tech names and um continues to act very well still above the 8 period EMA you can see just coming in and flagging here off of highs looks pretty good look for a second move here if you're not involved in it above $63 looks fairly actionable to me Tesla also getting some love this week finished up 5.36% right at the highs of the week snapping this downtrend line that's been in place uh ever since late August or beginning of August uh and you can see it once again there closing at the high still you know a lot of Supply previous Supply around here around this 200 level but uh it is trying to get get the ball rolling here to the upside so uh for you guys who have been watching Tesla for a long time you might get um you know now now might be the time to start paying attention to it a little bit closer uh Alibaba let's look at that one next you can see it's kind of teetering here on a Ledge uh this support had been holding right around right under $90 you can see that's starting to look like it wants to give way here late last late this week as it made a new closing low um so Alibaba a little bit in trouble maybe it's a false signal if we get a quick move back above $90 then maybe we have a false kind of breakdown that we can trade against uh but for now you got to be careful there and let's end it off with Netflix which uh had been acting pretty well here and uh did trade off a little bit on Friday but still continues pretty resilient and holding up uh quite well in this space you can see to the top end of this range uh 12850 is more or less where the all-time Highs are a little above that actually but uh that's certainly where we stalled out here in late October and we're quickly getting back above that level now so uh let's see if that upside traction can continue it's kind of messy uh it's it's not trending super cleanly it's doing a lot of back and forth and kind of grinding sideways so it's tough you got to maybe trade this a little bit wider of a stop but Netflix um you know has been getting has been getting work done here on the upside uh for the past couple of weeks so that uh that'll do it I think we'll end it there with Netflix so thank you guys uh as always for tuning in hope you have a great weekend and I will talk to you soon
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