저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 저금리·저부도 시대가 끝나고 시장이 구조적 전환기에 들어섰으니 포트폴리오를 그에 맞게 재편해야 한다. 과거 환경 설명: 2009~2021년 기간 연준 기준금리가 대부분 0% 수준이었고, 쉽게 돈을 빌릴 수 있어 파산·부도가 적었다. 1980년 이후 업계에 들어온 대부분의 투자자는 금리 하락만 경험했다. 전환의 의미: 금리 환경이 바뀌었다는 점을 인지해야 하며, 이를 중요한 피벗으로 봐야 한다. 이전과 다른 자산 배분이 필요할 수 있다고 주장하나, 이 견해에 대한 지지는 충분하지 않았다고 언급. 부도 메커니즘: 기업 부도는 주로 만기 도래 시 차환에 실패하면서 발생한다. 차환 조건이 악화(금리 상승, 신용도 하락, 대출 여력 감소)되면 더 많은 기업이 흔들린다. 하이일드 채권의 장기 평균 부도율은 약 4% 수준이며, 최근 15년간 이 수준에 도달한 해가 없었다. 향후 부도 증가가 예상된다. 예시: 8억 달러를 5%에 빌린 기업이 차환 시 5억 달러를 8%에 빌리게 되면 약 3억 달러의 자금 공백이 생긴다. 미국 부도 리스크: 미국이 채무 불이행한 전례는 없고, 달러는 기축통화이므로 단기적으로 무제한 발행 가능. 다만 향후 방향은 불확실하며, 부채한도를 협상 도구로 쓰는 것은 매우 위험하다고 경고. 투자 철학: 투자는 변수가 많아 불확실하며 고정된 해법이 없다. 훌륭한 투자자도 60~80% 정도만 맞힌다. 미래 예측 능력을 과신하지 말아야 하며, 갈브레이스의 말을 인용해 평범한 투자자는 자신이 미래를 모른다는 사실을 배워야 한다고 강조. 좋은 뉴스가 곧 주가 상승을 의미하지 않으며, 시장 참여자의 심리적 반응이 가격을 결정한다. 출연자 전망 및 종목 언급: 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 없음. 전반적으로 고금리 환경에서 신용 리스크와 부도 증가를 경계하는 입장.
다듬은 글
we had a low interest rate environment which made life very easy for borrowers asset owners it was easy to run a business the economy did well we had the longest bull market in history the longest economic recovery in history we had very low incidents of default and bankruptcy H it was an easy world and if you read articles about for example Silicon Valley Bank they talk about the Easy Money environment and the main point of C change is we're no longer in an easy money environment and the FED funds rate was Zero probably the majority of the time in the 09 to 21 period and that's inappropriate it stimulates you can't live on a shot of adrenaline every morning for 13 years if you came into this business since 1980 which is almost everybody you have only seen declining interest rates or ultra low interest rates people tend to say well that's what it's been for 40 years that's normal that's what it's going to be but no you have to recognize it that's why I call the SE change cuz you have to recognize this is an important pivot some people come up to me and say yes you're right interest rates are are low nobody has said this is a major change as you say it is but you know if it's the change I think it is then what you should have in your portfolio going forward can be very different from what it has been and so far I have not had resounding support for that position this period of 09 through 21 easy period easy to get money so most bankruptcies don't occur because you have a business and it loses money loses money loses money goes away it occurs because a business borrows money times get tough and when it goes to refinance that loan nobody ever repays their debts they just refinance it and when they go to the bank to refinance it the bank says you're not as good of credit as you used to be or we don't have as much money to lend as we used to have or our standards are higher so it really comes from most uh bankruptcies or defaults are associated with a maturity which is unmet and I think that when you go through a period when it's super easy to raise money for any purpose or no purpose and you go into a period when it's difficult to raise money even for a good purpose clearly many more companies are going to founder the long-term average default rate on higho bonds for example is close to 4% for the last 45 years we didn't have any years in the last 15 at 4% uh it was a very low period And in the coming years there will be some the way I sum it up I said you found a company to buy you went to the bank they said we'll lend you 800 million at 5% now the loan is up for Renewal you go in they say fine we'll lend you 500 million at 8% so you you have less money and your cost of capital is higher and you have a $300 million hole that you can't fill there's never been a bankruptcy of the US or a country like it so we don't know what's going to happen right now the US dollar is what's called The Reserve currency of the world and we get to print them in the short run we can print as many as we want and as long as that's the case uh we're not going to go under it's like if you have an unlimited checking account you can pay your credit card bills without limitation we just don't know where it's going that's the problem uh using a default as a negotiating tool is very very dangerous but we have it's the Golden Goose we have this Reserve currency status because the dollar is the safest currency in the world and the US economy is the best why would you jeopardize that I I wouldn't tell anybody what they should do what I would say is this investing is a fascinating field because uh there are so many variables that have to be juggled and so many uncertainties that have to be dealt with it's stimulating uh the solutions are never static yesterday's solution will not work tomorrow it keeps you on your toes on the other hand because of the imprecision you fail a lot the great investors are right 60% 70% maybe 80% of the time if you're the kind of person who has to be right all the time you shouldn't be in investing people believe in the ability to predict the future either their ability or others that they can identify and in general uh I agree with John Kenneth galbreth who said There are two kinds of forecasters the ones who don't know and the ones who don't know they don't know so I think the that the average person has to learn that they don't know what the future holds and nobody else does either the other thing is people believe that there's kind of a direct and mechanical linkage if a company has a good event the the Securities do well if they have a bad event like earnings is Securities do poorly but that's not the case because there's a intermediate step which is people's reaction so it's not just whether the event was positive it's how people reacted to the event that determines the impact on the security prices and that's two different things so you can't forget the the psychological and human factor you know I received Snippets from hanging around with smart people uh I didn't have a single Mentor uh I read a lot and I was uh fortunate to associate with people who were generous with their knowledge and shared it with me and that's why I write the memos to share it with others
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