저자: 미상 · 외국인
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피터 린치의 멜런펀드(1977~1990, 연 29.2%)와 S&P500 대비 초과수익을 소개하고, 린치의 원칙(잘 아는 분야 투자, 텐배거, 소형주 선호, 기관 보유 낮은 종목)과 린치 전략(2000~2022 연 18.3% vs S&P500 6.4%)을 설명. 영상 제작자는 자신은 이 전략을 따르지 않고 Terry Smith 스타일을 따른다고 밝히며 투자 권유가 아님을 명시.
다듬은 글
the mellan fund was the best performing fund from 1977 all the way up to 1990 as you can see in the graph below it shows how much $1 invested in either the mellan fund or the S&P 500 would have returned after the 133-year period if you had invested $1 in the mellan fund in early 1977 by the end of 1990 you would have had $28.4 whereas if you had invested $1 in the P 500 at the start of 1977 by the same time period you would have had $660 which shows clear outperformance by focusing on growth stocks the mellan fund was over was able to perform over four times better than the S&P 500 over the same time period but who is the man behind this incredible outperformance well it's none other than the famous Peter Lynch otherwise known as the father of 10 Baggers if you had read one of his books you will know what I'm referring to he always mentioned in all of his books that all investors have an edge and he is a clear believer that retail investors us individuals have a big big advantage over funds because of two major things the first one being that we have more freedom CH to choose our investments we don't have to report do annual figures or tell anyone what we're buying and the second one is that we're able to by smaller cap stocks which usually have higher growth rates so while being the head of the mellan fund he was able to return 29.2% per year from 1977 all the way up to 1990 marking this as the best performing Fund in all mankind history so he was a firm believer of three principles the first two are combined being invest in what you know and local knowledge he said that everyone has an area of expertise for for example I'm a big fan of sports so I should focus in sports companies look at companies I like for example Nike or smaller ones that are just starting for example Top Golf well it's not just starting but it's a smaller one and invest of them if I like the product if I like their financial analysis if I see them expanding and obtaining high growth rates and the third principle is that 10 Baggers are everywhere 10 bagger is a principle it's a kind of word he used a lot it finds a stock which is able to multiply its value by 10 so return a 1,000% return over x amount of period so he said that it's obvious that studying history and philosophy was much better preparation for the stock matter than say that for the stock market sorry then say studying statistics so he believes that statistics do not make a lot of sense and that the stock market is a lot more based on common sense so he used five main important metrics this is just a representation of kind of his Investments he didn't follow a specific framework he's known for being one of the investors who had the most amount of stocks under his portfolio so it would be crazy to replicate his portfolio but some of the main metrics he used in selecting stocks we have replicated here the first one being that he never ever invested in utility companies and if he did they weren in great Investments and this is because of two things they are usually very slow growing companies and they are found in highly regulated Industries so for example water companies or for example energy companies there tend to be slow growth I'm not talking about renewable energy talking about energy companies the ones that carry the energy to houses for example there's slow growth and they are highly regulated so they're not good to invest in second one is that he used to focus on smaller caps these are companies that were not bigger than 1 billion but of course years ago finding companies that were smaller than 1 billion was a lot easier than nowadays and this is because there are more growth opportunities ahead so for example if you're a company that has revenues of 200 million increasing them up by 10 times from 200 million to 2 billion is a lot simpler than for example if you're apple and you have revenues of 1 trillion and you want to times them by 10 because you have a bigger addressable Market than the one you already have the second one is the third one sorry is the 12 Monon trailing PE ratio so you want this to be in the top 25% on the industry which makes it a lot more attractive the third one the fourth one is the EPS growth which is that the fiveyear average EPS growth should be greater than 15% and the final one is that the institutional ownership should be around in the bottom half of the industry this is because you want to focus on those companies that actually nobody has heard of Institutions haven't picked up on them because when they do they will push the stock price up and you will be inside the stock enjoying the ride up so by using these five main principles and then some other parameters I'm going to be showing you in the following slide they created the Lynch strategy which is a strategy kind of trying to replicate what investing Peter Lynch used to do from 1977 to 1990 with the mellan fund as you can see it has beaten the S&P 500 by a lot it has not managed to get to the same levels as Peter Lynch got to but it has been pretty good at beating the S&P 500 as you can see the annualized return for the Peter Lynch strategy from 2000 to 2022 was around 18.3% whereas the S&P 500's annualized return was around 6.4% in terms of how to valueing a stock Peter Lynch has not disclosed a lot of information I believe he wasn't a maniac at trying to find which stock was at an attractive price whenever he found a good stock a very good company which had high growth rates and high return on Equity he would just jump in without worrying too much about valuations because he's one of those investors which focused on 20-year investment not two or three months or one year investing one thing he did look at was the historic PE ratio which is just getting a graph of how the PE ratio for the company has evolved where it's sitting at and where it has been sitting at for the previous two three years for example that way you can see whether it is undervalued or overvalued in regards to its historic trading prices he believes that the pricing as well is not too important so he focuses more more on two factors the first one being the 5-year EPS growth to see the growth rates of the company and if they're sustainable and then the five-year return on equity which is important because it shows how well the company is at creating value for investors so these are the eight things he used to look at a lot more things but this is what was used for the creating the Lynch strategy so the first one is one that he said in the books which is that the business should be simple enough so that you can explain the business to a 10-year-old without using complex ideologies meaning that you should understand the company so it's better to understand for example one of his biggest Investments and best returning Investments was dunking donuts which is what selling donuts and selling coffees so that is a lot simpler to understand than for example getting into all microchips understanding which machines one company is creating and all that if you understand it that's great if you don't maybe you should stick to other businesses because you will never know what's going on in that world and you will not know when those the fundamentals for that company are deteriorating or not but apart from that he said that he's looking at institutional ownership the lower the better he's always looking at the number of analysts covering the stock the lower the better so you can see here the 26 week price percentage change should also be lower the better you can see here that he likes looking at undervalued stocks a little bit he likes looking at secretive stocks stocks that are not being covered by the media a lot stocks that don't have a lot of coverage by analysts that are not being backed by institutions and once he has a list of those companies just looking at the fundamentals the growth rates and the return on Equity he also talked about having a healthy liability to asset ratio and a solid 5-year EPS growth compared to its industry as well as a 5-year average return on equity which should be acceptable and higher than the industry finally he looks at the 20-day exponential moving average which should be over the 200 exponential moving average this is more of a technical term and I don't believe Peter Lynch used this but it was used to create the Lynch strategy and so far since we've seen it's working pretty well so it should do no harm to actually apply that to the filters of your screeners and then Peter Lynch basically said that the key to a great investment is the combination of first of all a high 5-year EPS growth which usually represents a strong competitive advantage and a desirable product second thing is a 5year return on equity which of course is essential when a company is trying to create value for the investor which is what US investors should be looking for and the third one of course an attractive historic PE ratio so you can buy the company at an attractive price however this one I don't believe he was too keen on this all together combines to create a great investment M with high returns but before we move on I have to recommend you and advise you of course I'm not a financial adviser all the videos I do in these channel are for myself to learn from to push myself to do stock analysis to learn about Investors and just to inform myself so don't take this as Financial advice I actually do not follow his strategy I follow more of a Terry Smith style but I'm just putting this out here to learn more about Peter Lynch since I really really like him as an investor and for you guys also to learn about the different investment techniques that great investors have had throughout their times anyways said that thank you for watching this has been the free cash flow the cash flow compounder as always you can join the free patreon in the link below for extra content and if you click the link in the bio you can 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