저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
영상의 핵심 결론은 주식시장에서는 늘 걱정거리가 있으니 공포에 휘둘리지 말고 기업의 재무제표와 실질 스토리를 보라는 것이다. 1930년대 대공황은 주식시장 폭락이 원인이 아니라 경기 침체 후 연준의 금리 인상이 겹친 결과라고 설명하며, 1850년 이후 대공황 유사 침체가 여러 차례 있었다고 언급한다. 1950년대에는 대공황 재발과 핵전쟁 공포로 사람들이 주식 대신 통조림, 발전기, 대피소 등에 돈을 쓰는 경향이 있었다고 회고한다. 개인투자자들은 가전이나 항공권은 신중히 고르면서 주식은 버스에서 들은 말만으로 큰돈을 넣는 경우가 많아 위험하다고 지적한다. 좋은 종목 선별 기준으로 기업의 실적 개선 스토리, 재무상태표(부채·현금), 턴어라운드 가능성을 제시하며, 'Nvidia'처럼 발음하기 어려운 생소한 회사라도 기준에 맞으면 살펴보라고 말한다. 예시로 TJX, Stop and Shop, Analog Devices 등이 크게 오른 사례를 들고, 구조적으로 쇠퇴하는 산업(섬유, 백화점 체인 Sears·Kmart, IBM 둔화 등)은 피하라고 조언한다. 은행위기나 산업 쇠퇴가 있어도 업황이 나쁘다는 것만으로 투자 이유가 되지 않으며, 상황이 나아지기를 기다리는 것이 낫다고 결론짓는다. 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측이나 목표가는 언급되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
there's always something to worry about this is the difference this is what happens in the stock market because see everybody's got the brain power to do well in the stock market questions whether you have the stomach for it that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about I grew up I went to school grew up with a kid in the 50s in the decade in the 50s this is big Theory that the Depression was caused by a stock market crash totally wrong less than one percent of Americans own stocks in 29.
we have this big time recession in fact it was a depression that's what it wasn't caused by the stock market the economy went down and Federal Reserve raised interest rates and we had a big time depression in fact we had several depressions like that from 1850 on we had this was only one of about eight depressions since 1850.
but people in the people thought the only reason we got the Depression was World War II and they said once we get back next time every session we're gonna have a depression and it's gonna be a Great Depression I never understood that adjective in front of depression it ought to be crummy depression or bad depression but it's a Great Depression I never quite quite understood that one the uh so people are buying sucks in the 50s because they thought another Great Depression is going to happen in addition it was very scared about nuclear warheads and nuclear war in the 50s people building Fallout shelters stocking canned goods there's something about going to Vermont building a fallout shelter putting canned goods in it that you don't buy Minnesota Mining or you don't buy you some code I may just the syllogism just doesn't work out the gym buying uh lots of water buying a shotgun buying frozen food that will stay in the freezer with your own generator and you're looking at growth stocks it seemed to work out and I remember in the 50s I mean I remember literally in classes I was in elementary school in the 50s and they would come in they'd have one of these Airaid drills somebody yell a hat would come and they blow a whistle and you get under your desk even then I says I don't think this is going to do a lot of good you know yeah but people are worried about a depression and nuclear war in the 50s well I think people they're investing individual stocks it's it's sad they're careful when they buy a refrigerator or an airplane flight they're careful over their money and they'll hear about a stock on the bus and they'll put five or ten thousand dollars on it they have no idea what they do so you really got to be careful look at the company look at the balance sheet what is the reason the stock should be higher the suckers going up is not a good reason well I think looking for something different look for something that's a good story I mean who would guess TJX a local company would have gone up 50-fold or Stop and Shop would go up 10-fold or or Analog Devices or Nvidia I couldn't pronounce Nvidia so you have to find a company that's either a turnaround or a company that's going to grow like Panera or you know Family Dollar stores I'm not saying that buys now but that's what's made our you know Sears is rolled over so you know Southern Kmart's rolled over IBM slowed down but we've had newcomers come along I mean that's the nature you have to be looking for new companies and look at the balance sheet if you can add five and five and get reasonably close to ten you should be able to look at a balance you say here's two depressed companies they've gone from 50 to three one comes good three of them in cash and no debt one's got three remain in debt no cash which one are you going to buy I mean that not too hard to do you know we hear your terrible financial crisis in 99-1 I think every almost every major Bank in Texas went under Bank of New England one of the oldest banks in the country went under it's like you know you know in 0809 the banks were doing these no doc loans and second mortgages and Home Improvement loans that people are buying boats with it now the bank's being much more careful so we've gone through other crises some banks will go under you know 400 went under after 0809 no I saw the textile industry deteriorate I was recommend all the stocks in the way down I saw the soon industry go away Industries the industries can go from terrific to terrible there's a great expression that it's excellent industry that helped me a lot textile industry yeah it's always darkest before pitch black just anything things are terrible they get terrible squared I mean so just because business is getting bad that's not a reason best wait for things to get better
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