저자: 미상 · 외국인
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제목에 언급된 여러 투자자의 발언을 모은 영상으로, 결론은 시장 거품과 인플레이션 우려는 크지만 단기 붕괴 확신은 없다는 쪽이다. 인플레이션·스태그플레이션 우려: 한 출연자는 가장 큰 걱정이 스태그플레이션이며 인플레이션 헤지를 최대한 늘리겠다고 말한다. 대규모 통화 발행이 자산 시장으로 몰리고 있고 언젠가 대가를 치러야 한다는 주장이 나온다. 거품 진단: 일본 1980년대 버블과 1970년대 상황을 비유하며 시장이 역사적 고점 근처라고 본다. 다만 거품은 시장 전체가 아니라 일부 종목에 한정되어 있고 현재 전량 매도는 하지 않는다고 말한다. 1~2년 내 심각한 문제가 나올 수 있다는 전망이 있다. 단기 시장 전망: 6월 중순~7월의 상승 편향이 약해지고 있어 등락 폭은 1% 안팎일 수 있으나, 단기 방향에 크게 베팅하지 않는 중립 입장이 제시된다. 가을 경기 회복과 경제 재개방 효과에 대한 낙관도 함께 나온다. 강세 쪽 논리: 전략가 발언으로 S&P500 목표가를 4,600으로 상향했다. 소비·기업 설비투자의 보복성 수요, 신용시장 호조, 주가 상승에 따른 부의 효과가 하반기 서프라이즈 요인이라고 본다. 기술·금융 섹터는 성장이 계속될 것이고 유틸리티·에너지는 어려울 것이라는 구분도 있다. 현금 보유의 기회비용이 커서 위험자산으로 자금이 이동 중이라는 분석도 나온다. 금리·디플레이션: 채권시장이 디플레이션 압력을 신호하고 있으며 실질금리가 낮다는 점에서 성장주 밸류에이션에 큰 영향이 있다는 주장이 나온다. 혁신에 따른 파괴적 디플레이션이 자사주 매입·실적 부풀리기 기업을 압박할 수 있다고 본다. 투기 과열: 정부의 대규모 지원금, 젊은 투자자의 차입 투자, 밈 주식·암호화폐 투기가 시장을 밀어올리고 있다는 진단이 나온다. 비트코인 하락 언급도 있다. 리스크: 경기 둔화, 인플레이션 장기화, 금리 상승, 긴축 전환이 주요 위험으로 제시된다.
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you can't handle the truth we have to let the reddit people really kind of get cleaned out get the clock cleaned our biggest worry is stagflation we have nowhere to hide so overvalued they're at 100 year highs i don't know i don't know what you do i know one thing i'd want to do is the one thing that can hurt that is inflation i'd have as many inflation hedges on as i possibly could rick when you print a lot of money it's got to go somewhere it takes a long time to build a factory it takes a long time to build a bridge you can go online and in eight seconds you can buy a lot of microsoft or anything you want to and that's what's happening stocks and bonds all over the world are going through the roof because all this money has to go somewhere but i'll remind you somebody's got to pay for it someday uh probably the biggest bubble ever what happened in japan uh in the 1980s there were more bears at 25 000 than there were 30 000 and many more at 30 000 and there were 35 000 and the eventual collapse came at 39 000.
i see that as a concern uh right now with uh our markets i mean these are numbers that remind me of the 1970s in fact a lot of things remind me of the 1970s you know we just we're just pulling out of a failed war in afghanistan where we basically fought to a stalemate it kind of reminds me of the 70s in vietnam and we and we had guns and butter that led to inflation in the 70s and late 60s and 70s into even the early 80s and we certainly have guns butter student loan cancellation free unemployment benefits and everything else so we're going kind of full tilt but if they cannot sustain these new highs and given their predominance in the indices that may be setting up for a sizable reversal if the economy shows any weakness after that much stimulus i think stocks could go down but i think the trigger may first be now that maybe the markets do have to get real about inflation it's starting to happen some of us remember have lived through inflation in the past we've certainly read about it and when prices go higher and higher it usually causes distortions in your economy in your life your children your savings everything it gets messed up the idea of inflation is transitory uh to me is 88 trillion dollars in assets under management by asset match certainly the impact models that we run would not would argue that gser or bcom would double or triple so you've got if i just look at where asset managers are 60 40 times the one thing that they should be invested in they're not invested in probably because they're hearing these assurances what do you say is inflation here to stay inflation's here for a while we're getting the whirlwind of what was done last year in the year before even before covet stewart the fed was printing too much money they went on a binge last year perhaps for understandable reasons but they overdid it and then you i think everyone's underestimated the huge disruptions supply chains disruption when you shut down the global economy it's not like a light switch but i think some people the fed even if even if the chairman remains happily oblivious are beginning to realize stewart the party is over the savers are getting slammed many of the saviors are now more confused uh and i think some of them are now finally entering in equities and other asset categories as a part of it the united states market has been going up for 12 years now without a serious problem that's the longest in american history maybe it's going to go on 112 years without a problem mr jealous says it will i would suspect we're getting closer i'm starting to see signs of bubbles developing and bonds some stocks i'm not selling out yet by any stretch because the bubble's not everywhere but it is forming and i would suspect within a year or two we're going to see serious problem we're starting to see uh inflation now what is a bubble what what do i mean when i have a bubble because i watched a lot of bubbles over my something like 50 years of investing there were six things that made a bubble in my mind and i'm going to rattle them off then i'll apply them so that you know what i think you can't say the stock market is in the highest bubble you can't even say that it's necessarily in a bubble you have to distinguish which ones which stocks are in a bubble melody here the bulls are going to begin to lose some of the upward push the market historically from june into the middle to late two-thirds of july has an upward bias that is dissipating now so we're going to have to fight that there could be moves maybe a percent or so up or down but that nobody's really playing it is anybody really going career long or short this market in july or august i don't think so dumb and i think that's the right course of action that's why we we're we're neutral we're not betting on the downside and we're not betting big on the short-term upside this is what happens in a transition right i think we're going to have an extremely strong economy uh come the fall i think people going to return to work in september they're going to have fun they're going to go to restaurants you're going to see a massive my view economic boom i'm not buying that this is the end of the bull market i'm saying that most of the of the companies that are involved with technology would roll over for days maybe even weeks and suddenly everyone's discovered that and look at where we are in the economic cycle and the u.s really has just entered the expansion phase of the economic cycle really fund strat's tom lee just hiked his year-end s p 500 price target by 7 to 4 600 that ties for street high tom joins us right now tom great to have you with us great to be here you're not worried about slowing slowing growth compared to earlier this year an economy that reopened in the first half of the year an economy that will sort of normalize in the back half of the year with the threat of of tapering in some form uh i think that you know i i don't think recovery is a straight line up but from what we can tell looking at both earnings revisions and and conference calls and really talking to clients and businesses i think there's still quite a lot of pent up demand i think both on the consumer side right there's the revenge spending and then with both wealth effect and rising stock prices strong credit markets i think there's a corporate capex cycle coming which is essentially corporate revenge capex so i think there's a lot of positive catalysts for surprise in the second half i just believe that unless there is another unforeseen event like a virus that spreads across the globe or some kind of uh disaster occurring there is not going to be the market crash that folks are looking for or calling for because fundamentals continue to be strong and the macro environment is continuing to provide stimulus for growth so those companies that are growing will grow faster and those companies that are failing to achieve growth night for whatever reason or because the business line that they're in is different like for us companies in that utility or energy space that are going to have a hard time continuing to grow but companies in the technology and financial space are going to continue to grow so i do not see anywhere out in the near term or even reasonable midterm uh a stock market crashed like some of the others who i've addressed on your show in the past have called for it just seems completely irrational to me as someone who speaks for 1.5 trillion dollars david is now still a good time to be taking risk or is now a time to get cautious so the dominant fact of the investment landscape today is that it's never been more punitive to hold cash full stop for the last 24 months that's been true certainly in the united states but even more true actually around around the world and what that's doing is driving unprecedented amounts of money out of government bonds and into higher risk assets certainly including equities but also including a wide range of other alternative assets where we see the search for yield just and testify so i think what you have to believe about valuations today is that those are supported by a view that rates are going to stay low for longer that's a view that we certainly have um but others have been uh been pushing back hard against that and time will tell well we we believe that risk assets are are attractive today and we certainly are constructive on risks we're mindful of some places where you know pricing is run run ahead but broadly you know there's plenty of risks in the economy but our base case is for the next 18 months to have you know very strong economic recovery and economic performance right across the developed world and including china street to up its full-year projections or are we expecting that pullback others are saying is headed our way what do you think well first off i think every analyst may just retire now and give up because they're never right um but i think the bottom line here is it just shows you how wrong wall street's been all year and if you look at you know earnings per share on the s p 500 every single quarter that wall street has to keep upping their earnings estimates because they've been so off by the end of the year they could be wrong by like 40 percent based on what they thought at the beginning of the year so i think there is a narrative right now because we did see a little selling earlier in the week didn't last that long but we did actually finally get a little bit of selling but are we getting to a point now where the markets are peaking out we're at all-time highs you know we have this proverbial sugar high because the government's created trillions of dollars that have just been bespoke bestowed upon the economy and i think we have to look at his momentum right now adam is just so awesome if you look at the s p 500 of the last five months it's been up over five percent each month consecutively which is the first time since 1956 and when that happened in 1956 the market went on to go up another 25 could we see the same thing right now i'm in the camp to say yes we could see a melt up here might be on the flip of that right now the bond market is signaling there are more deflationary pressures brewing out there we believe than most uh investors appreciate i've just mentioned the good deflation associated with innovation but the other side of that is creative destruction and the deflation that will hit companies who have leveraged up to buy back shares manufacture earnings growth have not invested enough in getting ready for the new world and believe me every sector is going to be transformed and so they will face significant pricing pressure as their products really go obsolete eventually and then the cyclical deflation well the bond market seems to say this is what's happening and if that is true because most people don't believe one and a half percent is a real interest rate they've been normalizing i think in terms of the way multiples have worked out in in the market the equity market uh they've been um pricing or valuing stocks as though the normalized interest rate is somewhere around four percent um what if it's not what if it is half of that uh that that would be huge uh for secular growth companies when it comes to trying to figure out things you know it's not that my my opinion doesn't matter see my job is to figure out what the big buyers and sellers are thinking not what jim cramer's thinking i know what i'm thinking but theory 2 is right how do we explain the weakness in so many parts of this market including areas that should be thriving in a peak inflation scenario i think i have it i think i have it and it's none of those none okay i think right now we have a lot of speculation in the system in part because the government's giving away so much money in part because there's a new cohort of investors younger people who tend to borrow money to buy everything from bitcoin which is being crushed by the way to all sorts of high-growth stocks that they don't know the first thing about and of course all this junk they keep taking up that probably should be much lower these younger investors seem drawn to technology biotech crypto meme stocks the latter being the unfortunate name for the stocks that have become playthings for the reddit contingent that keeps trying to get game the ungainable i think these speculators are starting to get blown out you still holding on to all those oex contracts yeah you better believe it why you nervous you
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