저자: DylanRieger/주발언대상은JamesAltucher인용 · 외국인
요약 보기
휴머노이드 로봇·피지컬 AI 확산 수혜주로 세 반도체 기업을 제시: ON Semi(카메라 이미지센서, 시총 약 330억 달러, 단기 악재 후 매력 제시), Allegro MicroSystems(자기센서, 로봇 매출은 작지만 본업 성장, 고점 대비 약 45% 하락 후 매수 의견), STMicroelectronics(MCU·모터제어, 매출 성장 회복, 고점 대비 약 30% 하락). 로봇 매출 비중은 아직 작아 본업 회복이 핵심이라고 설명. 영상 말미 무료 리포트 유도 광고 포함.
다듬은 글
James Altucher claims that Elon Musk is about to launch what he calls an “ infinite money glitch,” which he says will help create quadrillions of dollars of new wealth. The technology he's talking about is humanoid robots and physical AI, but Althusser says the biggest opportunity may not be Tesla at all.
Instead, he teases us with three semiconductor companies that provide the eyes, nervous system, and motor control these robots need, and he believes they will win, regardless of which humanoid robot ultimately wins. The only problem is that James won't tell you these three stocks until you buy his newsletter, but I have good news.
I sat down and watched his hour-long presentation and was able to calculate each stock based on the clues James left. In this video, I'll reveal each of them completely free of charge. There are a lot of promotions to cover, so we'll get right to the point, and the first promotion is about robotic eyes.
According to James, the first clue came when engineers disassembled Tesla's autopilot camera system and found image sensors from the same company inside. Althusser said these sensors became the eyes of the system because without them, physical AI can't actually see or understand the world around it.
The second clue is market share. He says the company already supplies a huge percentage of the world's driver assistance systems, so it already has experience producing imaging technology on a huge scale . And the biggest clue is that the CEO recently committed billions of dollars to expanding into what he specifically called the realm of physical AI, including robotics.
Putting all these clues together, we get ON Semi stock, ticker ON. ON Semi is a large semiconductor company that primarily manufactures power chips and sensors used in cars, factories, data centers, and other electronics. And this is where , in my opinion , Althusser's formulation becomes somewhat aggressive.
He makes ON Semi sound like a pure bet on providing humanoid robots with vision, but that's only a very small part of their real business today. In the second quarter, ON Semi received about 1.6 billion in revenue, while its entire smart sensor group only received about 229 million. The automotive sector alone brought in approximately 781 million.
The physical AI strategy is real, especially with the planned acquisition of Synaptics, but the $5.7 billion deal is not expected to close until mid- 2027. Meanwhile, ON Semi shares are trading at around $85 a share, giving the company a valuation of around $33 billion. So the question is, will robotics become big enough to really impact a company of this size, or is Althusser getting too ahead of the numbers?
The arguments in favor of ON Semi are actually quite strong even without the humanoid robots becoming an instant smash hit. The company appears to be overcoming the downturn in the semiconductor industry. Revenue grew by 9% last quarter. Free cash flow jumped by $425 million, and its AI data center business is expected to more than double this year.
So, their performance is already improving, although the work has not even become widespread yet. Add long-term perspectives here. On Semi already has significant stakes in energy and sensors, and the acquisition of Synaptics will provide them with computing and communication technologies for smart machines.
And, more importantly, the revised deal is now worth just $5.7 billion and is expected to be immediately accretive to adjusted earnings . What holds me back is that robotics is still a tiny part of the business. They also need to successfully integrate Synaptics, and semiconductor demand can be highly cyclical.
So for this thesis to work, I don't need Optimus to take over the world. I need the existing business to continue to recover, AI data center growth to remain stable , margins to improve , and physical AI to gradually become a significant source of revenue. And after the recent stock drop, I truly believe it's a strong investment right now.
I'll reveal the rest of the stocks in 15 seconds, but before I do, I want to tell you about my free report on the 10 best stocks to buy and hold. These are the companies that I believe have the best combination of strong long-term potential and growth. When you 're done watching, click the link in the description, enter your email, and I'll send the report straight to your inbox.
Now for the clues to the second robotics action, which James calls the "nervous system" of robotics. First tip: robots must always know exactly where each of their joints is located. Al Tepper says this company makes specialized magnetic sensor chips that perform this task. And according to Tepper, it is the No.
1 manufacturer of such chips in the world. But the biggest clue is the number of chips needed for each robot. Al Tepper notes that the company's CEO estimates that an advanced humanoid robot could contain about 150 of their sensors, twice as many as in electric vehicles. This is important because if companies like Tesla eventually produce millions of robots, even a relatively cheap sensor becomes a huge opportunity when multiplied by 150 for each machine.
And according to James, unlike Nvidia, it's still a small semiconductor company. Putting all these clues together , we can almost certainly say that this is Allegro MicroSystems, ticker ALGM. Allegro MicroSystems is actually a company that manufactures sensors and power chips. Their chips measure parameters such as position, speed, electric current, and control motors, which is why they are already used in cars and industrial equipment.
But the reality check for this stock is the same as for Semi. This is not a company that deals with humanoid robotics. In the last quarter, about 165 million of the 259 million in revenue came from the automotive sector, meaning that cars still account for almost 2/3 of the business. Robotics is a much smaller industrial category.
The good news is that the core business is growing rapidly. Revenue grew 27% year- over-year, gross margin improved to 48.5%, and adjusted earnings more than doubled to 23 cents per share. At around $39 per share, Allegro is valued at around $ 7.2 billion, or about 7.5 times its trailing 12- month sales.
So, investors are already paying for a significant share of future growth. So the question before passing judgment is: can robotics grow from an interesting side opportunity to something big enough to warrant valuation? The arguments in favor of Allegro are quite simple. The core business is already improving even before humanoid robots become popular.
Revenue is growing, profits have improved dramatically, and the share of data centers has reached a record 17% of sales. Even more interestingly, Allegro says its robotics automation revenue more than doubled last year, albeit from a small base, and they are already seeing an increase in orders from customers developing humanoid robots.
What's holding me back is the cost estimate. At $39 a share, you're still paying a premium for a company whose biggest business remains automotive, and humanoid robotics isn't big enough yet to justify the stock price on its own. But this is another stock that has fallen significantly in price. In June, Allegro shares were trading at $71, meaning they are now down about 45% from recent highs.
So, here's what needs to happen for stocks to perform well . The automotive market recovery should continue, data center sales should continue to grow, margins should improve, and most importantly, those humanoid robot design orders should eventually translate into meaningful manufacturing revenue. I don't necessarily consider this stock as good a buy as On Semi, but I still think it's a good buy at the current price.
Now let's look at the clues for the last action that James suggests, and he says that this action helps the robots move. According to James, a humanoid robot has dozens of joints, and each one requires extremely precise control so that the robot can do something powerful, like lifting a heavy object, but also something delicate, like holding an egg.
Al Techer says this company supplies the microcontrollers, sensors, and motor control components that make this possible. And then a much more important clue appears. He says the company was recently named a partner for Nvidia's Halos robotics platform, directly integrating its technology into Nvidia's physical AI development.
And Morgan Stanley also recognized the company as an important part of the supply chain in the nascent humanoid robotics industry . So, unlike the first two actions, this one is not about helping the robot see or understand where its body is. It concerns the control of movement directly. Put all these clues together and you get STMicroelectronics stock, ticker STM.
STM Microelectronics is a huge semiconductor company that produces microcontrollers, sensors, and power chips for cars, factories, consumer electronics, and industrial equipment. However, again, as with the previous two promotions, humanoid robotics is only a tiny part of this company. Today, the company is much more dependent on demand for automotive and industrial chips than on Optimus or any other humanoid platform.
Business, however, is recovering. In the second quarter, revenue grew 26% year-over-year to $3.49 billion, with automotive revenue up 16% and industrial revenue up 34%. Gross margin was about 35%. At a price of about $58 per share, STM is now worth about $51 billion, or about 3.9 times annual revenue.
So the question now is: Will robotics become a big enough new growth engine to matter to a company whose annual revenue already exceeds $11 billion? The arguments in favor of STM are very similar to the situation with Allegro. The core business is already improving even before humanoid robotics really takes off.
Orders are strengthening across all end markets, and management expects about $3.7 billion in revenue in the third quarter. The company is also seeing strong momentum outside of robotics, particularly in AI data centers, where ST now expects more than $1 billion in revenue this year and possibly more than $2 billion next.
What makes me hesitant is that STM is a huge company, and humanoid robots are still a very small part of the story. So, even if robotics grows rapidly, it will take time before it has a significant impact on overall revenue. In addition, stock valuations are not exactly cheap. But, as in the case of Allegro, the shares have already fallen significantly.
Recently, STM was trading near historical highs of around $80, and today it is around $56, which is about 30% below the peak. So, what needs to happen for stocks to perform well ? The semiconductor market recovery should continue, margins should grow, and the AI data center business should meet the aggressive growth targets set by management.
And robotics should eventually become another significant source of demand for its sensor and motor control chips. But, summing up everything about these stocks, I think they are also worth buying. And before you go, don't forget to get my free report on the 10 best stocks to buy and hold now. These are the companies that I believe offer the best combination of long-term growth potential and strong businesses.
Just follow the link in the description, enter your email address, and I'll send the full report straight to your inbox.
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