저자: Logan · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라는 과대평가 상태이며, 마이클 버리의 역감마스퀴즈 경고처럼 급락 가능성이 있다고 주장. 마이클 버리 발언 소개: 버리는 2020년 12월부터 테슬라에 숏 포지션을 보유 중이며, 풋옵션 대량 매수로 인한 역감마스퀴즈 취약성을 언급. 테슬라 공매도 잔고는 낮음(약 5~7%). 가격 배경: 2020년 3월 약 70달러에서 2021년 초 약 900달러까지 급등. 버리는 숏을 일찍 잡아 손실 상태. 감마스퀴즈 원리: 콜옵션 대량 매수 → 매도자(은행·기관)의 델타헤지 목적 주식 매수 → 주가 상승. 게임스탑 사례처럼 급등 가능. 역방향은 풋옵션 대량 매수 → 주식 매도로 급락 유발. 테슬라 가치 평가: 자동차·배터리·자율주행·에너지 기업을 합쳐도 약 8000억 달러 시총은 실적으로 정당화되기 어렵다고 주장. 내부자 지분 매도 언급. 급락 시나리오: 주가 30~50% 하락 시 지수펀드 시총가중 리밸런싱 매도, 신규 소액투자자 이탈이 연쇄 하락 유발 가능. 게임스탑이 한 달 만에 약 80~90% 하락한 사례를 들어 테슬라도 1년 전 저점 수준까지 되돌아갈 수 있다고 봄. 출연자 본인 포지션: 현재 테슬라 롱·숏 모두 아님. 2~3년 전 롱으로 큰 수익을 봤으나, 장기 투자자로서는 현 가격에서 손대지 않겠다고 밝힘. 면책: 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시.
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hello everyone so an investor who i like to keep in mind when making decisions has just come out and said something about a company i like to keep an eye out for as well so today i'm going to examine what michael bury has just pointed out with regards to tesla's susceptibility to an inverse gamma squeeze what exactly he is talking about and what this could mean for tesla's share price going forward so stay tuned hi everybody welcome back to the contrarian for those of you who are new here my name is logan and i really like to talk about overall success in investing as well as going against the crowd as my title implies so if you like these kinds of topics just consider subscribing and i'm also not a financial advisor so just don't take any of this as financial advice and a brief disclaimer as well i actually was long tesla stock for a couple of years back about three two to three years now i'm a big fan of what elon musk has done but i'm just not a fan of current uh valuations put on tesla's stock so to get started let's look at buri's tweet last week regarding tesla's ability to undergo essentially a reverse of what has happened during the last year to tesla stock and in case you've been living under a rock for the last year you've probably seen the meteoric rise tesla's share price has had from roughly 70 dollars in march of 2020 to 900 at one point early in 2021 so this has been one heck of an increase and it definitely has not escaped the attention of michael bury who has been short tesla since december of 2020 so he thankfully for himself you know he held off for a long time on getting into that short position but he did jump in a little too early at least from where we are right now and the price has risen some 30 or 40 percent from where he bought in back in december so burries tweet this is not me and makes no sense to me tesla is however susceptible to a reverse gamma squeeze using puts and performed by institutions tesla's short interest is around two days volume too small for a normal short squeeze but the the colt has made out of the money puts cheap boomerang so burri is essentially saying that while this was not him buying all of these put options he is referencing he does think that tesla is susceptible to an inverse gamma squeeze now had i mentioned the term of the gamma squeeze even just a few months ago i don't think many people would know what that is but since the gamestop short squeeze and gamma squeeze that just occurred about a month ago it has been much more widely talked about since then and essentially what brewery is saying is that the factors that drove tesla to such an extreme valuation and what drove gamestop up you know higher than anyone thought possible could now work in the reverse against tesla's share price so this would be sort of a gamma crush if you will i don't know if that's an official term but i'm just going to i'm going to call it that now i'll briefly expand explain what a gamma squeeze or crush in this case is a gamma squeeze such as what just happened last month in gamestop is the rapid purchasing of call options by speculators and investors and in purchasing many more calls than puts they force the sellers of these options so whoever they are banks or institutions they force them to hedge these option contracts by buying shares in the stock in order to hedge against their potential loss so even those these speculators aren't buying the shares themselves they are forcing the sellers of these option contracts to buy shares in order to delta hedge their position and in buying many multiples more calls than puts these people were able to successfully drive up the price in gamestop and this in turn led to other people buying more call options as well as well as some um short sellers covering their positions so this is what happened in gamestop and in tesla gamestop was a much more rapid acceleration of that tesla was more drawn out as can be seen and michael bury also refers to delta gamma hedging and just the it's a very basic formula actually how much you can calculate how susceptible a particular company might be to a delta gamma hedging the process by the process mr money manager uses to stay neutral when selling you out of the money options by buying or selling shares nope is a rough and dirty way to approximate the impact of delta gamma hedging as a function of share volume so as you'll see obviously the more the higher the volume and the higher the amount of calls or puts um is greater than the other the more you can either influence a share price to go up or down and obviously um this is inversely proportional to the daily trading volume so in the case of gamestop that is why it was such a dramatic increase is just the volumes of um the call options being purchased were so much greater than the volumes of put options being purchased as well as the entire thing was much greater than the average daily trading volume so that's why gamestop's gamma squeeze was so rapid and so dramatic um and this type of gamma squeeze is also likely what was part of tesla's rise though there have been other factors as well don't get me wrong there's also been the exiting of short sellers just remember back about a year or two ago tesla was one of the most shorted stocks on wall street and now the short interest is down to you know five or seven percent now which is very low that's kind of your average for a a company like that i bet amazon and apple probably have very similar uh short interests but they've also had a hype from the cyber truck and new battery technology and most recently the inclusion in the s p 500 so these have all been other factors as well that have driven tesla up around 12 times in the last 11 months or so and you might ask um you know how could this happen in reverse um and i'll lay out the factors as they stand right now and apart from being extremely overvalued by any conventional method evaluation you know even if you say that tesla is a car battery energy technology solar company combined which i disagree with i don't i don't think it's all of those at the same time um but let's just assume that that's true that it's all of these combined you know what autonomous vehicle technology company a battery manufacturing company even though they license the technology that they put in their batteries they license it from other companies like panasonic but let's just assume that it's all these companies combined you you still don't get anywhere close to the 800 billion dollar market cap that they're at right now just with the earnings they have the revenue they have they're nowhere near that even if you say that they're all these um companies combined so even in the very best case they're not they're very overvalued even just looking at the best bullish case scenario and the growth in the fundamentals just aren't there you know i still like what they've done as a company and the cars are really cool and all and they have a lot of well-known people behind them such as ron barron and larry ellison and um so they have a lot going for them you know but actually a lot of the insiders have just you know they've trimmed a lot of their shares recently but bottom line is just this valuation cannot last in my opinion i say this with confidence that tesla is probably the single biggest overvalued company right now and potentially in all of history up to this point um so hopefully we're on the same page in terms of it being overvalued at this price but if you don't agree with me i don't think there's anything more i could say that would convince you so i'll i'll just move on from here here's another one of bree's tweets kind of getting at the evaluation issue well my last big short just got bigger and bigger too tesla a 60 billion dollar increase in market cap today alone one general motors one two hershey's three etsy's four dominoes ten vernatos enjoy it while it lasts so yeah he does not think it can last at all um but now getting on to the reverse gamma squeeze um to have a reverse gamma squeeze simply put a lot of investors or several institutional investors would need to start purchasing large quantities of out of the money put options and as brewery pointed out a few tweets ago i showed these put options have become very cheap just because of the extreme rise that the share prices had and the you know the rapid purchasing of these put options would result in the sellers of these option premiums selling shares to delta hedge their positions and you could suddenly have a very rapid decrease in the share price in a short amount of time but this is just from the gamma side of things uh and this could kind of just be the start if you will let's say if tesla's share price were to fall say you know 30 40 50 percent from here so down to you know five hundred dollars again or six hundred dollars again all of a sudden a lot more selling would begin to take place in these index funds that hold tesla because remember these index funds are market cap weighted so all of a sudden if they have a a 30 decrease in the market cap of a large stock that they're holding they're going to trim that to adjust for this large decrease in market cap um so that that's also another factor that would come into play and then of course you would have a lot of these new smaller investors who have gotten into tesla's say in the last one or two years they would probably be getting scared and dropping their shares as well so in my mind this actually seems like if this snowball gets going whatever starts it it if it if it starts by this reverse gamma squeeze or if it starts by just a simple market correction for whatever reason if tesla starts going down um you know this this could really accelerate it in other words it could go down just as rapidly as it's gone up in other words i'm kind of like what we've seen with gamestop of going down um something like 80 to 90 percent from the highs that it reached just a month ago now it's down to it was at around 480 at its top now it's down to around 50.
um i think that a similar thing happening to tesla of it going back down to the lows it had about a year ago isn't out of the question um but bottom line i just don't think that such a crash like this would be out of the question um now again none of this is to be taken as advice but uh this is just hopefully some helpful information for you to consider again um yeah i am not a short or long tesla right now but i was actually long tesla um two to three years ago it did work out very very well for me but it's just um extremely overvalued right now in my opinion and i wouldn't touch it as a long-term investor um and yeah i really take my hat off for michael murray he's definitely putting his reputation out there on the line going short like this but only time will tell if he's correct in this or not and yeah so if you like these kinds of topics just consider subscribing and i hope to see you again
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