저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 기술적 분석 기준으로 트위터(당시 종목명)·테슬라·넷플릭스·아마존·애플은 단기 하락 가능성이 크고, 고프로는 11달러 저항 돌파 여부가 핵심이다. 트위터: 실적 발표 후 대량 거래를 동반한 큰 갭하락 이후 이전 고점 재테스트 중. 1750 부근에서 저위험 숏 기회로 보며, 1775 이상 유지 시 숏 무효. 갭 메우기(상단) 목표. 고프로: 11달러 바로 아래 저항이 반복적으로 거절됨. 11달러 돌파 시 큰 상승 돌파로 해석, 돌파 실패 시 숏 기회. 테슬라: 상승 추세선 지지 중이나 하락 추세선 사이에서 수렴. 338 하향 이탈(갭다운) 시 숏 신호, 315~300 목표. 50일선 하향, MACD 시그널 하회, RSI 50 하회 등 약세 지표. 넷플릭스: 아일랜드 리버설 패턴과 도지 후 반전 캔들로 저항 거절 확인. 166 지지와 2016년 여름부터 이어진 상승 추세선이 만나는 166~160 구간이 중요한 매수(딥) 관심 구간이며, 단기적으로는 하락 가능성. 아마존: 실적 후 대량 거래 동반 하락, 큰 하락 흐름을 예상하나 단기 반등 가능성도 인정. 982 돌파 시 1015 목표, 그 구간은 숏 구간으로 봄. 과거 콜옵션 롱 수익 언급(과거 실적). 애플: 저항 돌파 후 다시 하회, 소형 상승 추세선 이탈. 단기 하락 전망, 155 부근 50일선과 과거 저항이 지지로 전환된 구간에서 재테스트 가능성. 리스크: 모든 판단은 기술적 레벨 기준이며 특정 손절·비중 조건이 명확하지 않음. 구독 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
a but first chart here we're starting off with Twitter and I want to point out this was a huge gap down on earnings all right so when you get a big gap down on earnings on a heavy volume you know this is what moves stops earnings okay so big gap down big volume right here now we're coming up to retest that level which is that previous high right here so let's see if it can break over that if you can break over this high I think we can come up here and fill this gap but right here I think is a low risk short opportunity so we can short here 1750 and target this gap fill down there if it breaks much higher than about you know 1775 then that's not going to be a really good short any long okay if it does end up holding over 1775 that's a long so really we're at a very key level here on Twitter so keep that in mind 1750 for Twitter alright let's go back all the way to the in 2017 and you can see this is a rejection point right here just below $11 let's see right here about a month ago we saw a rejection right here at that same point and then look at where we got rejected right here on this big gap up all right so big gap up and this big reversal candle as well so definitely a level that you want to be paying attention to on GoPro so as far as where is it going to head well we've got some strong action coming into it holding the second day right here so I do think that we can retest those levels above us and I do think that's a low risk short near about $11 so if we do see that pop in GoPro just kind of like how we did over here you can see the first day right here had a little bit of a rejection look but then we ended up getting green one day two day and then getting rejected at this same level about $11 just below $11 is a huge huge level so definitely be paying attention that level got a gap down here that may want to sell if we break over $11 man that's gonna be a big break out here for GoPro so you've got a lot of options here this $11 price point is very very important for GoPro don't want to miss it all right so here gonna go back to March of this year and you can see we started this uptrend line right here got a bounce there here's a bounce here's a bounce and then look at this recent action bounce off of it bounce off of it here we are holding against this level right here so this is a very very key trend line that needs to hold for Tesla on the other end we've got a downtrend line right here that if we break over that you can see a breakout to me this looks like we're about to break down okay if we get a gap below about 338 yeah it's called 338 we get a gap below 338 to me that's a short signal and I think we'll be headed down to anywhere from about 315 all the way down to about 300 and would be that near-term target for me on Tesla so another thing is we're not only squeezing in between these two trend lines we've got this little box right here we've got the 50-day moving average right here that as you notice it's the red line right here and the 50-day moving average is that red line it is trending depth so when you get that trending down 50-day moving average you also have the RSI trending down as well currently below the 50 mark we've got MACD currently below the signal line trending down usually when you have these two cases you know 50-day moving average trending down MACD turning down RSI trending down and it's squeezing between two levels most of the time that sees lower prices so again personally I'm not shorting it right here I want to wait for that break below 338 we get that 338 crack then that's going to be a good shorting opportunity and it'll come down to test that 304 to 315 level next we're going to take a look at is one that I've been watching and it is Netflix so Netflix as we mentioned here previously this pattern right here is an island reversal pattern so what makes it an island reversal pattern well we've got this gap up right here big gap up and you can see traded sideways for a little bit and then this big gap down right there so this to me island reversal pattern here and then this move up right here was just a gap so gap fill retest into that resistance and as you can see clearly getting a rejection and a reaction here as you can see we've got this doji right here followed by this reversal candle right here so to me that rejection is confirmed how do you think we're going to see a little bit lower prices here on Netflix we got support still here big support down here at about 166 and if you back it up here on Netflix we've got an uptrend here that started in the summer of 2016 you can see it started here got a bounce here got a bounce here got a balance right here off of that you can see it's really really respecting this uptrend line and guess where that matches up with right around that 166 support so definitely a key level here I think it's a viable dip again I do think we're gonna see lower prices here in the short term but if we do head down to about 166 to 160 down to this support as well as this trendline to me that's a viable area that you definitely want to be keeping an eye on for Netflix you know I've been calling for lower prices here for Amazon and what I mean by lower prices here is overall I don't think we're gonna necessarily head lower tomorrow or the next day but I'm talking about a bigger move here just because we had a lot of volume coming out of this stock here and we saw lower prices confirming those bearish volumes so we've got this big gap down here on earnings the previous day had some heavy volume as well right they're selling the next day huge volume following a huge volume you can see this day huge volume on a red candle right here and right here huge volume on some red days as well so we haven't really seen any big green volume days right here alright doesn't mean we can't have higher here in the short term I do think that it's possible I don't have as good of a read on the short term levels on Amazon even though right here we got long right here and took some profits against this 982 resistance we made about 300% on some amazon call options right there so you know even though I have this longer term view that Amazon is going to head lower doesn't mean we can't play some long side calls in the meantime and we got this really nice long signal against some support and the gapped up here that was the play it was a short-term play it was about we took the following weeks calls and we took that runner is very very nice trade right there so but in the meantime you can see that MACD is above the signal line RSI is holding above the 50 level right here but we're still below the resistance right here if we clear 982 that next target is going to be right around let's call it about 1015 1015 is going to be that target and if we do have higher that is going to be a really nice shorting area against 1015 so keep that in level keep that level in mind if we do head higher that's a nice short zone the next more and a tip of look at is Apple and Apple here what I want you to focus on is a couple of things okay number one we had a breakout here over this resistance level so here's resistance there's resistance here it is again and then we broke over that right here and then look at how we broke back under it right here and we did so with some pretty decent volume as well so I do think that Apple here is going to be headed lower in the short term it also broke this little mini uptrend line started here you can see it definitely reacted to it there and reacted to it there and we broke it here on Friday all right so if we do have higher I do think that it's going to be a better risk reward for a short maybe against all these lows you can see one two three all around that 160 50 level and that be a retest of that broken trendline as well so do you think that's a good shorting area and I'll think we'll come down and retest that's 50-day moving out which is the red line right here at about 155 is where it's at right now and look at where it's matching up perfectly with is this big-time support see we got a bounce there got a bounce there here and you can see it was previous resistance there right here all the way over here for about a month and a half straight this was resistance so this is a simple case of the resistance turning into support and that matches up perfectly with sign up today and f you want to improve your trading and learn how to do so this is the place for you
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