저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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2022년 5월 3일 방송 기준 시장 결론: 과거 주도주(밈주식, 주택건설주, 금융주, 소프트웨어·핀테크, IPO·SPAC, 반도체, 전자상거래)는 아직 반등의 지속 가능한 출발점이 되지 못했으며 계속 하락 추세다. 밈주식: AMC는 1년 전 63달러에서 15달러 수준으로 하락했고, 게임스탑은 게임 사이클 둔화와 콘솔 공급 정상화로 매력이 떨어졌다고 평가했다. 과거에 손실을 본 투자자에게 미안하다며 밈주식 팀 리더 역할을 자처하는 발언도 있었다. 주택건설주: 모기지 금리가 5.5%까지 오르면서 주택건설주가 급락했다. 주택 가격 중간값이 전년 대비 약 16% 상승해 36만8천달러에 이르는 등 주택 인플레이션이 심각하다고 진단했다. PER 4~5배는 실적 추정치 하향 때문이며 '가치 함정(value trap)'일 수 있다고 경고했다. 금리 인상 사이클 말기에야 밸류에이션 바닥이 나타나며, 그 전까지 일시 반등은 있어도 결국 나쁘게 끝난다고 봤다. 주택건설주 PER은 긴축 사이클 동안 평균 27% 축소됐다는 분석을 인용했다. 금융주: 1월 급등 후 연준이 소비자에게 충격을 주지 않고 금리를 올릴 수 있다는 가정이 무너지는 중이며, 연착륙 우려로 은행이 나쁜 대출을 떠안을 위험이 크다. 보유 은행주는 전부 팔았어야 했다며 후회를 표명했다. 소프트웨어·핀테크·IPO·SPAC: 지난해 11월 연준의 인플레이션 전쟁 선언 이후 고평가 성장주가 크게 무너졌다. 상장 후 주가가 급락한 IPO·SPAC 종목은 과도한 시대의 잔재로, 자본이 묶여 회복이 어렵다고 평가했다. FANG·빅테크: 넷플릭스 부진 이후 FANG 테마 자체가 죽었다고 보며, 구글은 유튜브 외 실적 재평가 가능성, 메타는 사전 팬데믹 수준까지 하락 후 실적이 나왔다고 언급했다. 아마존 실적은 이해하기 어렵다고 했다. 반도체: 엔비디아와 AMD 등 과거 주도주가 게임 시장 둔화로 타격을 받았다. 마이크로소프트의 게임 매출 감소를 근거로 들었고, AMD 실적은 좋지만 부정론자가 많다고 언급했다. 전자상거래·핀테크: 이커머스 둔화로 쇼피파이는 고점 대비 약 75% 하락, 에치시(Etsy)와 스퀘어 등도 부진하다. 특정 기업은 보지 말라고 조언했다. 개별 질의응답: 로쿠(Roku)는 스트리밍 우려로 당분간 매력이 없다고 봤고, 팔란티어 관련 사이버보안 기업(팔로알토)은 수요가 견조해 고PER을 감수할 만하다고 했다. 웬디스는 맥도날드·칩otle보다 선호도가 낮다고 평가했다. 연준 전망: 제롬 파월 의장은 인플레이션 억제에 집중하며 시장의 기대를 꺾고 있고, 그 결과 주식시장이 힘들어진 점을 인정하면서도 경제에는 도움이 될 것이라고 봤다.
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'll be with ing but the educating teacher going to the fed meeting let's talk about what we've lost the groups that are no longer working the ones that need to turn around if we're ever going to get a sustainable rally and out of this miserable period these stocks are former leaders that have been taken out and shot just shot endlessly even as the fundamentals are often in tremendous shape not good not great shape fabulous shape after captivating the market for ages they've become millstones around the necks of investors everywhere and that's how you end up with a situation where you had a day like today kind of a somber day not a day of real interest not a special day dal up 67 points s b gaining points worth eight percent nasdaq hinging at 0.22 and it actually counts as a tremendous session a huge win for the bulls that's where we are now the first group of dethroned leaders let's just rip break throw up the meme stocks the meme stocks i say this because these people stick by me through thick and thin and i love them i i regard myself as the leader of the meme team not all right these were exciting as long as they lasted i mean a little less than a year ago amc entertainment was a 63 stock now it's 15 still a victory versus where trade at the beginning of the pandemic but unless you got in early this one's crushed you that's what i was trying to help by telling people maybe at the 60 level wasn't so good but i should have kept my mouth shut the next meme name gamestop powerful backer chairman ryan cohen but the problem here is that the market proceeds that the gaming cycle seems to be winding down availabilities become much easier for all sorts of consoles and most people rather buy their games over the internet i went to the website today to see what the top brands were the website didn't really work yeah i get that anyway throughout the gamestop frenzy the stock had a legitimate prop the new hardware was flying off the shelves and you couldn't play i couldn't find a playstation 5 for love or money but now they're plenty full and that means there's much less reason for anyone to show up at a gamestop remember to those who disliked me for saying this i suggested you go take a classified ad out in a newspaper because jimmy chill is done with your moronic scatological tweets and hopes you never come back from your permanent intellectual vacation the other meme names never had longevity amc gamestop the reddit crew loved that corsair gaming that that guy couldn't have they tried to run and gun wendy's but it said six right in their threw a bacon in it right in their faces and then it came down to amc in games up they were a two-stock club with the collapse of robin hood's stock making for i think what's called a fitting coder uh guys enjoy talking to yourselves no one else is ever going to listen then there's housing now we thought we had something goldman this is a leadership group oh i love them right because a lot of stuff goes into housing punches above its weight but the home builder stocks not the companies the stocks have been crushed as mortgage rates have risen to 5.5 here's what you need to know well these stocks might look cheap as so they're trading right now four or five times earnings that's most likely because the earnings estimates need to come down perhaps organically housing affordability is the worst it's ever been that's bad they can't like that in the first quarter well let's say you got double-digit price appreciation and 70 of the amer of the metro markets in america 70.
the median single family home price has risen nearly 16 year-over-year up to 368 000 that is just way too hot that's smoking out that's not acceptable the fed will have to crush these figures because housing inflation is devastating and look even though the home building stocks have been gutted i doubt they fully reflect that's how bad things can get the best housing analyst from i know is element associates so i went to alan ratner he's one of their associates and he pointed me toward book value data which showed conclusively that price to book value models tend to trough at the end of a rate cycle not anywhere near before then we're at the very beginning some housing stocks continue to fall even after the titan cycle was over ryden also mentioned that on the average home builders saw their price earnings multiples shrink by 27 from the beginning of tightening cycle to the end there could be some intermittent rallies during these periods but they all end up badly unless the fed stops raising rates that's exactly what you'd expect who wants housing exposure or mortgage rates are on the rise and a quarter of the fed announces a rate hike the home builders have underperformed the s p 569 percent of the time finally don't trust anything that trades at four to five times earnings that's called a value trap all right so housing stocks oh i forgot that's because i'm friends with the mean people next how about the financials we made a stab at owning the banks order this year for the charitable trust these stocks soared in january and wall street thought the fed could raise interest rates ever so gently without scaring the consumer that assumption is going out the window as investors increasingly feel that we're headed for a hard landing we should have sold every single one of them in a hard landing the banks get stuck with lots of bad loans that offset the easy gains to make from your deposits banks had a refund relief value today that's all it was by the way i can continue to think that the consumer is so strong that i don't have to worry about it but minority fourth the software is a service or software's or whatever stocks spent your sorting in the stratosphere stratosphere fueled by their fabulous revenue growth but when the fed declared war on inflation last november this whole group got crushed in a way the endless cloud ipos and spac stocks were the most inflated part of the economy and they crushed the market in the end hey you know fang fizzle too it wasn't just because of netflix it's also good amazon so google plus goes to facebook that's pretty much every letter i never said the single worst quarter of the majors and it dragged down every other company that was trying to do streaming or gaming that's not done it's still doing it google what a stench google's coming back as people realize there was more to the quarter than youtube's sweet distance out of europe but i'm a standard i'll terrible at amazon quarter was i read it over again last night i said i'll just read it over maybe i missed something no uh hey meta facebook's finally put up some decent set of numbers uh but that's after the stock plummeted back to pre pandemic levels i do think that at this time next year we'll say what was tick tock maybe a communist chinese invention because we have reels fang my favorite acronym it died it died this quarter hey i used to write a race for a living i know when something's dead oh we used to have the semis remember the semis they were great leaders with nvidia being the greatest of all time and amd coming in close second but they too have been crushed by the decline of gaming even as no one in the video game industry even thinks that's the case now i wouldn't believe it either except microsoft did say it was down high single digits who wants to disc with microsoft now i saw amd's numbers tonight and i love them but there are so many naysayers out there who knows if they will stop selling even on great numbers perhaps the fin the most horrendous fall of all was the e-commerce hit and saturation it wasn't all by amazon the great e-commerce deceleration has hurt everybody from the box makers to fedex ups we know that shopify is down nearly 75 from its highs during this period etsy struggling to find its old self they just aren't like anymore hey same thing goes for the adjacent fintech names like square a firm don't look at a firm no matter what you do do not look at the firm finally the ipos and smack stocks did us in even though there's been a 71 drop off in space wins to begin in 2022 these new deals stopped up a lot of capital that's now being drowned in the toast and lemonades and by the way that's not toast except toast is toast but that's not toast and that's not lemonade okay those are companies and oh unity software which actually i kind of like long-term roadblocks i like them too doesn't matter just ipo roadkill plain and simple some of these are genuinely good companies but their stocks are totally toxic did these fallen ipo and spac names slay the bull no they were just the wretched excesses of an already bygone era that we wish the fed had stopped but it was kind of helpless to do so it had to be the sec and the brokers and they never did it now anyone who watched me this morning knows that i am sick and tired of the critics who keep trying to belittle or humiliate jay pal the fed chief who will be on tv tomorrow who arguably did more to save us from a pandemic induced depression than anyone else in the government the act like pal should have known omicron wouldn't require lockdown we'll tell that to communist china apparently they didn't get the memo but here's the bottom line j-pal measures his words he wants to take the air out of everything i just mentioned okay and guess what if you look at the stock market sadly for the bulls but perhaps good for the economy and the country he's winning frank in california frank frank yes can you hear me you're rock yeah i hear you're pretty good even though my right hand is completely clogged because i flew with a cold what's up oh hey so i'm a first time caller and i'm calling about uh roku and i bought in at 63 i bought in again at 83.
i watched it go up to 490 or so come back down i think it's sitting at 105 now country and i wanted to know yeah i know anthony woods and his team are very uh positive on the stock but i wanted your opinion is it time to get out or should i hold on i you know what this is one of those names it's got hurt because it's also owned by kathy wood or she's viewed as her company um you know what look i think it's six or eight dozen another i mean if you go up 10 o'clock down 10.
there's absolutely no edge to owning roku right now because it has to do with streaming and people don't trust streaming let's go to bretton texas please brett hey my stock reports on the 17th of may and is expensive at 70 times earnings with many high multiple stocks getting punished this quarter even after reporting solid earnings is palo alto a buy into earnings well when it's the only segment left of this economy that has a tremendous demand simply because there's so many bad guys there's just i mean it is an incredible business because there's because the enemy is just so everywhere and that's why i like palo alto and i'm willing to pay up only for cyber security companies because the people who want to get into our machines and into our heads and our everything else are relentless and very smart stephanie in massachusetts stephanie booyah jim booyah stephanie i've loved your show for the past 12 years wow thank you currently sells for 21 times earnings and has a 2.5 yield it just recently launched breakfast in canada however rising inflation is affecting the fast food industry and my stock hit a new 52-week low today going into earnings next week what are your thoughts on wendy's um i think wendy's ranks after mcdonald's and chipotle of the ones i want to own i think it's good i think i think chipotle's great i think mcdonald's is so loved by institutions that they just won't sell it no matter what happens it's one of the few stocks that are completely completely seen to be immune from selling and for that i frankly don't know why jay pal measures his words he wants to take the air out of everything i just mentioned and guess what if you look at the stock market he's winning this is our group that we've saved if that group can can can hold the line maybe others will too i'll make money tonight logitech hit a fresh 52-week load today so does this tech play have what it takes to connect with investors once again i'm checking in with the ceo then rockwell automation plummeted today after earnings i'm running through the numbers with the company's top brands and it is worrisome then airbnb reported at the bell so does the home rental kingpin deserve a home in your portfolio i like the numbers don't miss my exclusive it's david
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