Ray Dalio Is 'Excited by Opening Up of China Capital Markets'

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달리오는 중국 자본시장 개방과 유동성 확대를 매우 긍정적으로 보며 향후 참여 기회를 강조한다. 중국 자본시장은 세계 2위 규모이며 개방으로 투자 기회가 커진다고 본다. 1989년 소규모 조직이 최초 주식시장을 만든 이후 제도·기관이 함께 발전해 왔다고 설명한다. 일부 개혁 후퇴(자유화 후퇴, 국유기업 역할 확대 등)에 대해서는 단기 문제로 치부하고 과도하게 강조할 필요가 없다고 주장한다. 국영기업 중심 대출 구조가 바뀌어 대출의 약 1/3이 자본시장을 통해 공급되며 중소기업 자금 접근성이 개선됐다고 평가한다. 후강통·선강통, 자유무역지구, 채권시장 발전도 긍정적으로 본다. 부채 문제는 자국 통화 표시 여부와 부채 규모를 기준으로 보면 중국 부채비율은 미국보다 낮고 현지 통화 표시라 상대적으로 관리 가능하다고 본다. 정부가 디레버리징을 선제적으로 관리하는 점도 2008년 위기 때 대응과 대비되는 장점으로 꼽는다. 금융위기는 반복되는 단기 사건이며 장기적으로는 혁신, 기업가정신, 인적 역량이 더 중요하다고 강조한다. 외국 펀드운용사에게 기회가 있으며 중국 정부가 외국 투자자 환영 정도를 결정할 것이라고 본다. 글로벌 최고 수준의 기준과 기술을 들여오려는 중국의 개방 의지를 긍정적으로 평가한다. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.

다듬은 글

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01. you spend a lot of time in China you hear originally in 1984 ray what are you seeing in terms of the opportunities now given the changes that have been underway in the capital markets in the economy here in China well there's you know terrific opening up and the capital markets and a lot more liquidity you know generally speaking these there's second largest markets in the world and they're opening up for investment and so I'm very excited about that it's particularly exciting to me because as you mentioned I came started coming in 1984 and I can tell you that I've watched and been part of that evolution in 1989 I remember an organization that was put together by seven companies to develop a stock market the first stock market in China and it was in a dingy hotel room and these seven people put together the first development of the stock market and I've watched the development of their skills their organizations financial institutions and it's been a pleasure because that's developed in much the same way as the whole economies developed so there's a modernization there's an energy here that's terrific so I'm excited to be part of it we've flagged the concerns around and suggest and point to the fact that in terms of reforms they've been some step backs whether that's you and liberalization or council controls they've been opposed or the greater role of the SOE ease here how do you square that with other advances that are taking place in China how do you read that I I think that first of all I think people put too much emphasis on the short term problems like ever since I was here there was always reasons not to believe the success okay so now look at the force behind that success when I was here I remember being a guest in 1984 of siddik and it's a 16 story office building and I would outside and they and there will hutongs hutongs were just the little neighborhoods and I said with the opening up there was going to be the capital markets coming in and there's going to be buildings and everything and so if you look at the path over there there's just too much emphasis on that and I think what you're probably referring to is maybe the the leveraging process maybe that's the issue but when I look at the state-owned enterprises it used to be five or six banks would lend money all to state-owned enterprises and there was no small and medium-sized enterprise capital markets since then about a third of the lending is coming from a new capital markets and so there's access to capital for small businesses to grow and so on a new savings visit if I look at the links and then the Hong Kong direct and I look at the free economic zones and all of that development the development of c.d.s markets or bond markets and all of that development there's been wonderful development so I think it's important not to view it in this westernized perspective of some of these things it's been anyway very very effective and if we're talking about something like the issue of the de leveraging I mean I've watched many countries go through the the leveraging x' and manage that size and scale with china faces oh well no i first of all if you look at if you look at that problems of countries the most important issue is whether they have a debt denominated in their own currency whether they have a debt denominated in a foreign currency then you look at how sizable the debt is so the the debt ratios here are not as bad as the debt ratios their debt ratios are less than our debt ratios and also it's denominated in their local currency so now you have to go to the segments of the debt there is a local government debt issue and then there are certain parts of the system in which there's issues to be dealt with there's a forthrightness in looking at that I have conversations and I could say that the understanding of those issues and the being very forthright and bring up the deleveraging I would say isn't this admirable by comparison to what we experienced in the 2008 financial crisis in other words you didn't get a heads-up from the government that said now we're going to manage edy leveraging you had 10 years ago you had a financial crisis in which they went into it and then they're in a reactive mode this is a proactive mode of something that becomes manageable so and and if you take it that any debt crisis even the the worst kind of debt crisis it comes and goes 2008 financial crisis in US was dealt with with monetary and certain fiscal policies and and changes and so on and then there's 2009 and since 2009 we had a big bull market as a result of that these things the financial crisis is of store they come and go their short-term things you have to look at the innovation you have to look at the capabilities they're unleashing an economy that has innovation there's entrepreneurship that is existing here that never did exist here the vitality is a terrific place so look beyond these things or ask yourself whether they could be well managed and also look at the capabilities of the people somebody like Lula is a very capable person so I think that those are the things that matter most in terms of picking a good place early there are opportunities for the fund management industry in China given the changes and the Rockies I think the Chinese government will determine how welcome outside investors are and as they open up you know we will be there and others will be there about my sense is that they'll be abroad opening up because they also want to bring in the skill sets you know one of the great developments in China is to bring in the best world-class standards if you want to build an automobile industry you bring in General Motors and you bring in the best automobile companies to help to bring about world-class standards because financial reform is such an important thing it'll be part of a process to bring in the you know the best in the world to try to bring in the best practices