저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
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결론: 우크라이나 전쟁은 역사적으로 저점 매수가 유리했던 사례가 많지만, 1973년 욤키푸르 전쟁처럼 유가 충격과 인플레이션이 겹친 경우는 경계해야 한다. 과거 전쟁과 시장 반응: 걸프전(1990), 6일전쟁(1967), 한국전쟁(1950)은 시장 저점 근처에서 시작되었고 이후 S&P가 상승했다. 로스차일드의 '피가 흐를 때 사라'는 격언이 역사적으로 맞았다고 설명했다. 예외 사례: 욤키푸르 전쟁은 영국 인플레이션 시기와 겹쳤고, 이후 아랍 석유 금수로 유가가 약 2달러에서 11달러 이상으로 급등하며 시장이 더 크게 하락했다. 현재 우려: 러시아 원유 공급 비중은 과거 아랍 공급보다 작아 영향이 제한적이지만, 가스 가격 상승은 더 걱정스럽다고 봤다. 포트폴리오 직접 노출: 러시아 직접 노출이 큰 기업은 필립모리스인터내셔널(매출 약 6%, 물량 약 10%), 펩시(러시아 사업 매출 약 4%), 로레알(약 2%), 브라운포먼(약 1%) 정도다. 우크라이나 노출은 더 작다. 간접 영향: 러시아는 세계 GDP의 약 3% 수준이고 자원 중심 경제라 소비재·헬스케어·기술 중심 포트폴리오에 직접 영향은 크지 않다고 판단했다. 주된 우려는 간접 효과다. 출연자 전망: 역사적으로 전쟁 발발 후 저점 매수가 맞았다는 입장이나, 인플레이션·유가·가스 가격 충격에 대한 불안을 함께 드러냈다.
다듬은 글
yes well we'll start with one that uh is one that i've come up with myself rather than any of our investors and it is this how should investors view developments in ukraine yeah yeah um right uh historically i think uh is the way i would view it and whereas i think quite a lot of people view it hysterically uh you know what what a difference what a difference a single letter makes uh on all these things um uh i put some slides together for this because um i think you know we we like to when we're researching anything try and start with a grasp of history and what's happened in the past just as you know give us something and and with some facts um and i think if you look back at how the market has reacted to other uh events uh in in sort of uh outbreaks of fighting uh or wars since world war two we can get a few pictures mostly um i would say that they tend to um support the the phrase i think was uh is attributed to nathaniel rothschild which is by on the canon uh was uh was it was his ma apparently his mantra in which the the family fortune was founded so we put together a few slides for you you can see the first one is the gulf war of 1990-1991 uh the war kicked off on the 2nd of august 1990.
i remember it well i was in work that day um and you could see that was pretty close to the low for the market if you have a look at that slide there you'll see the the second of august is just a sort of a month and a bit below the low for the market and having attained that low uh the market was off to the races in terms of of return uh obviously we're looking at the s p here as an index uh over the uh the next year or so uh basically so uh if i think i think if nat ross child were looking at this he would be pretty pleased with his with his 1810 pronouncement or whatever it is that he came up with uh the six day war of 1967 i was in school then so i wasn't in work i remember that one well as well i particularly remember general moshe diane appearing on their television sets and telling us how things were going uh 5th of june 1967 to the 10th of june not very long this um you can see the fifth of june is very close to the low in terms of the market there and once again yeah obviously it's a bit of a roller coaster as markets can be but once you've survived that the market certainly uh goes better it doesn't go after the races but this is quite a short war in quite a short period of time the korean war korean war started 25th of june 1950 um and lasted towards 17th of july 1953 you can see here we've got a short slide here which is the 1951 you can see the start of the war again is very close to the low on the s p and you can see that the market doesn't look back and climbs out there and the next slide we've got for you is a longer one going out to the end of the war in 1953 buying on the cannon would certainly have been the right idea there um so look i think the the sweep of history suggests to us that probably buying on the cannon is the right thing i've got one fear about that pursuit it's not quite fear i would say one concern absolutely that there's one other war to look at here and it's the yom kippur war and that's my final uh war slide here you can see the yom kippur war uh the market uh basically went down and it went down an awful lot more and my concern to be honest with you and about that is that uh we might be seeing some events which are a bit similar and what do i mean by that the yom kippur war basically occurred during a period of inflation in the uk the baba boom and the inflation events of that and of course was followed by the arab oil boycott in which oil supplies were cut off to anyone who was seen as a ally friend or helper of the state of israel uh and the oil price went up um good one for you is uh what did the oil price go from and two during this period this is a good one for people to think about uh yeah and and the answer is a bit over two dollars to a bit over 11 there we are wow i suppose the percentage increase we should be looking at isn't it but it's still it's worrisome because clearly we've got the oil impact of russia although its oil supply is not as big as the arab oil supply right so we're not looking at as big an effect in terms of barrel and we're not at least currently looking at as big a percentage in terms of price increase but i guess the other factor we should look at is the gas price that is a bit more scary when you look at the gas price out there so you know i would say uh you know in answer to your question that um that you're you've posed rather than the investors pose i would say historically and uh and certainly with that one uh example in mind uh with quite a lot of concern julian you've got anything to add subtract just in case people are interested in the the just the plain numbers in terms of which of our companies are exposed to russia and ukraine the only company which has really got significant exposure to russia is philip morris international um and they have said it's about six percent of their revenues and about ten percent of their volumes and i think it would it would be from a commercial point of view a shame uh if that market was closed off to other than that you may recall that pepsi bought a business in russia a while back uh called wimbledon and so they have about four percent of their revenues there l'oreal's got about two percent brown form and sells its finlandi of vodka there and it's got about one percent um but those are the only four companies that on statutory base actually even report their exposure to russia and obviously the numbers for ukraine are much smaller germany makes a good point i mean there's there's i've been talking about the indirect effects the direct effects are not great i mean if you think of the russian economy uh russia is about three percent of global gdp i think but if you look at what percentage it is of other things those pc imports mobile device imports uh software sales and so on it's one or two percent right russia is not a big tech based or consumer economy it's basically a resource economy um and and if you look at then at what we invest in we invest in consumer staples consumer discretionary items so consumer items uh health care and technology i mean we are not going to feel much direct effect from this which is why i came at it initially from the what i think the indirect effects might be
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