Mohamed El-Erian: Bond yields are moving due to concerns about credit and regional banks

요약 보기

신용 우려(지역은행, 대체자산운용사)로 금리 하락 중이나 시스템 리스크는 아니라고 봄. 연준은 노동시장 우려로 인하하겠지만 물가 3% 상회 가능성으로 0.25%p가 적절. 대차대조표 축소 중단은 다소 이르다고 평가. 미국 성장·주가는 호조지만 금 사상최고치와 약한 달러는 주의 신호이며, 외국인 유입은 달러 헤지 형태로 달러 약세 압력이 있다고 봄. 저소득·고소득 가계 및 노동시장·성장 간 디커플링을 우려.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Speaking of, let's bring in Allianz's chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian. He too is at Post 9. It's nice to see you in person as well. Thanks for having me, Scott. So, what what do you make of the move below 4% on the 10-year? And what Steve just showed us, 100% the market's convinced for this month, and then in December, and then 65 for January.

02. Is are we over our expectations a bit or no? No, I think the moves are motivated by what you discussed earlier, which is concern about credit, concerns about regional banks, concerned about alternative asset managers, and that plays into the financial stability concerns of the Fed. Wait, you think they're like real things to be concerned about in those areas?

03. Look, I agree with what Jamie Dimon said, which is, you know, cockroaches don't come in ones and twos. And we are living through a period where credit has been incredibly loose. A lot of money has been thrown at borrowers, and you've had lax standards trying to get the money to work. So, would I be surprised if we see more credit issues?

04. No. Do I think it's systemic? Do I think it's something that really brings down the economy? No, I don't. But I do think you will hear the No, the the news of defaults, and certain players will be hit. You know, you raise an interesting point. It's like the the two sides of the coin to very tight credit spreads.

05. It's something everybody always cites as there's no problem, there's no seize up in the credit markets, but by nature very tight credit spreads are going to lead to a lot of lending and and huge demand because the environment is theoretically good to do so, but then maybe you get yourself into some of the issues that we're only now learning about.

06. You're absolutely right. The tight The lower the level of the spreads, the more the curve flattens because people reach out for return, and they venture into areas they know less well because at this point it's all about relative returns, and they forget about overall compensation for risk. I've seen it happen over and over again.

07. So, it doesn't surprise me, but I don't think it's systemic, but I do think it adds to the pressure on the Fed to cut. But it's not straightforward because yes, they should be worried about employment, but inflation will go up in the months to come, and they don't know whether the employment side is a supply-side issue or a demand-side issue.

08. If it's a supply-side issue, they're going to be pushing on a string. So, Stephen Meyer, the newest Fed governor, he wants a half-point cut this month. Uh Fed governor Waller is more on a quarter-point. Which way are they going to go? I think they'll go quarter. They should have gone half last time.

09. Why shouldn't they go now a half? Because I think now they are They have less clarity on what's happening in the economy. I think that's really important. Data for them is important. This is a data-dependent Fed. The fact that they're cutting when I suspect the CPI inflation is going to go above 3% is going to be already a question mark.

10. But cut 50 when you haven't had the jobs data, that's going to be hard to explain. What about the the announcement on the balance sheet the other day that they're going to end the run-off or at least stop it for a while in the coming months? What do you think? I think a little bit too early, but I understand why.

11. that? Because I do think you got to get back to an equilibrium level of the balance sheet. The balance sheet is still too big. But they have to But I understand why. It's because they're worried about the labor side of the economy. Well, how Do you think the economy is in a good place? I mean, you chair you chair a corporate board

12. Yeah, Under that has Under Armour that has a direct line into what the consumer is doing. So, on the surface, the economy is great. We had 3.8% growth in the second quarter, highest in 2 years. We're going to get over 3% inflation is contained, the Fed is easing, the stock market is booming, but gold is at record level, but the dollar is languishing.

13. You think You think that gold at record levels is more concerning than not? Yes, it's a risk-off asset that has broken its correlations for good reason because of what's happening to the view of sovereign US. So, you think So, you think it it is a debasement trade, so to speak, that's leading to gold?

14. Yeah. Look at the amount of inflows into our stock market from outside that are hedged dollar hedged. So, people love US companies. They don't like the dollar, so they're hedging that. I think the other issue you've got to be concerned about is the decoupling. Low-income household from middle and up income household, that's a decoupling.

15. The labor market from growth, that's a decoupling. So, there's a Below the surface, there's a lot of question marks that suggest that we've got to be careful in the months ahead.