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oh my gosh we're in a recession but the stock market's rallying oh what is happening well in this video i'm going to explain exactly what's happening because that has everything to do with the federal reserve i just want to show off the most amazing view ever that's right folks meet kevin and the expiring coupon code for 50 off on the programs i'm building your wealth a link down below i will be back from vacation on the first and this is the end folks this is the end of vacation season so i think the market is pre-rallying a because it's the end of vacation season and b here's the scoop jerome powell told us something very very important yesterday and i think most folks kind of cast it aside because everybody was waiting for these gdp numbers to come in jerome powell told us that it will be appropriate in the future in the near term to start reducing the pace of rate hikes and has already mentioned that production and spending and demand in the economy has started to slow this is the point of monetary policy combined with the fact that they said that once they get to neutral if there is a lag between how much monetary policy that is fed policy affects markets well affects demand essentially consumers spending money in businesses in english okay in plain freaking english the federal reserve at this point is starting to realize okay all right we've done enough it's time to slow down especially since what we've done reacts or hits the market with a delay which means the actions that we have just taken and have taken over the last couple months will still take some time to actually play out so let's chillax a little bit as a result of this chillaxing and us officially being in a recession markets are cheering now why would markets cheer well because folks remember what i said in january on january 22nd i made it crystal clear th now markets have been expecting this and the potential for an earlier bottom because we're kind of pre-pricing that the fed was basically going to u-turn soon but previous bottoms have been 1989 you should memorize these memorize these okay 1989 fed bottom market bottom 2003 march market bottom march around of uh 2009 market bottom 2018 december market bottom march of 2020 market bottom okay i have these memorized i got nothing in this like pink and purple room here okay nothing nothing just me okay memorize those it's so important because in 1989 the federal reserve established the precedent of bailing out the market now the federal and now we have this very clear precedent that the bottom of the market occurs when the federal reserve u-turns and so markets have been pre-expecting the fed to u-turn this is why markets bottomed in june so why are we rallying like crazy now why all of a sudden are we seeing a risk on move well first of all we're seeing a risk on move in solar stocks because of the biden energy stimulus that we've seen the 369 billion dollar energy investment that extends the solar tax credit through 2025 january 1st 2025 and provides more ev tax credits for not just individually owned vehicles with no limit per manufacturer of 7 500 but also commercial vehicles up to potentially forty thousand dollars watch the details of exactly that plan in the video that i made this morning you can just search for it meet kevin biden targeted stimulus and you'll see it it's also called the inflation reduction act which is total bogus although what will be really funny is we're probably going to pass the inflation reduction act within the next month or two probably within the next month before midterms and you know what inflation will probably go down like immediately right after and so democrats will go into november going see we passed the inflation reduction act in august and inflation went down in october you should vote for democrats in october because we were just dealing with what trump gave us dude i hate politics because that's not why inflation went down okay it is absolutely not going to be why inflation went down however you also have to be fair to biden in that he did not cause all of the inflation okay we had a lot of stimulus before he came into office the extra 1400 stimulus package probably not a good idea shutting down the keystone pipeline probably not a good idea but he's not responsible for all of the inflation okay anyway this isn't a political video the point of this is the stock market is believing that oh my goodness this is a fed u-turn this is the equivalent of a federal reserve u-turn now it may not be because inflation may not go down however the bond market believes that no no inflation will be going down break evens are down consumer expectations of inflation are going down that means inflation should be going down within the next two to three months that's very good and if that's the case the stock market deserves to rally and you should be invested in the market hashtag not financial advice but you should be in the market i've been saying you should probably be in the market since qqq was at 318 okay and look i realized we went all the way you know we went a good chunk below that i get it i'm just saying you want to be part of this market because i don't see a substantial further bottom i'm going out uh you know i'm putting my neck on the line here i think the second half of this year is going to be glorious we just went through a seven month disastrous bear market it has been cancerous people are yelling at each other fighting each other i've had to turn off comments because they're cancerous i'm actually a lot more productive with the comments off because i'd spend so much time reading the comments that just make me feel like uh you know and then it even washes out the compliments there could be nine compliments and one person going you suck and it just ruins my day it's terrible and i can't stop i can't stop looking at the comments so anyway now i just care about what people say in discord go to medkevin.com chat if you want to chat with me on discord you can tag me there for free it doesn't cost you anything but anyway look the bottom line is not only are we seeing a rally in the solar plays because of this energy plan but that i think is starting to prop some names up a little too high and face sexy stock love the company phenomenal growth rates peg ratio relatively close to one i mean you've got a p e ratio of i think 70 and a growth rate of like 60 they are absolutely killing it i love them absolutely love them that eps bottom line number is growing so nicely but they're too pricey i think in this market relative to other deals i know that sounds crazy because they've been going up but i think i think the next run is going to go to chip manufacturers once they bottom out with chip inventories it's going to go to retail stocks that might be amazon etsy's already blown up i was looking at etsy when i was 70 bucks and telling everybody hey you know there's this valuation for etsy is remarkable uh and now it's back at 100 bucks and it probably has more run to it uh but i do want to say this as much as we're seeing euphoria that euphoria can quickly shift if we get bad cpi prints over the next two months you're going to want to have money for a rainy day so i'm not the biggest fan of saying that's it now is the time to go all in yolo margin i don't think i will ever say that first of all all in go all in on margin i don't think i'll ever say that in fact it's during your euphoric times that you generally want to start thinking about taking money off the table we are not at euphoric times right now we're coming out of hell which does not mean we're you four times now i also understand that there are a lot of folks who are like but kevin i don't want to buy on a green day because like you've taught us kevin only buy on red days yes but but but but when you're coming off a bottom there it it can be okay to buy and go on green if you are diversifying and you're not in like if you're not in the market i i personally think that's a mistake and you're a little bit behind the bottom's probably behind us no guarantees it could still come but i wouldn't want to make that bet with a large portion of my portfolio so uh i believe that the risk on rally we are seeing right now is not only a combination of the belief that the fed u-turn is now charted that the inflation decline is now charted that we are now actually in a recession and now is buy time i've always said that the time to buy is in a recession and i've also said since the beginning of the year that we will probably face a paper recession and when we face that paper recession you're going to want to buy because you're going to get the tucker carlsons of the world that are going to come out and talk to this market and consumers and everything and then you're going to get some consumers who are going to panic and start spending less money but so far they haven't been now we'll see now that we're officially in a recession this is another downside risk so i don't want to sound like mr bull man i want to be clear we do have the downside risk that now that we are actually in a recession every day consumers who have not been paying attention to the fact that we're in a recession might start thinking themselves oh my god we're actually in a recession i mean biden might not think so because he's trying to redefine it but we are actually in a recession that's scary maybe we should spend less honey it is possible that we have been constraining while the recession was actually happening and that consumers average consumers may now just begin to do so so you do have to be careful there could still be additional downside risks for consumer stocks however they've just been so depressed i don't know how much more they can go down but again if we get a bad cpi read in august or september expect massive discounts and potentially another two to three weeks of red following a bad read so in my opinion be careful with yolo bets if you want to upside hedge you can get in the money calls that give you some exposure to leverage without exposure to margin and if your stock yolos up there you go now you can take your attendees but be careful yoloing a large part of your portfolio stay strong out there use the fifty percent of coupon code down below it expires tonight so you may as well take advantage of it and folks will see you when i'm ready to launch the series a thanks so much goodbye
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