저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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기술주 전반을 팔면 큰 실수라는 결론. 배경: 뱅크오브아메리카 메릴이 무역전쟁 우려로 기술주 비중 축소를 권고했으나, 크레이머는 이에 반대. 기술 섹터 정의의 모호성: 과거 반도체·방산·IBM 중심에서 현재는 결제(스퀘어), 청바지 디자인(레비스), 이커머스(쇼피파이) 등으로 확장되어 섹터 단위 매도는 부적절하다고 주장. 소프트웨어 서비스(SaaS): 세일즈포스는 무역 전쟁이 아닌 '필수불가결성(indispensability)'이 성장 동력이라고 평가. 디지털 전환을 못하면 도태되는 기업이 고객이 되므로 장기 수혜. 관세 리스크: 트럼프 대통령의 트윗으로 단기 급락 가능성은 인정하나, 이후 알고리즘 매도 후 반등이 빠를 것으로 전망. 개별 종목: 콜스(KSS)는 실적 실망 및 실존적 위기로 평가, 온라인·가격 경쟁력 부족으로 지출 대비 효과 의문. 마이크로소프트·애플·아마존·넷플릭스 등 대형 기술주는 중국 노출도가 상대적으로 낮거나 관리 능력이 뛰어나 긍정적. 스냅(SNAP)은 젊은 층 희소성 측면에서 가치가 있다고 봄. 결론: 기술주 ETF 일괄 매도는 '모리스한(moronic)' 접근이며, 실제 잘 운영되는 SaaS·대형 기술주를 팔면 무역전쟁 종료 후 후회할 것이라는 조언. 출연자 전망: 기술주 중장기 낙관, 단기 관세발 변동성은 인정.
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a westcoast Kramer a good take over I want to make friends me I'm out here in California to help you make some money it's my job as such the center team but they just can't is taking trouble have the stops cutting too expensive do we need to worry about what might happen to the group if President Trump can't find common ground with President Xi of China and the terrorists get jacked up in December which is certainly now the fought with the market at such lofty levels even after a day with Adele dipped 102 points s to be back slid point O six percent then a stag game point to 4% it's something a lot of money managers are talking about today Bank of America Merrill put it out pretty succinctly in a cleverly titled piece called changes about how to reposition for 2020 and the big takeaway was that it is time to lighten up on my favorite group which is technology their thesis the others were worried about the trade war shifting to a tech warrior for the election Chinese companies only buying from Chinese suppliers American companies only buying from nine tiny suppliers plus you've also got the strong dollar to worry about and with tech rally lately you've got a crowd of weak handed shareholders who head for the hills at the first sign of trouble so are they right now we can't dismiss this argument out of hand we've heard some genuinely discouraging things from major players and technology here idle just last week Cisco it gave a downbeat forecast for precisely the reasons the Bank of America Merrill cited even though I think the stock represents good value you're good dividend good balance sheet sums ok growth investors have soured on especially some of the big guys because CEO Chuck Robbins and CFO Kellie Kramer actually told a pretty grim story about the future however either they be a big mistake to give up on the whole tech sector here I'm gonna tell you why first and most importantly there's no tack intact I wanted me buy that listen to me when I got in this business decades ago there wasn't much technical you had some semiconductor companies some defense contractors IBM and five of their competitors known as bunch Burroughs UNIVAC NCR controlled data and Honeywell this was back when the mainframe was still getting big iron we called it by the mid-eighties bertha personal computer explosion of information technology companies and their enablers all worth owning then in the 90s we got the internet boom and that's when things started to change suddenly tech stocks weren't necessarily in the tech business something that's only become more pronounced over time these days the whole idea of the tech sector itself I find it misleading first is we have square one tonight that's a payment processing play that was making millions of small businesses competitive with larger ones is that tech we at Levi's on last night they design new tech to make more personalized jeans without a lot of despoil edge of the world and use a lot less water hey that sounds like tectum a Shopify it makes it possible for small operators to sell things on the web retail or tech what about something like Twitter or Apple video games I mean that technology is chock full with the most sophisticated chips we have but is that a media business or tap how about the hardware the powers it is tech still tech if it's in the garage if it's in the living room the kitchen in the bedroom most important where do we categorize this software as a service place like ServiceNow was just was out of the SME 500 and voltic big or dobby which went from being a digital publishing play to an e-commerce juggernaut or yes the company that is the reason why we're out here salesforce.com I mean salesforce.com practically invented the industry with its customer relations management software platform I don't know if we would have called that tech a few years ago you've got billions and billions and billions of dollars of software sales that I don't think to be contained by the rubric pack something like the ones that you're supposed to sell because Bank of America Morrell says lighten up when I think about that piece I think about the things they're worried about they may apply to hardware specialized hardware but they've done much to do with the software as a service base something like Salesforce isn't really driven by international trade it's driven by its own indispensability the word I want you to think about indispensability to other businesses that need to digitize or die indispensability is the driving force not miniaturization but making it so that you can compute and trade in a way that makes it so that you can stay a as a business sure their stocks will get hit a president Trump tweets something like yes quote I am sick and tired of my good friend President Xi and I am taking Chinese tariffs up 30 percent in two weeks because he won't even buy pork to keep his people fed end quote hey you know what that actually sounds like a tweet he'd make the real Donald Trump in fact these stocks will probably be the first to go down again because the algorithms that were so ruled by sell them on any trade worries but after that their stocks tend to come bouncing back with alacrity because these companies are forces of nature all right let me put these ten worries in perspective this morning Cole's KSS but department store chain that mistakenly my Chapel Trust had warm out a big position but owned a position reported what I regard as a massively disappointing quarter although to listen to management do you think that they had some sort of blowout they were congratulating ourselves it was a head scratcher which is something I advise you not to do if you have as much spray-painted makeup one are you getting a lot of dirt on your fingernails I think Cole's is in an existential crisis frankly it's going full jean-paul Sartre you don't pronounce the re we're in a period of monumental turmoil for retail where the only real survivors will be the companies to dominate in the off price space or the ones that dominate online Kohl's KSS kiss me stupid it doesn't either it has to find a way to either become the lowest cost seller which I don't think it has the ability to do or it has to spend fortress develop a digital strategy that's good enough to compete with Walmart or Target or Amazon and I don't think they think they need to it to listen today's call I don't think it's possible because manager seems to be in total denial but how much it needs to spend when tech before can even get in the game they think they're doing great hey when you're doing great and you're not well that's how your stock gets okay that's how it goes down 20% like it did today but the lesson here is simple if you want to stay competitive in retail you need to pay these software-as-a-service companies of fortune yeah you got to ride in big checks that's why I rebelled against this I get you need to lighten up on tech because it's because there's too many people on it it's a club to Crowley let me look come on the towers will hurt no indispensability how about the biggest companies on earth Microsoft into an apple about those Microsoft remains on the president but they've done such a good job of diversifying away from the plain old PC business that I can't imagine their numbers being heard that much by China its azure is really the king there that's right there their cloud business Apple train will always be an issue with Apple because they can't afford to turn their backs on roughly 1.5 billion people in China but Apple's managed to thread the needle during the trade war because they've created millions upon millions of jobs in both countries and it has the confidence of both leaders and sure they may just be able to transcend the whole conflict Wow hats off to Tim Cook oh let's not forget the rest of fangers Facebook outlet Amazon Netflix these companies have no Chinese dispersion to speak up and when you ain't got nothing you got nothing to lose thank you Bob Dylan of Easterners per share so here's the bottom line if you feel compelled to sell tech ask yourself what you're selling if you're dumping an ETF be my guest those are just moronic amalgams of stocks slapped together by people who make a living by convincing you that the tech sector is a real cohesive thing but if you're dumped the kind of tech stocks that are working here especially the better run suffers the service names I think you make a big mistake and one that you'll regret when this trade war eventually blows over and it will Wes and North Carolina Wes hi Jim love what you do thank you my stock is snapped and the stocks up 9% recently and on top of some fairly decent gains what are your near term versus long term thoughts okay I think that snap is is what I regard it's got a scarcity problem there's just not enough snaps out there you need to be able to reach that demographic they've got that demographic Bochum speaking younger people and that's why I think that the franchise is worth a lot which they didn't have so many different classes of sight that wish that they didn't have a pass to stock they may say you can't take it over because boy they sure should be I don't give up on the whole of tech here if you're compelled to sell ask yourself what are you selling but please don't dump the kind of tech that's working out here in San Francisco that we've been profiling for you only have money type and CBC one market Warren Buffett is betting on Restoration Hardware should you do the same I'm sitting down with the CEO of the luxury furniture retail then sales forces growing Dreamforce from 1300 ten years in 2003 to more than a hundred and seventy thousand and a pilgrimage to San Francisco what tech trends can be uncovered from the club's biggest conference I've got the exclusive the co-ceo Marc Benioff and then but then Vivian declining attack today is it primetime to buy you know how I feel let's talk to the CEO to find out tne 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