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joining me now on yahoo finance presents is ray dalio ray good to see you again and welcome back to yahoo finance uh really appreciate you taking some time i i stumbled upon on youtube uh principles for dealing with the changing world order why nations succeed and fail this posting by you has amassed close to 10 million views eventually out of these conflicts whether they're violent or not come new winners who get together and restructure the losers debts and political systems and establish the new world water then the old cycle and empire ends and the new one begins and they do it all over again that's a lot of detail i just threw at you to paint a picture of how the typical big cycle transpires of course not all of them transpire in exactly this way but most largely do take us through how you came up with it and why did you put this together well the the study i needed to understand things that were happening happening to us i'm a global macro investor and there are things that are happening in our lifetimes that never happened before the amount of spending financed by debt the amount of internal conflict the rise of great power in the form of challenge china to challenge the existing world order and so on the alliances with um russia and all of that and so um i needed to study the rise in decline of reserve currency so i went back 500 years to see uh the dutch gilder and the patterns of the past it helps me and then when i did the study i did a book because i thought it was important to pass along and then um i wanted to make it very clear and digestible so the animation that you're talking about is very clear and digestible so people can put what's now happening in the perspective of these historical patterns which helps people uh think about what's coming next i i will bring this more current uh momentarily but i do want to ask how does this type of exercise or these type of this type of research by you help you become a better investor well it helps me understand what's likely to come next um you know like for example um right now the us is imposing sanctions sanctions are it's a form of economic warfare and it has a big implication for the dollar right um okay now others are trying to get out of the dollar system there's a dollar system that now is being uh changed um uh india is dealing directly with russia and um holders of dollars and nominated assets um don't want to hold those dollar assets if they feel that they're going to be um grabbed and so on so what's happening now um has happened many times before and without that kind of perspective i wouldn't be able to deal with it and i learned this in in my past uh because um well just quickly uh in 1971 uh i was clerking on the floor of the new york stock exchange and president nixon gets on and he says um we're not going to give you the gold that the dollar is backed by and we had a devaluation it took me by surprise i worked on walked on the floor of the stock exchange i thought it was going to go down a lot it went up a lot and that's because i never experienced the currency devaluation i found the same exact thing when i studied history same exact announcement took place on march 5th 1933 by roosevelt and had the same effect so i understood then how history before me was important studying the great depression allowed me and bridgewater to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis if i didn't study that what's happening now is very relevant is is a guide to the past as a guide to what's happening now let's talk about what is happening now is globalization and just using this in the context of what you have written here is globalization at a point of failure or has it failed um as as as we are approaching um a challenging of the world order in other words a great power challenging another there is an increased um likelihood of some kind of war there are five kinds of wars there's a trade war a technology war a geopolitical influence war a capital war which we're in the midst of and then there's a military war and those things drive countries to be self-sufficient and independent and as a result globalization diminishes and nationalizat nationalism increases yes and what does that mean for financial markets because by and large i think a lot of folks would be surprised that stocks are hanging tough all things considered well it's it yeah it's not the stock market stock market so it's in the book it uh takes you through the stock markets during war periods and so the only thing that matters for stocks is the the cash flows and as you get into the conflict that's a different story um if you begin to see as it progresses those that are affected by the individual of events um haven't have an effect for example tech stocks but um anyway in answer to your question how does it affect the markets it affects the value of money most fundamentally like what we're seeing now uh is that the value of money when you run very large deficits and you have you have to spend a lot you have to spend a lot on uh social programs you have to spend a lot on uh defense you have to spend a lot on environmental programs and so on and so when you spend a lot more money than you earn um then you have to print money to make up that difference to make the purchases and then that devalues money and so it's like the examples i gave you of the two currencies evaluations that you had before 1971 led to the inflationary period of the 1970s and so you have the stock market yes the stock market goes up and other things but cash is trash and people get them begin to learn that um the bonds that they're holding have negative returns and it starts to change the value of money the value of money the value of dollars and so on so money goes into other assets it produces more of an inflation and you start to enter a certain type of environment and the environment that we're in is beginning to be very much like that of the 1970s
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